The major escalation with the Bab al-Mandab Strait could push easily oil to $200

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In another major escalation, we may lose another ~7 million barrels of daily oil supply.

A key advisor to Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is now threatening to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

“If the White House thinks of repeating its stupid mistakes, it will quickly realize that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single signal,” he said.

On top of the ~7 million barrels of daily oil supply flowing through this Strait, ~22% of global seaborne container trade travels through Bab al-Mandab each year.

Between the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, we could see as much as 25 million barrels in daily oil supply offline.

And, Iran has officially rejected a US proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for temporary ceasefire, per WSJ.

Oil prices are setting up for $120+/barrel.

The real signal here is not an imminent confirmed shutdown but the growing sensitivity of markets to chokepoint rhetoric. Hormuz is structurally critical, Bab al-Mandab is already fragile due to regional conflict spillover, and together they create a narrative environment where traders rapidly price tail risks even when no actual disruption has occurred yet.