Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Beijing cracks open on producer prices, China PPI surges 1.7 percent mom and ends the deflation run, last domino falls hard into 2026. 1.7 percent mom producer price spike ends the long deflation party, China factories crank costs higher, last domino tumbles while global buyers get the bill. They swore deflation was permanent, now look …
Trump says the U.S. will hit Iranian bridges that would take “15-20 years to rebuild.” Bridges are civilian infrastructure that millions of Iranians depend on daily. Destroying them doesn’t weaken the IRGC. It punishes ordinary people and makes postwar reconstruction exponentially harder. And if the pattern holds, Iran will retaliate by hitting bridges somewhere in …
The chief medical officer for England told a gathering of health leaders that the Radio 4 Today programme helps to legitimise ‘vain’ experts with fringe views. Speaking at the Nuffield Trust Summit near Windsor this morning he said appearing to give credibility to these opinions can undermine life-saving public health initiatives, such as vaccines. And …
SITREP: Illegal Biological Laboratory Discovered in Las Vegas Residence with Biological Material with suspected intent to Spread Linked to Prior California Case – Over 1,000 Samples Collected for Testing On Saturday, January 31, 2026, a joint LVMPD SWAT, FBI, Hazmat, and other agencies executed a search warrant at a residence on Sugar Springs Drive in …
Long energy, short tech = spread trade of the year — Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) January 14, 2026 And so it begins. https://t.co/T62wTGGESY — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 14, 2026
Was Friday the start of a bigger pullback for stocks?$VIX Term Structure fell below 0.79 on Thursday. Volatility was too low. This only happened 3 other times in the past 4 years. Each case was followed by at least a -10% correction for $SPX pic.twitter.com/vDxvJRwZLY — Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) December 14, 2025 JAN 2008. Markets …
Fannie Mae is set to drop its 620 credit score minimum this month. On the surface level, this is huge, renters with good payment history, young people with thin files, anyone locked out by arbitrary score floors suddenly has a shot at conventional financing. Also, first time buyers are collapsing so Fannie Mae desperately needed …
This isn’t a healthy steepener; rather, it’s a front-end stalemate. Bills remain pinned above 4% while 2s glide lower, so the spread improves mechanically without signaling real easing of funding conditions. The brief positive blip in January signaled markets briefly priced a faster cut-path than the bill complex would allow; but that died as administered-rate …
Credit card APRs vs. fed funds: the spread that will not mean revert byu/MonetaryCommentary inbonds The gap between what banks charge on plastic and the policy rate has turned into a structural toll. It shows credit card APRs that shadow tightening phases but refuse to pass through easing with the same intensity, which lifts the …
Left-wing propaganda Russian collusion → pushed for years with no proof of Trump–Putin coordination. “Hands up, don’t shoot” (Ferguson) → DOJ investigation found the claim false. Hunter Biden laptop → dismissed as “Russian disinfo” in 2020, later verified authentic. COVID origins → lab leak theory censored as conspiracy, now admitted plausible. “Border is secure” → …
Heavy spending on cloud and artificial intelligence pushes Amazon’s free cash flow lower even as profits surge leaving investors questioning buyback potential. Amazon used too much cash in capital expenditure to build AI and cloud computing. — roger the investor (@roger1006g) August 30, 2025
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, said famine is occurring in Gaza City, home to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, and that it could spread south to Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis by the end of next month.
Support for Israel has fallen below 50 percent in the United States. When casualties surpass 60,000, public opinion tends to shift. The stark numbers reflect a growing unease that goes beyond simple allegiance https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/29/death-toll-in-israels-war-on-gaza-surpasses-60000. Gaza faces a deepening famine crisis with over 20 percent of the population severely short on food.Starvation works quietly, cutting through …
Housing slump widens as home prices fall in one-third of top markets, from 31 to 110 in six months and no bottom yet 6 months ago, I said on @Todd_Sachs' show that my analysis suggested that we'd see the count rise to around 150 (among these 300) negative year-over-year for home prices (using ZHVI) at …
As of June 2025, these are the new rules Carnival Cruise has implemented. pic.twitter.com/rfp1vXOnOs — The Daily Sneed™ (@Tr00peRR) July 4, 2025
🚨NEW—CNN REPORTS THAT VIOLENT RIOTS ARE SPREADING TO MAJOR CITIES ACROSS THE COUNTRY! – Dallas– Louisville– Atlanta– New York City "Many protestors say it's time to take a stand against the Trump administration's policies…" pic.twitter.com/pKdjR5jwKS — Townhall.com (@townhallcom) June 10, 2025 🚨 JUST IN: Rep. Tim Burchett calls for looters to be SH0T on sight …
It looks like a bull flag has formed in CDX HY spread. If that's the case, the real fun is about to start. pic.twitter.com/RuFD8oObMP — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) March 26, 2025 So far, the “buy the dip” behavior from retail is very similar to Q1 2022. The $SPX didn’t bottom until Q4 2022. $SPY …
by Michael If we are seeing this much fear now, how bad will it be if H5N1 starts spreading from human to human on a widespread basis? Since the bird flu pandemic began in early 2022, over 148 million birds have been ordered to be euthanized in the United States alone. But killing all those …
by Michael High winds returned to Los Angeles on Sunday morning, and that is making one of the most catastrophic disasters in U.S. history even worse. Already, more than 60 square miles in the L.A. area have been burned. To put that in perspective, the entire city of Washington D.C. covers just over 68 square …
Update on the winter storm that is impacting the country. Warnings are expanding as active weather continues.
The BIGGEST liars & spreaders of Misinformation & Disinformation is always;1. The Government 2. Corporate News Media The want to censor you on social media when you tell the TRUTH, not lies. The Oligarchy runs on Lies & is allergic to TRUTH, it’s their kryptonite. https://t.co/bFtzVb2LY9 — Jimmy Dore (@jimmy_dore) January 1, 2025
My take is that 30yr mortgage is in a pause before heading higher. — Alistair (@kiwiangloameric) December 21, 2024 BREAKING: 30 year average US mortgage rates are above 7% again, per Mortgage News Daily. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 21, 2024 $500 billion for 5 days? 🤨 https://t.co/RkcFxJ0OGq pic.twitter.com/NXfcFpSr3f — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 21, 2024 Extremely …
#recession … #StockMarket Bubble edition https://t.co/vl8Sc7lSwq — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) November 22, 2024 #recession … #GFC2 US edition https://t.co/5LZ6pkEmk0 — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) November 22, 2024 There is also a divergence between the SP500 and the HY Bond A-D Line. Read more about this topic from 2022 at https://t.co/x35ebJJ6Od. https://t.co/qmvpv2h4eH pic.twitter.com/EOTvWebFAU — Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) …
The swamp runs deep folks. This campaign season saw the left still shrieking about the threat of disinformation from the right — even as Democrats openly and proudly embraced their commitment to telling lies and insisting they’re true. Exhibit 1 Billion: Courier Newsroom, a literal fake news outfit backed by the leading leftoid sugar daddy George …
🚨 #BREAKINGNEWS Jack Posobiec, Charlie Kirk and other Trump loyalist are now getting ahead of what appears to be a bombshell report on Donald Trump. Calling it AI and warning his supporters not to believe their own eyes and ears. Outside Trump's circle they are calling these… — Ford News (@FordJohnathan5) October 23, 2024
WARNING: Scenes like this will spread like WILDFIRE if Kamala steals the election. This is what you call a “flash mob”. There are a number of 7-Elevens that have been targeted recently with this one happening in LA on Oct. 5. They MERCILESSLY attacked the clerk that tried to… pic.twitter.com/USGdBaeLR3 — Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) October …
by Stargazer5781 Since the 10 – 2-year yield curve recently normalized I was curious if the same were true of the near-term forward spread (10-year – 3-month), which the Federal Reserve previously announced as the most accurate predictor of recession available. It is still inverted as I write this, but what I found more interesting …
https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836734007062470665 US 30 Yr minus the 3-month pic.twitter.com/f1UqwiYV2Z — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) September 19, 2024 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836735432463102043 hedge funds starting to hedge with short bonds ETFs Macro furus long bonds in shambles — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) September 19, 2024 Cuts ✂️ & Returns 📉 📈 pic.twitter.com/x4wS2qdlNp — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 19, 2024
Students returning to school in a growing number of states and districts are facing tight restrictions and outright bans on cellphone use as evidence mounts of the damaging impact persistent connection to the internet has on teenagers. In Los Angeles, the second-largest district in the country, the school board voted in June to ban cellphone …
