The blue wave: Democrats are currently favored to win all three major elections—New York City Mayor, Virginia Governor, and New Jersey Governor

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https://twitter.com/Ronxyz00/status/1985335950403060144

Traders on the prediction-market platform Kalshi are now assigning a meaningful probability to the scenario in which all three major Election Day winners come from the Democratic Party.

The prediction market platform reflects speculative wagers, not how voters will actually cast their ballots on Nov. 4.

Traders place the odds of cemocratic socialist Zohran Mamdani winning the New York mayoral race at 92% while former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an Independent, follows as the next most likely contender, with Kalshi bettors assigning him an 8% chance of clinching the city’s top office.

Meanwhile, Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa trails at 1%.

…

Across the Hudson River in New Jersey, traders on the Kalshi prediction market give Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, ex-prosecutor and sitting congresswoman, an 86% chance of winning. Meanwhile, traders assign a 16% chance for Republican contender Jack Ciattarelli.

…

In the final days of the campaign, Sherrill appeared alongside Democratic Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Wes Moore of Maryland — both widely seen as potential 2028 presidential contenders.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/prediction-markets-favor-democrats-new-york-new-jersey-virginia-election-day-races

Over 735,000 New York City residents have cast their ballots early for the mayoral election between Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, independent Andrew Cuomo, and Republican Curtis Silwa.

Early voting ended Sunday at 5 p.m.

Mayoral elections typically don’t attract record participation. On average, a million residents cast a vote. New York election expert Jerry Skurnik told the Daily News that he expects turnout this year to reach 1 1 1/2 million or more.

The race with the highest turnout in the city’s modern history was the mayoral race in 1965, which saw over 2.5 million votes cast.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/live-blog/2025-elections-updates-new-jersey-virginia-governor-new-york-mayor/?highlight=3872838

 

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