Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
FOMC official: Interest rates maintained at 3.5% to 3.75% for third straight time… Powell’s chairmanship expires next month; markets obsess over his “staying power”… Fed Statement: “Inflation remains elevated,” fueled by recent global energy shocks… The Warsh Shadow: Investors look past today’s pause to the May 15 leadership swap…
People keep trying to drag this into crash talk while the tape is telling a different story. Breadth is firming and buyers keep showing up on every dip, so a short rally makes more sense than another doom cycle right now. MOVE Index Credit Markets not buying into the Wall St narrative the AI is …
“Payroll employment growth slowed sharply to only 35,000 jobs per month over the three months ending in July. This is well below the moderate pace seen earlier in the year, likely due to a significant softening in labor demand.” https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/08/09/federal-reserve-rate-bowman/1681754774717/ The Fed’s dual mandate is breaking down. Inflation’s near target. Jobs are slipping. Tariffs are …
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now 30% of their total assets, the most in history 🚨 Probably Fine? pic.twitter.com/ILr70bCct7 — Barchart (@Barchart) August 3, 2025 Berkshire Hathaway’s cash is now 30% of its total assets, the highest in its history. The company holds $344 billion in cash because it sees few good places to invest. …
BREAKING: April PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, FALLS to 2.1%, below expectations of 2.2%. Core PCE inflation FALLS to 2.5%, in-line with expectations of 2.5%. PCE inflation is now at its lowest level since September 2024. All eyes are on the Fed. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 30, 2025 🇺🇸 Morning Economic …
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its key interest rate unchanged and signaled that just one cut is expected before the end of the year. The Federal Open Market Committee also indicated that it believes the long-run interest rate is higher than previously indicated. “In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the …
In a delicate balancing act, the Federal Reserve chose to keep its benchmark interest rate steady, resisting the pressure to cut rates as the economy faces cooling growth alongside persistent inflationary pressures. As households and businesses await the central bank’s decision, the stakes are high, with implications for borrowing costs, economic activity, and the trajectory …
When everyone is telling you that you are so smart for buying #bitcoin at $73,000 and insulting you for doing the opposite. You might be entering into a good contrarian trade. That said, as I told Mike Maloney in an interview decade ago, $BTC can turn into a massive pump job. — Peter Spina ⚒ …
The car market in a nut-shell: 1) Interest rates at 20-year highs. 2) Consumer savings depleted. 3) Vehicle prices slowly normalizing (with some exceptions). And yet… sales volumes are fine. The real looming issue in the industry right now? Undoubtedly margin compression.… — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) November 21, 2023
Bankruptcies steady drumbeat- JP Morgan$HYG $JNK $BKLN pic.twitter.com/izoky5PRZl — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 11, 2023 Credit is the next shoe to drop says Guggenheim CIO$HYG $JNK $BKLN pic.twitter.com/4x2DbwJiec — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 11, 2023 The Credit Market Is ‘Next Shoe to Drop’ The chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners, managing over $225 …
Darth Powell knows: This is the result of economic and social terrorism caused by the elite/donor class and Federal Reserve. Rewarding the most worthless, least productive members of society (asset price speculators) over actual production/innovation. https://t.co/UhRkGnrXJL — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) July 25, 2023 How long can the Fed & its PE accomplices delay the inevitable? …