Consumer sentiment among young people (18–34) is near an all-time low—worse than during the pandemic, the Great Recession, and even stagflation.
This morning's US retail sales data — an overall growth of 0.2% (below the 0.4% consensus forecast) and a "control group" contraction of 0.1% — are consistent with two actionable hypotheses:
Greater consumer stress is expected as lower-income households, in particular, are…— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) November 25, 2025
Private companies eliminated an average of 13,500 jobs every week for the past four weeks.
— More Perfect Union (@MorePerfectUS) November 25, 2025
The labor market is deteriorating at a pace that should worry anyone focused on the health of the economy. ADP just released data showing private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs per week over the four weeks ending November 8, 2025 and that's a catastrophic deterioration… pic.twitter.com/xLaMhs7VFr
— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) November 25, 2025
US Consumer Confidence Nov: 88.7, Exp. 93.3, Last 95.5
United States consumer confidence sagged in November as households worried about jobs and their financial situation, likely in part because of the recently ended government shutdown.
The Conference Board said on Tuesday its consumer confidence index dropped to 88.7 this month, from an upwardly revised 95.5 in October, hitting its lowest level since April.