Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
US Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% in February, significantly missing the 0.5% decline expectation as transportation demand craters. The manufacturing floor is falling out while the Fed stays hawkish. This is the “hard landing” signal the bulls are desperately trying to ignore. Bank of America warns of a 0.9% March CPI jump driven by a …
🚨 JUST IN: Steve Witkoff reveals the shocking things Iran told him BEHIND CLOSE DOORS "The Iranians have the 'inalienable right to enrich.' Then we heard they possessed enough 60% enriched material, 460 kilograms, to make 11 ATOMIC BOMBS." "They would not give up… pic.twitter.com/fLbdljJtT0 — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) March 26, 2026 Special Envoy to …
They're hiding a job market collapse. Hiding the job market collapse keeps the stock market higher. Keeping the stock market higher lets the top 10% keep spending. What happens when the charade ends? https://t.co/cDYrPPyai7 pic.twitter.com/38KbSeVM7f — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) February 17, 2026 Cass Freight index plunges. Only weaker at the depths of the GFC. pic.twitter.com/lWKGk8TVcX …
Gold is roaring because the US has stopped pretending. The polite version is “strong dollar policy.” The real version is: we will accept and even welcome, a softer dollar to win the trade war and rebuild American industry Gold Made an ATH at $5,500+ and the dollar keeps sliding. Most people think it’s just “safe-haven …
The U.S. labor market ended 2025 on a soft note, with job creation in December less than expected, according to a report Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 50,000 for the month, lower than the downwardly revised 56,000 in November and short of the Dow Jones estimate for …
The Trump Administration needs much weaker macro data then it is getting right now (if it wants more cuts) – especially on Friday for NFP… https://t.co/ieRTtttGSf pic.twitter.com/BqRpsp1VS3 — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) January 8, 2026 THE STOCK MARKET CRASH IS SET UP PERFECTLY! 1. Consumers are still spending money they don't have.– Consumer spending makes up …
None of this pricing makes sense and someone is going to be left holding the bag. That awkward moment where investors ask themselves why they paid 55x earnings for Costco. pic.twitter.com/ISo4SyWMiK — Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) December 6, 2025 Ok so serious question why is Tesla worth 15 times more given the average earnings and half …
Wonder why Germany is heading towards a crisis similar to Greece 13 years ago? Because the real government debt is 130% of GDP not 65% During the weekend a friend of mine claimed how German debt is still “low” and the country has room for to absorb ~900bn$ of spending that will mostly be channeled …
Apple did not deliver innovation. It delivered a thinner phone with weaker specs, a higher price, and hidden compromises disguised as features. The iPhone 17 Air costs $999, has a single rear camera, and offers less battery life than the cheaper iPhone 17. Apple described it as “a paradox you have to hold to believe” …
Republicans just ended Federal car mileage mandates. The rules added $6,000 to the cost of a car. They siphoned billions from American car companies to foreigners. And they killed 100,000 Americans by forcing them to drive tin cans. pic.twitter.com/iaVt8bH4IM — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) August 6, 2025 Republicans just ended federal car mileage rules …
S&P 500 already trading back at peak 2025 multiples, only difference is that earnings estimates for this year are significantly lower. pic.twitter.com/vALbxftwDK — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) June 10, 2025 It looks like nobody is hedged pic.twitter.com/cBLSBJ1GdI — James Choi (@JC_Investment) June 10, 2025 JPMorgan CEO Dimon: There's a chance that real numbers will deteriorate …
A 25-30% weaker USD (over the next 1-2 years) solves most of Trumps problems 1) Trade deficits will vanish 2) Foreign CBs like PBoC and CBI will end up acummulating USDs and Treasuries 3) Gold, Crypto and High-beta risk will do well 4) Foreign companies will likely move… — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) May 23, …
When Japan’s 40-year yield spikes…It’s not just a Japan problem.It’s a global leverage problem ticking louder. — FromRedToRiches (@FromRedToRiches) May 20, 2025 Japan’s 10 year yield the past month💀☠️: I mean this is so far below where their 40 year bond is trading which trades at 3.5% plus. Inflation is way higher than 1.52% My …
"Small traders are holding one of their most extreme net-long positions in gold futures in over a decade, historically a contrarian signal that has often preceded weaker 13-week forward returns." – @thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/KA4nxcqd3p — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) May 7, 2025 So let me understand this. People are getting inflation refund checks so we can create …
Euro plunges below $1.04, lowest level in 2yrs as bets on ECB rate cuts byu/betsharks0 inwallstreetbets #Eurozone #manufacturing 📉 #services 📉https://t.co/rn0txeYG04 pic.twitter.com/rK9WqoU3sM — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) November 22, 2024
Semiconductor stocks are leading benchmarks across Asia lower following a drop in US equites after Nvidia Corp. suffered a record-setting $279 billion rout. The US Justice Department sent subpoenas to Nvidia and other companies as it seeks evidence that the chipmaker violated antitrust laws. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-03/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?embedded-checkout=true Nvidia down 2% in premarket trading after plunge that wiped …
The PPI rose 0.1 percent in July vs. a 0.2 percent Bloomberg Econoday expectation. The way the PPI outperformed will please the Fed. Data from the BLS, chart by Mish. The PPI Report for July was a bit of pleasant news this morning. PPI Key Points The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought us up to date with our leading indicator for the Chinese economy. So let me hand you over to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Second, the real estate market has become more active recently. All regions and departments have adapted to the new situation of major changes …
Ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data, this is critical knowledge to have. The Household Survey, which produces the unemployment rate and has been appreciably weaker than the Establishment Survey, which generates nonfarm payrolls, because it’s PROCYLICAL, it’s picking up the cycle’s end. https://t.co/kE2FRuOw8p — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) April 4, 2024 ⚠️ Initial claims for state …
via Mike Shedlock Economists expected ISM manufacturing to improve to a nearly flat 49.5. Instead the index fell to 47.8 from 49.1. ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM® Please consider the February 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® emphasis mine. The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in February, as the Manufacturing …
Step back for perspective. Aside from Nvidia, this AI rally is far weaker than the one in 2021. And consumer sentiment is far weaker as well. pic.twitter.com/RqMQLu6w2z — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 28, 2023 Here we see we're tracking last year's August robo rally/robo crash very closely. Ahead of schedule. pic.twitter.com/V3qdPgiswW — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 28, …
via mishtalk: Nonrevolving credit posted its first negative reading since April of 2020. The net change is the lowest since November 2020. The Fed will be pleased with this report. Consumer credit data from the Fed, chart by Mish The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was for credit to rise by $20.0 billion. Instead, the rise was …