There hasn’t been a red July in the past decade

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It’s July again. Markets have noticed. For ten straight years, the S&P 500 has finished the month in the green. From 2015 through 2024, July never closed negative. Not once. And the first sessions of 2025 are already moving the same way.

The numbers are locked in. The S&P 500 averaged a 3.4% gain in July over the past decade. That puts it second only to November. In 2022, it ran 9.1%. In 2020, 5.5%. Even during inflation whiplash and interest rate chaos in 2023, July still closed up 3.1%. The trend held. Every time.

2024 tried to break the streak. Rates held high. Yields hit the ceiling. Yet July still ended green. Up 1.2%. That was month number ten. Ten for ten.