Pandemic-era excess savings….gone!
*If* the latest data from the San Francisco Fed is correct, we may finally get an economic slowdown + rate cuts. pic.twitter.com/B4H4DgI06T
— Puru Saxena (@saxena_puru) May 7, 2024
In the hustle and bustle of the American economy, there’s a story that’s not often told in the headlines—a story that affects millions of households across the nation. It’s a tale of soaring credit card debt, vanishing savings, and the precarious dance of consumer finances.
Imagine a chart that speaks volumes, revealing the unsettling truth: while credit card debt reaches unprecedented heights, personal savings plummet to historic lows. It’s a rollercoaster ride fueled by the pandemic’s excess savings, now evaporated into thin air, leaving families teetering on the edge of financial uncertainty.
Recent data from the San Francisco Fed hints at darker days ahead, hinting at an economic slowdown and potential rate cuts as consumer confidence wavers. The US Conference Board’s consumer expectations index paints a grim picture, sinking to a dismal -76.5, echoing the fears and uncertainties gripping households nationwide.
But the real story lies in the Citi Economic Surprise Index—a tale of two data sets. While hard data like GDP and CPI deliver disappointing news, softer indicators like consumer confidence lag behind, failing to capture the true essence of America’s economic landscape.
For months, analysts have sounded the alarm, warning of an impending downturn. Yet, amidst the false hope and misplaced optimism, many overlooked the signs of trouble brewing beneath the surface. Consumer spending, once hailed as a beacon of economic strength, now reveals itself as a mirage—a product of misplaced confidence and wishful thinking.
As the index plummets to meet the harsh realities of the economy, it serves as a poignant reminder: America’s debt crisis is no longer a distant threat—it’s here, and it’s casting a long shadow over the nation’s financial future.
The US consumer in one chart: credit card debt record high, personal savings rate record low pic.twitter.com/9julvoPQHb
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 7, 2024
🇺🇸 US Conference Board consumer expectations less current conditions -76.5
𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻!
Chart: @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/98Nc2Pg0KU
— Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) May 8, 2024
If you pay attention to one chart today, let it be this one.
This is the Citi Economic Surprise Index. It takes account of changes in economic data that either positively or negatively surprised analysts, and came in above or below their original expectations.
Hard data are… pic.twitter.com/HI37v5jh4t
— Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) May 7, 2024