Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Trump tears into 'weak' official who resigned over Iran war as his allies pile on 'crazed egomaniac' who was about to be FIRED https://t.co/i139w8JKdZ — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 17, 2026 Donald Trump said he is glad that his top counterterrorism official resigned over the war with Iran. In an extraordinary and unprecedented move for …
New economic data released today delivered a troubling combination for the Federal Reserve and the broader U.S. economy. The second estimate of Q4 GDP came in at just 0.7 percent, far below the 1.4 percent economists expected and marking the second weakest growth reading in the past 3.5 years. At the same time, inflation pressures …
Market is pricing in a big TACO move from Trump who dramatically underestimated the consequences of war with Iran — Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) March 2, 2026 The silver lining for Iran in all this is that this war will very likely final explode the Moron (AI) Bubble. Which means Trump will TACO time sooner than …
via notayesmanseconomics Japan finds itself in a situation where it keeps making the economic news. Much of this is the result of the central planning it has employed over the years. I realise that for new readers this may be a bit of a shock, but the country that looks at times an example of …
Macro vulnerability increasing ahead of automation wave. The consumer most exposed to AI displacement already has no financial runway. Before a single layoff announcement, 401k hardship withdrawals are 365% above baseline. Emergency savings at a 15-year low. Credit card delinquency in the 40-59 cohort at 12.7%. The shock absorber… — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) February 22, …
A weak president with bad policies can literally kill tens of thousands of people with no accountability for the massive loss of life. https://t.co/lZoXGpWSA9 — Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) January 16, 2026 Interesting read. Good news on the overdose deaths. They’ve plummeted due to severe shortages of the Fentanyl supply: pic.twitter.com/qO8a9H9TKA — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January …
Strong consumers do not flee bulk stores for bargain bins. Small business employment shrank again in December according to Paychex. We will get a clearer picture once we get the ADP and payroll data later this week. pic.twitter.com/KmzIqUJ6fG — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) January 6, 2026 Riddle me this. If the US consumer is so strong …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought an update for my main economic theme for China. New home prices fell 0.4 per cent month on month on average across 70 cities, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. The decline eased slightly from a 0.5 per cent fall in October, but …
Note: “Weak consumer spending” refers to store expectations before the season started. Consumer spending ended up being high which is why Black Friday set a new record No paywall: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/seasonal-hiring-offers-little-reprieve-for-labor-market-woes-110044972.html Plenty of Americans are expected to pour into stores and fill online carts this holiday shopping season. Fewer may be able to pick up seasonal work …
https://twitter.com/leoknyc777/status/1980405157755253014
HYG and JNK have been weak for the last 2 weeks. There is stress in credit and financials have been weak. — Will O'Hara, CMT (@WillOHara131) October 11, 2025 Foreigners have not even started dumping UST. Japan has not even started raising rate to lower 12% inflation. You have seen nothing yet folks. This is …
The labor market may already be contracting, and when the official numbers arrive, the public could finally confront the fragility that has been quietly building. …and if you are lucky to land a new job, it will be at a compensation level well below your current or last job. We didn’t learn our lesson in …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The ISM report for August reads like mild stagflation. ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM® Please consider the August 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® by Susan Spence, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management®. “In August, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly …
https://twitter.com/rev_cap/status/1962197481111834696 Housing *does* need help, but totally agree if they cut FFR it’ll just make things worse Since cutting cycle of 100bps last sept, 30Y UP 100bps Eventually I also think they try another George W Bush type program (when the rate cuts don’t work)https://t.co/42buOXff4f — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) September 1, 2025 We’re now …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has revived a topic that had gone quiet for a while and so let me hand you over to Le Monde. François Bayrou has chosen not to endure political instability but to precipitate it in order to better extricate himself from it. On Monday, August 25, the Prime Minister announced that a …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The housing picture remains grim. NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), chart by Mish Housing cannot gain traction as mortgage rates are still too high and prices are out of sight. Please consider the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for August, 2025. Key Findings Current sales conditions fell one …
$NVO is still blaming their weakness on " knockoff GLP1s"😂 I like the company, but why isn't $LLY doing the same? Management has to take accountability at some point! pic.twitter.com/sLzJniQLyY — Patient Investor (@patientinvestor) July 29, 2025 The fall hit hard. Early in the morning Novo Nordisk shares dropped over 20% after slicing its full‑year …
President Trump told reporters on July 25 that he “likes a strong dollar” but “you make a hell of a lot more money with a weaker one.” The dollar index is down 10% since January. That’s the steepest six-month drop since 1973. The U.S. M2 money supply just hit $22.02 trillion. That’s a record. Inflation …
So how do we refinance the debt now? pic.twitter.com/XSeGui9ELI — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) May 13, 2025 The U.S. is on track to default on its debt within four years. We need to refinance $9T this year, plus $2-3T in new deficits, but domestic savings are only $5T. Foreign creditors like Japan, who we’re alienating with …
Let them eat cake 🍰 pic.twitter.com/oo61kcRt9x — The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 13, 2025 Seeing another push higher across yields today after CPI, with some noteworthy exceptions pic.twitter.com/bWQH9ht1Cx — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 13, 2025 Is the bond market the scorecard for Bessent anymore? That's the big macro question. Global long term bond markets …
Back in March, the consensus mkt narrative was that business spending (advertising and corporate travel) was weakening first, while consumers were holding firm. But on earnings, we’re actually seeing B2Bs (esp the B2B Mag 7s) outperform, while consumer names are struggling… — Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) May 1, 2025 Couples are cutting wedding budgets and delaying …
This sell-off is technical. Volume isn’t as heavy as it was during the prior weeks’ panic, suggesting this is more about a lack of conviction to buy rather than aggressive selling. What feels dull and uninteresting today could look appealing tomorrow — and once again, the retail… — optionGeek (@StockShark16) April 21, 2025 Today had …
via WSB Media and Investors celebrated a lower CPI reading and sent the stock market futures up by 1.5% before open. As of this writing S&P is up by 0.8%. There is a strong argument that the slower month-on-month CPI increase is due to weak consumer demand. Look at the breakdown of the categories. Airline …
by Michael It takes strength to be free. That is why they want us to be weak. When we are weak, we are much more likely to become dependent upon the system to survive, and that makes us much easier to control. So they give us junk to eat, they put poisons into our air …
Germany factory orders fell 5.4% in November from October, WAY above the 0.2% drop expected. A significant decrease in large-scale orders drove the weakness. German manufacturing has been in a recession for over 2.5 YEARS. ⚠️ANOTHER WEAK ECONOMIC DATA FROM GERMANY⚠️ Germany factory orders fell 5.4% in November from October, WAY above the 0.2% drop …
If you are wondering, AOC is, by far, the top bluesky account, so that gives you an idea of what kind of mindless content users seek over there. She’s also the only bluesky account with a million followers. On X, she has about 13 million followers. If bluesky pays influencers to promote the platform, AOC …
⚠️BRACE FOR MORE US JOB MARKET DATA REVISIONS⚠️ Nonfarm payrolls will likely be revised DOWNWARD by another ~300,000 jobs for 2Q 2024. This is according to the QCEW data released by the BLS. If this trend continues, it will turn out that August and October saw JOB LOSSES. pic.twitter.com/rA3cgv6En6 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December …
Nearly half of Americans (47%) say that the United States’ influence in the world has been getting weaker in recent years. Why is it happening? https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/06/23/prevailing-view-among-americans-is-that-u-s-influence-in-the-world-is-weakening-and-chinas-is-growing/ h/t Reasonable_Mess_3327
More trouble for China's yuan ahead. Already high drama w/onshore rate (CNY) right at the 2% daily limit day after day. Offshore continues to be substantially weaker. Given what the Chinese reported from their economic situation, can't blame CNY or CNH. Economy is not responding. pic.twitter.com/nTzeSxVe9r — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) April 17, 2024
