Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
via WSB trader: I’m pretty new to investing but had came at the right time in beg. of 2023 back when Nvidia was surging and I just so happened to YOLO and ride the AI wave. I saw my profits go upward to $15k+ at one point. However as of the past week I just …
Incredibly, ultra long-duration Treasury bonds have now lost more in % terms than stocks did during Great Financial Crisis. The drawdown in extended duration Treasury ETF (🔻58.3%) now exceeds PEAK-TO-TROUGH losses in S&P 500 during stock market crash of 2007 – 2009 (🔻56.0%) pic.twitter.com/nlXZH5xOUY — Jack Farley (@JackFarley96) October 2, 2023 Ok, think of it …
via reuters: LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) – Hedge funds using computers to trade equities are expecting to start selling to the tune of $20 billion to $30 billion in the next two weeks given retreating stock markets, a UBS (UBSG.S) note seen by Reuters shows. Hedge funds using algorithms to follow market trends have turned …
Zerohedge sees a bounce any time:https://t.co/o2rER2lXOH What they don't realize is that today the stock / bond ratio reached a new all time extreme. Never a worse time to own stocks. pic.twitter.com/cajdfONS0y — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) September 25, 2023 The only consistently reliable BOTTOM indicator for the past several years has been the put/call ratio. There …
CONFIDENCE: you didn't hear this from Old Wall Media during Friday's stock market decline But it still happened. US Consumer Confidence falling (again) as Gas Prices go up and stocks keep making lower-highs pic.twitter.com/kxw49wOK6A — Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) September 16, 2023 After Tech stocks crashed in August, the Nasdaq VIX made a new low this …
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US Congressman introduces plan to ban Congress & their spouses from trading stocks. pic.twitter.com/RR686WZpDu — Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) September 15, 2023
By Graham Summers, MBA Nearly every market collapse follows a particular pattern. That pattern? 1) Stocks break down below a critical level of support. 2) Stocks rally to “kiss” this former support, failing to reclaim it. 3) Stocks roll over and the real collapse begins. This pattern is now playing out with the S&P 500. …
By Graham Summers, MBA Last week, I noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other government agencies have been engaging in a strange scheme. That scheme? Releasing economic data that initially suggests the economy is booming, only for that same data to be revised downward multiple times in subsequent months. Some people think …
There won’t be a bull run, the money supply growth rate is negative right now https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL Where did that liquidity go to? Yes equities, real estate, bonds and consumer goods all around the world. What happens if the liquidity that got borrowed and is collaterized by bonds, real estate and equities gets less? Yes prices …
STOCKS VERY EXPENSIVE pic.twitter.com/rmoOk9V5Dy — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 28, 2023 Retail is about to go all in 🎲 https://t.co/tgq5NxIRhj pic.twitter.com/IFX6t5KBbk — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 28, 2023 CREDIT 💳 CARDDELINQUENCY pic.twitter.com/RdciYYICEt — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 28, 2023
We're looking for a hard reversal on the daily for Tech this week. And then pull the plug on this final festival of idiots. Let history sort them out. pic.twitter.com/gIM5I7b2qh — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 23, 2023 Another blowout for Nvidia. Last qtr, their gain was viewed as good for all Tech stocks. This quarter, their …
As technology companies look forward to big opportunities in artificial intelligence, this latest earnings season seemed to reveal some cracks in their present-day armor. Technology stocks have pulled back in August after the sector racked up seven months in a row of gains to start the year. Recent weakness comes amid renewed skittishness about interest …
Short sellers have lost more than $175 billion betting against US stocks after investor mania for AI fueled an unexpected tech rally. The surge in tech stocks led to $175.2 billion in mark-to-market losses for short sellers year-to-date, with $53.5 billion of it stemming for July alone. According to data from S3 Partners, only 30% of …
by Chris Black Apple will be a $10 trillion company, Nvidia will easily hit $4 trillion, Amazon at $5 trillion. Valuations and the underlying business conditions do not matter. All that matters is the return. Algos don’t understand that stock A=X is insane. They are programmed to generate returns. As long as cash exists, printed …
Full 20 min interview : (26) Bill Gross on Bond Yields, Regional Banks, Opportunities – YouTube h/t DesmondMilesDant
by betsharks0 Think the great downward spiral of China has started. It is going to be very difficult for them to get out of it. They were so stupid to piss off so many of their neighbors and biting the hand that fed them. We are not even really very far into the demographics nightmare …
by bitkogan The connection is straightforward: a dip in inflation is largely tied to plummeting energy and food prices. In July 2023, the average WTI oil price dropped 23.49% as compared with July 2022. Meanwhile, natural gas prices plummeted by 63.31%, and corn by 17.27%. Observing these figures, particularly for natural gas, makes one question …
The only question on the table is can "stocks" rally without the Tech sector. The answer is they didn't last time. Here we see the Dow peaked about a month after Tech stocks in 2021. And next week is a month this time around. pic.twitter.com/27lgnRIIn2 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 11, 2023 The meme stock rally …
Energy stocks are only 5% away from recent highs. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe oil won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 48% return from its current levels. As a crucial contributor to inflation, rising energy costs could have a… pic.twitter.com/fBZ60dhWlO — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 11, …
These massive intra-day reversals we've been seeing lately are a result of institutions dumping Tech stocks en masse. A process known as "distribution" i.e. selling to retail late money. Here we see (Chaikin) money flow has collapsed. Note the difference from the last top: pic.twitter.com/IrPaM0TglA — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 10, 2023 This chart sums it …
‘There’s a new coronavirus variant topping the leaderboard in the United States: EG.5. Nationally, EG.5 is causing about 17% of new Covid-19 cases in the country, compared with 16% for the next most common lineage, XBB.1.16, according to the latest estimates from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.’ https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/09/health/covid-variant-eg5/index.html WHO classifies EG.5 as …
by Ancient_Chaco Deirdre O’Brien, Senior Vice President of Apple, sold 15,419 shares of the company. He has sold a total of 243,393 shares. So far, 16 insider sells and no insider buys Apple over the past year. This could be an indication of the insiders’ perception of the company’s future performance. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/senior-vice-president-deirdre-obrien-170123076.html?.tsrc=rss
Source: @EconguyRosie — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 9, 2023 2/ The U.S. equity market shifts in weight over time Stocks excelling in performance inevitably grow to make a larger portion of the market, leading to increased market concentration — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 9, 2023
Moody’s waits for a four month short covering rally to end and then downgrades bank stocks.https://t.co/8o2SYHn0u5 Third wave down confirmed. pic.twitter.com/U24Azjooza — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 8, 2023 .. worst day since May 4th $KRE @CNBC pic.twitter.com/m6hKEXyKoo — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 8, 2023
JUST IN 🚨 FITCH DOWNGRADES UNITED STATES RATINGS TO AA+ FROM AAA — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) August 1, 2023 https://twitter.com/_/status/1686487253344743425 The USA just had its credit rating dropped from AAA to AA+ 🩸 See charts for how markets reacted when this happened in 2011! I issued a warning about this to Insiders Access back in …
https://t.co/QHtQNfJgsd — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 1, 2023
History shows that investors should be wary when the fear of stocks reaches a low. Yes, complacency can persist for a while, yet there are other times when market turns arrive quickly, indeed, very quickly. Here’s an example.
