The bond market is the adult in the room and people keep ignoring it. The leaders don’t save the market, they roll over first.

People keep acting like stocks only go up because that’s all they’ve ever seen, but the bond market doesn’t care about your vibes. When yields climb, it’s basically gravity, and gravity always wins. Everyone talks AI, memes, whatever, meanwhile valuations are stretched to the moon and the government keeps spending like money is free.

If the biggest tech names are blowing almost all their cash flow on AI capex, like 96%, then the “bulletproof balance sheet” story is already dead. No cash left for buybacks, no cushion, just spend spend spend and pray the payoff shows up later.

https://twitter.com/MauiBoyMacro/status/2020253095633334497