Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
All eyes on the BIG three, Rates – Copper – Oil all lower this am. Correlation on the rise. The economic stress value is picking up stream. (2) pic.twitter.com/1DCffqTwxj — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) April 30, 2025
by Michael Consumer sentiment is plummeting, delinquency rates are rising, and nearly three-quarters of all U.S. consumers admit that they are “financially stressed”. If U.S. consumers are experiencing this much pain now, what will things look like six months from today if there are empty shelves and widespread shortages? We witnessed a brief period of severe financial …
by MonetaryCommentary When credit spreads surge and GDP contracts, the common interpretation is causality, though what’s more revealing is how the credit market prices risk before the economy acknowledges it. In pre-GFC regimes, the widening of corporate bond spreads was tightly coupled with funding cost pressures and a hard pullback in credit availability. But, post-2008, …
“What’s being proposed: The U.S. Treasury is floating the idea of buying back older debt securities. This is essentially a form of yield curve intervention a tool to inject liquidity, support market function, or steer duration risk away from the private sector. This is not QE in the traditional sense, as the Fed isn’t involved …
BREAKING: US financial conditions are now their tightest since the 2020 pandemic, per ZeroHedge. Financial conditions are even tighter than during one of the most rapid Fed hike cycles of all time, in 2022. Conditions have tightened rapidly as stocks have pulled back, while… pic.twitter.com/d53KqrwU4D — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 14, 2025 Is this …
Last night, financial carnage ripped through Asia. Margin calls. Liquidations. Panic. But this isn't just about Shanghai, Hong Kong, or Tokyo. Behind the headlines is something far bigger — signs of global monetary deflation, dollar stress, and a carry trade unraveling through… — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) April 8, 2025 Just talked with a source …
🚨BREAKING: Short-Term Yield 📈: Financial Stress? A sharp 📈 in 3& 6-month yields signal financial strains, similar to the 2019 repo crisis causes: •Liquidity Strains: Banks/hedge funds may face overnight funding pressures •Hedge Fund Stress: Losses or margin calls driving pic.twitter.com/HvkMtQ7zzE — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) April 1, 2025 Why are the 3 and 6 …
Supply chain stress is higher right now than it was in the peak in the 2021-2022 reopening bottlenecks. Inflation is not contained. pic.twitter.com/QPFdLwlCMP — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) January 11, 2025 ShadowStats says real inflation is over 10%. Official CPI? Just 2.7%. The truth is in your grocery bill, not the government report. — GoldSilver HQ …
1. The thought is the Fed could make homes more affordable by cutting interest rates So far, mortgage rates are doing opposite, and rising instead Why? Because mortgage rates move with the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has surged this week pic.twitter.com/zk0c3UJi9Y — Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ (@burrytracker) December 20, 2024 3. A …
meanwhile stock market 😂 pic.twitter.com/42t88hpxDv — Punet (@pm_2781) December 10, 2024 Historically, extreme retail investor bullishness has often been associated with market tops or speculative bubbles. For example: Dot-com Bubble (Late 1990s): During the late 1990s, retail investors poured into tech stocks, driving valuations to unsustainable levels. The Nasdaq peaked in March 2000 before a …
Lawyers are predicting P Diddy won’t be able to handle the stress of being in jail. He will flip and agree to testify against everyone. All sorts of celebrities are going to be involved. 🔊 pic.twitter.com/ahMAXUAyop — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) September 22, 2024
NEW YORK — In a year marked by financial worries and political tension, a new survey has uncovered the staggering impact of stress on everyday Americans. The average person feels their head “spinning” from stress a whopping 156 times per year, translating to about three times a week. This alarming statistic is just one of …
Country Garden Holdings Co.’s sales slump dragged on in August, exacerbating the Chinese developer’s liquidity woes as it battles a wind-up petition. Contracted sales for August declined 57% from a year earlier to 3.43 billion yuan ($483 million), following a 72% drop in July, according to an exchange filing on Thursday. The poor sales underscore …
Borrowing in JPY, exchanging for USD (unhedged), buying US equities now they need to buy a rising JPY to cover their new obligations, and to get it they need to sell those equities. h/t _amc_
In the predawn darkness, the Houba labour market in Guiyang is a sea of construction helmets as day workers seek temporary jobs in the south-western Chinese city. But many of these so-called migrant workers, labourers who have left their homes in mostly rural areas to find jobs in the city, will leave disappointed. China’s property …
Citigroup 2024 Recap⚠️ -Subject to FINRA disqualification for aiding and abetting -Failed Stress Test after Fed identified "weakness" in Resolution (Bankruptcy) Plan-Fined for bad books/inability to manage "ongoing risk" Did I mention they have $30 Trillion in Swaps? pic.twitter.com/ej4JQmhQ3X — M.B. (@741trey) July 11, 2024 Stress Test Results (2024): Citigroup completed the Federal Reserve Board’s …
🚨BREAKING: Banking Stress Escalates – FED discount-window loans hit $6.46B for the week ended June 12th, up from $6.19B. – Significant increase signals rising stress in the banking sector. – Experts warn of increased reliance on emergency funding especially in regional banks pic.twitter.com/WmxBngnXM8 — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) June 13, 2024 We did 🫣notice the …
(Bloomberg) — South Korea is emerging as a closely watched weak link in the $63 trillion world of shadow banking. Real estate exposure has been showing cracks at home and abroad after interest rates rose, prompting financial firms including T. Rowe Price Group Inc. and Nomura Holdings Inc. to express concern about stress in shadow …
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s report reveals alarming trends, with almost 3.5% of card balances overdue by at least 30 days, the highest on record. This surge in delinquencies, coupled with rising minimum payments and increased credit card balances, underscores the growing financial strain on US households. BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US credit card delinquency rates …
via Mike Shedlock: To entice buyers, home builders are building cheaper and cheaper houses. What are you getting for your money? New Home Sales Prices from the Commerce Department, chart by Mish. New Home Sales Key Points The average sales price peaked at $568,700 in December of 2022. The median sales price peaked at $498,800 …
KEY POINTS “Doom spending” occurs when you spend to cope with stress from such things as the economy and your finances. 27% of survey respondents admitted to doom spending, and 32% have taken on more debt in the last six months. Doom spending may be even more common among millennials (43% reported doing it) and Gen …
As the United States strives to regain a sense of normalcy after the pandemic, a growing financial concern is looming over the nation. According to Bloomberg, the cost of living has surged in various aspects, with groceries marking a 25% increase, used cars seeing a staggering 35% climb, and rents escalating by approximately 20%. While …
🚨 Breaking: Federal 🖨️💵 💵 The Fed is injecting liquidity into the market through various facilities , raising concerns 📈 BTFP reaches a new record high, signaling heightened worries for banks 🔄 Repo 🖨️💵 on the rise, indicating stress in the financial plumbing. pic.twitter.com/ilmuMZSOpx — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) December 15, 2023
by confoundedinterest17 The song “Running on Empty” by Jackson Browne comes to mind when analyzing the state of American banking, especially regional banks. Yesterday we found out that inflows to money-market funds continue to be huge ($290BN in six weeks), and more importantly, regional banks’ usage of The Fed’s BTFP bailout facility surged to a new record high (even …
The surge in online searches for “give car back” reaching an all-time high, and the concurrent trend of “can’t pay credit card,” signals financial distress among individuals. For everyone DMing me: No, you can’t “give back” a car 🙃 That’s a repossession. — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) October 30, 2023 Personal savings rate trends are …
For the last three days Estes Express is being hit hard with the attack. No phones, No Website, No Internal Systems, No nothing. They claim they are still making pick ups and delivery, but that’s not what I’m personally experiencing. Three days in to this, and they don’t know what the cause is and they …
Makes sense, with the acceleration in credit card defaults hitting levels higher than even the 2008 Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/AA0i4w9S97 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 12, 2023 BREAKING: Delinquency rates among credit cards issued by smaller banks are the highest on record, per Apollo Group. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 12, 2023 The crashing office market will …
CREDIT 💳 CARDDELINQUENCY pic.twitter.com/RdciYYICEt — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 28, 2023 And WSJ reported millions of home owners are bailing on insurance! The broke US homeowner: *struggling with HOA fees*struggling with higher property taxes*struggling with higher insurance Unless you’re 60+ and own multiple paid off homes, odds are high this is YOU — Amy …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/large-bank-capital-requirements-20230727.pdf Wut mean?: Following its stress test earlier this year, the Federal Reserve Board today announced the individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1. Large bank capital requirements are in part determined by the Board’s stress test results, which provide a risk-sensitive and forward-looking assessment of capital needs. The …