The collapse of the Chinese property market could lead to a global economic disaster

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As Risks Mount, China Tells Banks to Roll Over Local Government Debts

China is pushing state banks to extend local government debt amid growing concerns over economic instability. Local debt rose to 76% of the GDP in 2022, highlighting financial risks intensified by a property crisis and pandemic fallout. This move may challenge bank operations and inadvertently increase financial recklessness. The property sector’s decline and significant upcoming debt maturities further amplify these concerns.

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The IMF informs that the real estate crisis in China may intensify, posing a significant threat to the global economy.

In its October edition of the World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reiterated its Asia economy outlook for 2023 at 4.6%. The region reported an economic growth of 3.9% in 2022.

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Growth in the Asia Pacific region is projected to rise from 3.9% in 2022 to 4.6% in 2023, unchanged from the April projection. The growth is led by the recovery following China’s post-pandemic-reopening and better-than-expected growth in the first half of 2023 in Japan and India. The IMF particularly highlights the strength of the service sector in these economies.

However, the global lender has lowered its growth projections for Asia Pacific to 4.2% for 2024 from the 4.4% in April amid indications of slowing growth momentum and investment in the third quarter. This reflects weaker external demand especially in Southeast Asia and Japan as well as dwindling real estate investment in China.

Moreover, as the US economy has begun focusing on the service sector, instead of goods, Asia is unable to witness greater demand. The IMF also explained, “…US policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act are re-orienting demand toward domestic sources rather than foreign, providing a smaller boost to imports from Asia.”