Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The prospect of a return to Volcker-era economics is no longer a fringe theory. As the 10 year Treasury yield continues its march upward, a growing chorus of macro analysts is warning that the current inflationary spiral is not a temporary spike but a systemic repricing. The argument for interest rates hitting 14% hinges on …
Why is the Gov shutting down? If there’s no funding bill and no CR, the government shuts down because no funding has been approved. Every agency has its own plan for shutdowns. Many agencies will have to stop or reduce the essential services they provide and furlough employees until the end of the shutdown.The Labor …
Some people believe that the tariff disruptions will settle down as more negotiations happen and greater thought is given to how to structure them to work in a sensible way. However, I am now hearing from a large and growing number of people who are having to deal with these issues that it is already …
by mrmrmrj As you can see from the chart, a rise in bond yields typically ends with a financial accident. The most recent example is the 2018 global selloff that was sparked by the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates and scaling back its quantitative easing program. This led to a sharp increase in bond …
The crucial choice lies in deciding whether it occurs in the economy or manifests as inflation in the currency. For those with knowledge of market history, these headlines are a strong indicator.. pic.twitter.com/m2ZuHoptah — The Trout Lord (@thekitchentwit) November 15, 2023