The US unemployment rate surpasses 36-month average

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  • Unemployment Rate Increase:
  • 36-Month Moving Average:
    • The fact that the unemployment rate has crossed above its 36-month moving average is noteworthy.
    • Historically, such occurrences have often preceded rapid spikes in the jobless rate.
  • Economic Cycles and Recessions:
    • In previous economic cycles, when the unemployment rate crossed above its moving average, it was often followed by economic challenges.
    • The coincidence with the economy falling into a recession is a cause for vigilance.
  • Job Losses:
    • 1.5 million Americans have lost their full-time jobs in just 6 months.
    • This sharp decline in employment further underscores the potential strain on the labor market.
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While it’s too early to definitively conclude that the labor market is cracking, these indicators warrant close monitoring.

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