Powell gets shown the door in May while Trump lines up the softest replacement possible. Markets bet hard on rate cuts like 2021 never happened. Oil pushes higher on actual shortages and the Fed inherits an even weaker leader picked purely for loyalty. This follows the exact 1970s route with fresher memes attached. Politics wins every round and the bonfire builds faster this cycle.
The FED is fucked https://t.co/BVQjcvd9qV
— Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro (@AxiomMarkets) April 16, 2026
3/ Here's what the market is pricing right now:
→ 2 rate cuts in 2026
→ CPI back to 2% by year-end
→ Unemployment stable at 4%Here's what oil at $95 actually means:
→ Gasoline rips by June
→ Headline CPI back to 3.5%+
→ Core PCE sticky at 3%+These two pictures…
— Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro (@AxiomMarkets) April 16, 2026
5/ Now add the political layer.
Powell's term as Chair ends in May. Trump picks the successor.
The current frontrunners all have one thing in common: they're more dovish than Powell.
So the market thinks: "Whoever comes in will cut anyway."
That's why stocks are at ATH.
That…
— Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro (@AxiomMarkets) April 16, 2026
7/ What does history say?
1970s Burns: kept rates too low under Nixon's pressure. Result → stagflation for a decade.
1980s Volcker: hiked to 20%, killed inflation, killed the economy.
2021 Powell: "transitory" took 18 months to unwind.Every Fed that bowed to political…
— Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro (@AxiomMarkets) April 16, 2026
10/ Watch three things:
→ June 12: May CPI print. If it's above 3.2%, rate cuts are dead. → Trump's Fed nominee: more dovish than expected = dollar sell-off. → Dated Brent: if it holds $140+, the physical market is telling the truth.
Any one of these can trigger the unwind.…
— Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro (@AxiomMarkets) April 16, 2026
The US economy could face a major supply shock from the conflict in the Middle East, New York Fed president John Williams has said
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 17, 2026