The window for rational de-escalation is open but requires careful handling by all parties involved.

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The war edges toward a controlled endgame faster than expected.

THE SHORT BEAR
@TheShortBear
The war is about to end.

step by step.

U.S. officials are openly blaming/distancing from Israel’s recent strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure (fuel storage and refineries near Tehran hit in the last few days).

Leaks and statements (including Energy Secretary Chris Wright) make clear no U.S. plans to target Iran’s oil sector, with Trump framing it as Israel’s moves amid “Operation Epic Fury” successes, while U.S. gas prices spike ahead of midterms.

-> distancing from the war and creating exit

The new Iranian leader was appointed right now: The Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei (56, hardliner with deep IRGC ties) as Supreme Leader on March 8.

This comes amid fuel shortages/blackouts from the oil hits, with regime pushing IRGC loyalty to hold things together under the new leader.

-> Trump openly said the Israeli strike on the oil is pushing Iranians back to the regime. This will likely be twisted into the leader being acceptable due to Israel.

The target has shifted from total destruction to destroying the nuclear capacities: Early strikes hit command, air defenses, navy, missiles, and oil. Recent ones (last 48-72 hours) focused on nuclear, confirmed hits on covert Minzadehei weapons site, Natanz entrances, Isfahan structures, and SPND/Mojdeh labs, to neuter breakout potential.

-> Target narrowed to Nuclear, attacks going straight for them. This will be the propaganda “win”, shifting back to the original plan and reminding people of the successful summer attack. We’ll use the attacks over the last week and reframe them as a win for the safety of the Golf and weakening the regime.

France is repositioning its navy (Charles de Gaulle carrier group to Mediterranean, plus European/UK backing) to support secure shipping lanes amid Hormuz threats. Iran says the strait is open but closed to U.S./Israeli-linked ships, others pass at risk, with traffic near standstill and only handfuls crossing recently.

-> Iran indicated they would let ships through and the president apologized to the Golf countries. The world is getting ready for the straight to reopen.

All of this is pointing towards one thing.

Oil is getting out of control (exports disrupted, prices surging, Hormuz chaos), Trump knows he can’t get involved in a major/prolonged war right into midterms, he’s signaled Iran is already calling for a deal (“a bit late”) and expects wrap-up in weeks.

My best guess:

We (U.S.) secure or destroy all remaining nuclear storage, enrichment paths, and facilities, declare the program crippled “for the foreseeable future or destroyed”, then let Israel enforce it stays gone (overflights, strikes on reconstitution) even as we promise a full U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

For this Israel saves face and full blame as the exit is built.

Iran keeps its regime (now Mojtaba + IRGC-hardened) but loses the bomb option, with conditional sanctions relief for compliance. Trump claims victory, no boots, no endless war, without midterm damage.

Keep in mind the naval and air superiority as well as the decreasing amount of available drones and missiles (both normal and ballistic) which put Iran under major pressure.

The pieces are aligning fast, driven by oil pain, leadership change, and nuclear “mission accomplished” optics.

Escalation risks linger (Iranian missiles, Gulf threats), but endgame pressure is mounting.

This scenario presents Israel with the war mission they require to sustain Bibi’s trajectory, while Trump secures a symbolic victory, and Iran manages to salvage its reputation and retain the IRGC as its leadership.

However, I genuinely hope that all parties involved are rational actors in this situation.

My primary concern is Israel’s potential to escalate the conflict and manipulate the US in this matter. It is undeniable that Israel played a significant role in this escalation.

There is a quick out, will they take it?



AJ Inapi (Allan)
@aj_inapi
Dear Americans,

The temporary increase you may see at the gas pump is not because the United States is running out of oil.

The U.S. is currently the largest oil producer in the world.

What’s happening is simple economics.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. When that route is disrupted during a conflict, global markets react immediately.

Oil is priced globally. So even when America produces its own energy, a global supply shock pushes prices up everywhere.

At the same time, buyers around the world begin competing for alternative supply – including American-produced oil – which temporarily drives prices higher.

Markets always react first. Then they stabilize.

Once shipping routes reopen and the situation settles in the coming days or weeks, energy markets will normalize again.

Short-term volatility.
Long-term energy security.

That’s the reality of global energy markets.

Don’t listen to fake news media and so called experts.

Multiple news outlets report that Israeli airstrikes have hit fuel depots and oil storage facilities near Tehran and in Alborz province, and Iran and other sources describe these as attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said the United States will not target Iran’s energy infrastructure and has emphasized that Washington is not planning strikes on oil or gas facilities, even as oil prices spike due to the conflict.

Other reporting indicates that U.S. officials were surprised by the scope of Israel’s strikes on fuel depots, and there is concern in Washington that hitting infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians could backfire by rallying public support for the Iranian regime and spooking energy markets.

https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/middle-east/israeli-strikes-hit-iranian-oil-facilities-tehran-tanker-drivers-killed-1380161

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/08/us-energy-chief-spike-gas-prices

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/08/us-dismayed-israel-iran-fuel-strikes