Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Prices hit lowest point in at least two decades. Price-to-income ratio stuck at very high 21. In Shanghai second-hand homes around 8,000 USD per square meter. Big cities like Beijing saw prices drop sharply from 2018 peaks. 70-80% of Chinese household wealth tied to property. Estimated $18 trillion in wealth destroyed. High homeownership rate over …
Something big has changed in the financial system. A market most people barely paid attention to has exploded. Private credit grew from roughly $500 billion in 2020 to around $2 trillion today. Some estimates are even higher depending on what counts. The industry expects it could reach around $4 trillion by 2030. The appeal was …
by Michael A very intense El Niño has formed in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean much earlier than originally anticipated, and we are being warned that it could cause trillions of dollars of damage to the global economy. Considering everything else that is going on in our world right now, that is really …
Midas @midascabal Here is why the AI bubble will implode. China is using a totally different approach to AI: – open source, mass scale, cheap The West approach to AI? – close source, private, profit driven China will mass produce AI and export it everywhere, like their products. This will be a race to the …
President Trump has reshaped the country’s economic policies, but the outlook for the budget remains dire. In the first year of his second term, President Trump has tried to radically reshape America’s economy. He has slashed taxes, raised tariffs to their highest levels in almost a century, unilaterally canceled federal spending, pushed down immigration and …
Where are these trillions coming from? And why? I’m unconvinced the fundamentals support this — Financial Physics (@FinancialPhys) January 1, 2026
Everything’s lining up for a Q1 shock. THE YEN PARADOX 82,640 contracts betting against the yen. Second highest since July 2024. The Bank of Japan just confessed this morning they have barely begun. After hiking to a 30 YEAR HIGH at 0.75 percent, the yen did not strengthen. It collapsed to 157.77. Finance Minister Katayama …
by Michael The slow-motion disaster that we are witnessing on the west coast is unlike anything we have ever seen before. A series of atmospheric rivers has already dumped trillions of gallons of water on the region, and trillions of gallons of additional water will fall before the end of the year. This has caused …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1998841788585365948 Fed Chair Powell: Total PCE rises rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices also rose 2.8%. These readings are higher than earlier in the year, as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects… pic.twitter.com/q8MPm5lCA6 — FactPost (@factpostnews) December 10, 2025 …
“This is 2007, 2008 magnified multiple times over,” warns Mitch Vexler, a commercial real estate developer who has gone forensic on America’s crumbling financial foundations. In today’s interview, Vexler dismantles the narrative of stability. He details a $23 trillion property overvaluation scheme, a $2 trillion commercial real estate cliff, and trillions in impaired bank loans—all …
Arvind Krishna, CEO of IBM, has argued that the recent surge in spending by Big Tech on AI-data centers is economically unrealistic. On the “Decoder” podcast he estimated that building and fully outfitting a one-gigawatt AI data center costs about $80 billion. Given that industry announcements suggest firms are planning up to 100 gigawatts of …
The Fed’s expansion of the money supply inflates asset prices and stock portfolios, while eroding the purchasing power and standard of living of the bottom 90%. The top 10% of wealthy Americans now control 60% of the nation’s wealth America’s looming hunger crisis divides nation: 40 million to lose SNAP food aid amid government shutdown …
Paris is burning with anger and debt. Macron’s government is collapsing under its own numbers, and the streets are alive with people who have stopped listening to excuses. The country owes €3.3 trillion. Interest alone takes 7 percent of the budget and grows every day. Every attempt to cut €44 billion failed. Lawmakers crushed the …
The housing market didn’t collapse. It was looted. The 2008 crash wasn’t a failure. It was a transfer. The Fed absorbed $2.7 trillion in toxic mortgage-backed securities from its bankster accomplices, dumped the fallout onto taxpayers, and called it stability. “The Fed still holds about $2.7 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, down only slightly from its …
Technology is moving faster than the buildings meant to contain it. Data centers take two to three years to construct, but demand can flip in half that time. JLL warns that without a precise read on future workloads and target customers, new facilities risk opening already obsolete https://www.jll.com/en-us/insights/why-data-centers-could-hit-obsolescence-sooner-than-you-think. Power densities are exploding. Rack loads are …
$61.9 billion. That’s how much companies are spending on generative AI in 2025. IDC says investment jumped 94% this year. https://www.business-standard.com/technology/tech-news/genai-paradox-companies-pouring-billions-into-ai-it-has-yet-to-pay-off-125081302003_1.html The payoff? Still nowhere to be seen. McKinsey finds nearly 80% of firms use generative AI—but the same number say it hasn’t boosted the bottom line. https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2025/08/14/companies-are-pouring-billions-into-ai-it-has-yet-to-pay-off Pilot projects are collapsing fast. S&P Global …
“Trillions of dollars is coming in from tariffs.” – Trump https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-says-his-tariffs-collected-trillions-in-revenue-so-far-here-s-the-real-figure/ar-AA1KoVft Yeah. The largest tax hike in American history. Tariff imports are a tax on Americans. Now they’re thinking about taxing exports too. Insane. 🔴 US Treasury Secretary Bessent floats rolling out export tax to more industries – FT. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) August 13, 2025 …
In the quiet hum of everyday life, a storm brews unnoticed. The United States stands at the precipice of a financial upheaval, with trillions in corporate and consumer loans maturing by 2026. These debts, once manageable under low-interest rates, now face refinancing at significantly higher costs. We are less than 6 months away from the …
It’s the part no one wants to say out loud. Not on TV, not in campaign speeches, not in the flashy Fed statements. But it’s right there in the numbers, year after year. The more Washington spends, the weaker the economy becomes. The logic is brutal in its simplicity. When the federal government floods the …
DEFICIT: For the first time the CBO is admitting Trump’s tariffs (or threat of tariffs) could cut the deficit by trillions. h/t @WallStreetMav pic.twitter.com/zWbOMhWf2G — @amuse (@amuse) December 20, 2024 The CBO estimates that a uniform increase in tariffs of 10% on all imports would decrease the federal deficit by $2.2 trillion over the next …
by confoundedinterest17 There have been to significant jumps in the Federal Debt. The first coming after the financial crisis of 2008 and election of Obama/Biden in 2008. The second with the outbreak of Covid in 2020 and the election of Biden/Harris in 2021. The Federal (public) debt was just over $10 million when Obama/Biden were …
Textbook recession: 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP Textbook depression: 12 consecutive quarters (3yrs) of negative real GDP 🇺🇸 currently in 9th consecutive quarter of negative real GDP ⚠️ — CJK (@CJKonstantinos) August 29, 2024 31% of parents say they are unable to afford back-to-school shopping for their kids this year, per Credit Karma. …
That's a $1.4 trillion+ swing in Nvidia's market cap in just over a month. That's also more than the value of most countries' entire stock market. Volatility is officially back and on the rise. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 31, 2024 BREAKING: Intel stock, …
LIUZHOU, China—Officials were bullish about the future of their factory town in early 2019. The economy was prospering, a new industrial district was on the way and an elevated light-rail system was taking shape. “The achievements of the past year have not come easily,” Mayor Wu Wei said in a city report at the time. …
In a remarkable turn of events, recent polls indicate a significant shift in public sentiment against NPR, with voters now rallying behind the elimination of taxpayer funding by a substantial 18-point margin. This surge of support underscores a growing consensus among taxpayers who seek fiscal responsibility and accountability in government spending. Looking ahead, conservatives are …
TL:DR: Big banks are hiding risky investments off their books, just like they did before the 2008 crash. This could cause another financial crisis. Banks like JPMorgan Chase have trillions of dollars in risky investments they don’t report on their main financial statements. Regulators are worried and want the banks to set aside more money …
🤔 pic.twitter.com/yMjKswts0g — Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) April 23, 2024 Vote for him 👇 we must primary loser Don Liz Cheney Bacon out of office. https://t.co/0qqulWjZ7v — Catturd ™ (@catturd2) April 23, 2024
CERN’s Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is set to commence a crucial experiment on April 8, aiming to uncover dark matter following a two-year enhancement! This facility will propel trillions of protons close to the speed of light, orbiting its 17-mile circumference more than 11,000 times per second. The objective is to reveal dark matter, constituting …
