Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
This covers everything. Mortgages auto student and corporate debt all ready to blow. 2008 was small compared to what builds now. System too leveraged and one shock ends it. Private credit defaults and commercial real estate stress reports keep growing.
Crowds smashing buses, blocking roads, reports of gunfire Cops outnumbered and losing control fast The Knicks won a championship and NYC immediately turned into GTA pic.twitter.com/uq53TzLds1 — Clown World ™ 🤡 (@ClownWorld) June 14, 2026 🚨 BREAKING: SHOOTING REPORTED IN TIMES SQUARE AMID KNICKS RIOTS Rioters are BLOCKING emergency vehicles from responding THE NATIONAL GUARD …
With talks between the US and Iran falling apart, there will be renewed focus this week on the Strait of Hormuz, getting it open and restoring traffic. Nearly all the focus so far as been on the energy part of the trade equation, the amount crude oil being able to transit the bottleneck. But there …
Multiple reputable outlets confirm that Democrats won: Florida House District 87 (Palm Beach/Mar‑a‑Lago area) by just under 800 votes. Florida Senate District 14 by 408 votes. The immediate story is a narrow victory. Democrat Emily Gregory will represent Florida’s State House District 87, a Palm Beach area that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, after …
kristen shaughnessy @kshaughnessy2 “Bank of America has a stark warning for stock investors” “The stock market may be just one bad day away from forcing Washington and Wall Street to act. That is the message Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett sent to clients on Friday….. The four market thresholds to watch •S&P …
JUST IN: Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s, WSJ reports. — BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) March 9, 2026 Factcheck: Yes, per WSJ and shipping trackers like MarineTraffic/Reuters: tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has virtually halted amid the Iran conflict (down ~90% since early March), …
via Phoenix Capital Research The spread between tech stocks and the rest of the market has reached historic levels. For weeks now, the MAG-7/ Big Tech have been correcting while the broader market index (the S&P 500) has rallied due to defensive sectors (Industrials, Consumer Staples, Energy) igniting. In this context, the #1 question concerning …
The Texas & Florida housing markets are on the cusp of massive financial crisis that last time saw home prices crash by 40% and flipped a booming economy right into a recession!
The Fed is legally required to ignore presidential pressure on rates. BREAKING: Federal prosecutors have opened an inquiry into Fed Chair Powell on renovations of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters in Washington. Jerome Powell just released his response below: "The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting… pic.twitter.com/HaKAPPW2tn — amit (@amitisinvesting) …
THE RECKONING Wall Street’s oldest warning system just triggered. The Shiller PE ratio crossed 40.16 this week. In 154 years of recorded market history, this threshold has been breached only three times. The first was December 1999. The second was November 2021. The third is now. What followed the first: a 49% collapse. What followed …
They’re LYING to you, rate cuts are actually BAD… Well, in the short term they are. The biggest crashes in history didn’t happen before the Fed pivot. They happened after it. 1970s? Fed cuts → stocks nuked. 2000 dot-com? Fed cuts → -51%. 2008? Fed cuts → -58%. Even the early 2020s saw the same …
“Nearly 12 million federal student loan borrowers are behind on payments, according to new Education Department data. 5.5 million are in default, mostly from before the pandemic. Another 6 million are delinquent, with most over 270 days past due and headed toward default. An additional 6.7 million are in forbearance from Biden’s SAVE plan litigation. …
Ghost cities, railroads, airports that nobody uses or asked for and all the other super expensive make work projects are coming home to roost. I don't see how they get out of this without hyperinflating the currency. — Original Settler (@MAPatriot1630) November 28, 2025 China’s property crisis is resurfacing with new force as China Vanke — long …
The explosion of the “greatest carry trade in financial history,” explaining how for 30 years, Japan’s zero-interest policy artificially suppressed borrowing costs worldwide, fueling everything from cheap mortgages to sky-high stock multiples. For risk assets, the sudden reversal of the decades-old yen carry trade is the actual nightmare. For years, global funds borrowed almost gratis …
“THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM JUST BROKE IN TOKYO Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit 3.41% today. That number means nothing to you. Here’s why it should terrify you. Japan owes 230% of everything it produces. It’s the most indebted nation in human history. For 35 years, they kept the lights on by borrowing at near-zero rates. …
The Fed just triggered a liquidity crisis. And I can prove it with three charts. But this isn’t just about repo markets or bank reserves. This is the moment the Fed loses control – and they know it. By the end of this video, you’ll understand exactly why money printing just became inevitable, why stopping …
via WSB: Explanation: “The Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical signals that together forecast the likelihood of a stock market crash. The technical inputs are the 10 Week Simple Moving Average, New 52 week highs on the NYSE, New 52 Week lows on the NYSE, and the McClellan Oscillator. If, on the same day, …
Charlie Kirk’s murder forced every part of the system to move. Trump’s guards tore up his schedule. They built tighter walls around him. They dropped counterterror teams into Yankee Stadium. They scanned every fan and sealed every door. They acted like another shot was already coming. Congress snapped into survival mode. Members canceled events. They …
Boom turns bust as reckless call buying backfires. "Instead of using #options as part of a larger strategy to protect #portfolios from losses, individuals are mostly #speculating…with reckless buying organized on social media acted like a force-multiplier. Because options #market makers need to hedge call contracts, they buy… pic.twitter.com/7JKs4zB9sg — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) July 18, …
2/ Japan’s 30-year bond yield just hit 3.14%, an all-time high. The 40-year? A record 3.6%. Why? A failed bond auction—no one wanted the debt. That’s dangerous. https://t.co/uHGaZh41mF — Neil McCoy-Ward (@NeilMcCoyWard) May 28, 2025 4/ Meanwhile, U.S. 30-year yields breached 5% last week. That pushes up mortgage rates, car loans, and credit costs. And …
Retail traders bought $4.1 billion of U.S. Stocks during the first 3 hours of today's trading sessions, the most in history 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/IooUGeT3xI — Barchart (@Barchart) May 20, 2025 Retail traders made history on Monday, pouring a record $4.1 billion into US stocks by midday, reversing a 1 percent decline in the S&P 500 Index. …
It's very likely that the S&P 500 has just reached a short-term TOP. The Put/Call ratio is very contracted, and yesterday's market breadth was very poor. pic.twitter.com/B9ednkA6JU — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) May 15, 2025 ALERT: Bitcoin has just triggered the EXACT signal that preceded the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear markets Is history about to …
via BossBlunts1: WHY THE CFTC NO-ACTION LETTER MATTERS It allows UBS to absorb toxic Credit Suisse swaps quietly — no clearing or margin requirements kick in. It shields these legacy exposures from public scrutiny. It suggests the risk is so large or complex, that the CFTC believes enforcing margin and clearing rules now could cause …
Border Czar Tom Homan delivers a message to Boston's "sanctuary" Mayor Michelle Wu for saying her city is safe: "I know nine children that would disagree with her. Nine sets of parents whose children were sexually assaulted, raped, by people who are not supposed to be here." pic.twitter.com/C8bmSKe0Zp — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) March 4, …
JPMorgan’s Sandeep Deshpande warns of AI overhype, suggesting DeepSeek’s efficiency might reduce demand for costly GPU clusters. Jefferies’ Edison Lee echoes a potential capex slowdown for 2026. Meanwhile, Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon calls the panic overdone, maintaining strong ratings on Nvidia and Broadcom. Citi’s Atif Malik emphasizes U.S. chip access as a lasting edge, despite challenges …
‼️SELL SIGNAL FOR STOCKS TRIGGERED‼️ Cash levels* in global investors portfolios fell to 3.9%, triggering a “sell signal”, according to BofA. This is one of the lowest readings in history. It suggests lower returns ahead. *Survey of 171 fund managers with $450 billion assets. pic.twitter.com/4QUA3XbZrG — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December 19, 2024 Bulls are …
