The economy looks healthy on paper. GDP is strong, unemployment is low. But beneath the surface, Americans are stuck – in their jobs, their homes and their financial situations. A quiet loss of mobility may be the biggest risk facing us today…
By Peter Reagan
Strong U.S. economic growth is one of the big recent wins we’ve heard about. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the standard measure of economic activity and health) rose a surprising amount in the third quarter. Many businesses have joined the White House in celebrating this news.
And it’s easy to understand why. After all, the GDP is a measure, in dollars, of how much “business” (buying and selling of goods and services) actually took place. If GDP is up, then it means people and businesses are buying and selling more. More economic activity, more transactions, is interpreted to mean that life is improving – at least financially.
This makes sense! Increases in GDP should mean that people are better off than they were before. It’s good news!
So what’s been puzzling me is the tension between great headline numbers and the overall economic mood I’m hearing about from friends, family and Birch Gold customers… We already know that GDP isn’t necessarily prosperity.
Today I’m highlighting a few key aspects of that economic outlook and trying to understand what’s going on.
“The hiring recession”
One of the more peculiar things is that job growth that typically goes with a growing economy isn’t happening much.
In fact, PBS called 2025 “the weakest year for job growth since the pandemic.”
Of course, with a few hundred years of U.S. history, the weakest year for job growth out of the last five years may not be so much of a big deal.
Except that the prospects for getting better jobs is bad enough that a recent Monster.com survey shows a 50% decrease in the number of people looking for jobs in 2026.
Why? Fewer job options to change to and what someone called “an increasingly demoralizing job-search process.” In fact, Sophie Caldwell reports that over half of laid-off workers needed to apply for over 50 jobs (one in five needed to apply for over 100 jobs!)
It’s not hard to see why they’re feeling discouraged about their job prospects and are just looking to hold on to what they have.
What else would you do if you were in what one economist called “a hiring recession in the United States”?
So, of course, workers are staying where they are. Especially those who have families – after all, they have mouths to feed and bills to pay, as the song goes.
Opportunities we can’t afford to take
Americans are staying put when it comes to their jobs, and they’re also staying put when it comes to where they live. (I reported on my concerns about this just a few weeks ago.)
Why? Because they can’t afford to move.
They are stuck in their homes just like they are stuck with their jobs. Primarily because:
- Home prices went so far up that most buyers can no longer afford a home
- Mortgage rates went so far up that homeowners can’t afford to trade up
They want to change jobs. They want to move. A huge part of economic opportunity comes from mobility – going to a state that has more business-friendly laws, lower taxes, better schools or a more affordable cost of living.
Overall, families are increasingly delaying many big decisions. Due to financial stress or due to more general uncertainty about what the future holds. In fact, bankruptcies may be the only big decision that people aren’t delaying on. Those rose 11% in 2025 – another sign that families don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Understand, though, this isn’t a recession. GDP is up significantly – again, this is good news! Corporate profits are up, too – so businesses are doing okay.
To be frank, though, I’m less interested in abstractions like “productivity” and “profits” than I am in the typical American family.
And, despite the truly significant amount of good news, everyday folks just aren’t feeling it.
What is really going on?
Since this isn’t a recession, it can seem confusing as to how to describe the current situation, and the simplest way to put it is that families increasingly find themselves frozen in place.
From affordability, or uncertainty – or both.
If you don’t know what’s coming, how can you effectively plan your next step? Much less your next several steps?
It’s as though the middle class is so worried about the economy and their finances they’re just waiting and hoping for their own personal situations to improve. For a better job offer to come along, for the housing market to reprice and mortgages to become affordable… It’s the economic equivalent of waiting for Santa Claus.
I’ve never been a big believer in the “head in the sand” mindset. I think we should focus on what we can do to improve our situations. But what can you do when you can’t predict the future with any amount of confidence?
Possibly the smartest choice is to take a “prevention” stance on economic uncertainty.
You want to prioritize financial security. The feeling of real security that comes from tried and true, historically tested decisions. Protection from inflation and economic downturns – the certainty that comes along with stable stores of purchasing power.
The good news is that, regardless of the type of uncertainty that you’re dealing with now or that you will deal with in the future, you can take steps now to diversify into inflation-resistant stores of wealth to make sure that you are always in control of your own financial life.
In my years watching families navigate uncertainty, I’ve come to believe diversification with physical precious metals is a great solution. You can start your due diligence by learning more about the benefits of physical gold ownership, or request your free 2026 Guide to Precious Metals IRAs here.