After months of speculation about what duties will be implemented, we are finally starting to fully see the impact of tariff policies in the government cashflows data. Today the blended rate stands at around ~17.5%. pic.twitter.com/94MZRJOiFj
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) June 2, 2025
The treasury daily statement gives insight into the duties collected in pretty close to real time. With nearly a full month of May in place, we see total collections at almost 40bln or a near 500bln pace. Assuming ‘24 import levels, that implies a ~15% blended rate. pic.twitter.com/P9DQBMXRgm
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) June 2, 2025
While there is a lot of uncertainty about the path forward on tariffs from a legal perspective, there is pretty clear room for the admin to at least extend this roughly 15% level for 150 days if they lose in court.https://t.co/jN3dAFfk4h
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) June 2, 2025
The surge in imported good prices at these tariff levels without a commensurate rise in wage income is likely to create a drag on real consumer spending ahead. pic.twitter.com/e5pNAwRltp
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) June 2, 2025
The US looks increasingly on a path for ~15% tariffs in the next couple quarters as legal cases get worked out and the admin extends at that level using Sec 122 if needed.
Even though those tariffs are lower than they have been, it still represents the highest rates in 100yrs.
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) June 2, 2025
We are only now seeing the initial impacts of these higher duties and over the next 3-6m the outcomes will flow into the rest of the real economy dragging on the HH demand well before benefits from the BBB come in.
It looks like a reality not well reflected in market pricing.
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) June 2, 2025
1. We have been tracking the corporate defaults, downgrades and bankruptcies.
– The layoffs in June will affect multiple industries, including retail, pharmaceutical, food and beverage, airlines, package delivery and more (WARN)
– Layoffs in the workforce vary by company, with…
— Unicus (@UnicusResearch) June 2, 2025
3. More.. pic.twitter.com/vEpSFEMIWd
— Unicus (@UnicusResearch) June 2, 2025
5. Contd… pic.twitter.com/M5GSbiCoQF
— Unicus (@UnicusResearch) June 2, 2025
7. This is NOT good.
This is very very BAD.The amount of employees that will be laid-off from the mentioned companies will not be in the unemployment data for a while – here is the LAG breakdown:
– when an employee gets laid off, most commonly, they file for unemployment the…
— Unicus (@UnicusResearch) June 2, 2025