Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 US Real GDP grew at a whopping 5.2% (revision) in Q3. But was it organic growth or simply The Federal Government funding the defense and green energy industies with trillions in spending? One factor has been government spending which grew an unsustainably 4.7% in real terms over the last year. Outside the pandemic, this …
The Washington Post will pause ad spending on X because Elon Musk posted a Pizzagate meme. pic.twitter.com/ZAlv7kpZHB — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) November 29, 2023 The Washington Post has been able to attain just half of the job reductions it needs to secure before the end of the year, the newspaper’s leadership said this week. …
American workers facing financial hardships are increasingly tapping into their retirement accounts, with hardship withdrawals surging by 30% last year. As a result, one in six workers now has an outstanding loan on their retirement, significantly impacting average 401k balances and raising questions about the sustainability of consumer borrowing, especially as “Buy Now Pay Later” …
The U.S. narrowly avoids recession through exorbitant fiscal spending, raising questions about the sustainability of such measures. The ideological divide on economic policies, particularly Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), sparks debates on the feasibility of high fiscal deficits, leaving a lingering uncertainty about the future of economic stability. Exorbitant fiscal spending is probably the main reason …
Speaker Mike Johnson pitches Republicans on plan to avert government shutdown There are already a handful of Republicans who are skeptical of Johnson’s proposal to keep the government funded. At least two say they will vote against it. Reps. Chip Roy and Marjorie Taylor Greene said they’re a no. But would Democrats support it? “It’s …
Credit card balances often misrepresent borrowing as they mainly indicate spending. Despite being a primary consumer payment method in the US, many pay off their full balances monthly. In 2022, credit card transactions reached $5.8 trillion, up 18% YoY due to increased spending on travel and services amid inflation. Q3 saw credit card balances rise …
by confoundedinterest17 Appartently, Joe Biden and fellow big spenders in Washington DC, Mordor on The Potomac, don’t care about fiscal discipline. With seemingly endless spending of wars (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the invasion at our southern border, and inane “green” spending, Janet Yellen and the US Treasury will be auctioning off $776 billion of debt in the …
Consumer spending rose 4% in the July to September period, fueling a blowout quarter for economic growth, according to government data. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 31, 2023 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1719306931871834515
by confoundedinterest17 Biden’s leading “economist” Lael Brainard loves to brag about the strong economy under Bidenomics, and then pulled a brain freeze when asked about crashing savings rates as consumers struggle with inflation. The good news? One of The Fed’s favorite inflation indicators – Core PCE Deflator – slowed to 3.7% YoY in September (its lowest …
The U.S. deficit, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, is expanding at a pace twice as rapid as initially projected, primarily due to the previously undisclosed student loan debt. This trajectory points to a 2024 deficit that could surpass last year’s by a staggering $600 billion, representing a 40% surge within a single year. …
Biden is sending a $105 billion spending bill to Congress, most of it is for other countries. $60 billion of it is for Ukraine to get him thru 2024. 🤨 pic.twitter.com/IDqSXIzvBK — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) October 26, 2023 How are you feeling about 2024 so far? … 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/ztLoxlnQzD — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) …
"The consumer is in excellent shape." Me: checking sales of luxury goods… – Gucci: -7%– Yves Saint Laurent: -12%– Bottega Veneta: -7%– Other: Balenciaga/Alexander McQueen etc: -15% Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/dnhRqpGx0G — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) October 24, 2023 "Consumer spending is on the decline for the first time in a decade as inflation pushes prices …
by confoundedinterest17 I had a wonderful time speaking at the Passive Investors Conference last night. One question I was asked was “Why doesn’t Powell (the current Fed Chair) pull “a Volcker” to cool inflation. She was referring to former Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s sudden raising of The Fed’s target rate which resulted in a cooling …
The US’s mountain of debt has become a cause of concern for investors this year. The government is likely to spend more on interest payments than on defense over the next five years, per Capital Group. The ballooning debt burden could eventually chip away at the demand for Treasury bonds, according to the investment manager. …
Searches for "Can't pay credit card" hitting all time highs pic.twitter.com/s7hkSebIq2 — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 15, 2023 Credit card spending is finally starting to collapse… pic.twitter.com/XaMDwzyEIc — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 16, 2023 Parallels of 2018 keep flashing red. Back then US retail spending collapsed in November and December causing a #recession scare. Chart …
Gen-Z shoppers think using cash doesn’t count as spending, that anything under $5 is effectively FREE and that riding a $400 bike 400 times means it only costs a dollar The new phenomena of ‘girl’ and ‘boy’ math is taking TikTok by storm as Gen Z shoppers bizarrely claim using cash doesn’t count as spending …
From a government spending perspective, the increasing tensions between Israel and Hamas arguably carry an even greater significance. Unlike the Russia-Ukraine war, the recent conflict will likely receive bipartisan support for additional military aid due to Israel's strong… pic.twitter.com/gbvZW5MqKq — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 9, 2023 Winners: Weapon-makers: Lockheed Martin (LMT) gains +8.93% General …
Hamas and Hezbollah now reporting that Iran helped plan the Hamas terror attacks for weeks. Who opened the floodgates and supplied Iran to the tune of $100+ billion? Obama. Biden. Valerie Jarrett. The Iran Deal. This situation is far beyond just Israel and Palestine. pic.twitter.com/dTNv5ZavGp — Clandestine (@WarClandestine) October 8, 2023 The Hamas terrorists have …
Wage growth is dropping fast. Down to 3.9% YoY for American Workers. 📉 That is now the lowest rate of wage growth since the pandemic started. And also below the 60-year average. Bad news for US Economy & Housing Market. ❌ pic.twitter.com/YgomPshuyf — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) October 6, 2023 Americans are struggling to make ends …
Warning: Bank credit is offically contracting This has only happened during the Financial Crisis Buckle up pic.twitter.com/QpF0evOdNs — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 4, 2023 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1709918710310338758 U.S. Mortgage Rates surpassed 8% this week for the first time in more than 23 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/hha6FTuwsB — Barchart (@Barchart) October 5, 2023 *via Reuters – US economic activity …
Game over pic.twitter.com/2LvKu0YXdN — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2023 The median income last year was $74,580 compared with $76,330 in 2021, according to the Census Bureau. The 2.3% drop in incomes was the most since 2010. It was the third-straight annual decline. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 5, 2023 US Consumers Are Headed Down ‘A Death …
The US National Debt has now increased by over $2 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended just 4 months ago. pic.twitter.com/lWiHaYW7Ht — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 5, 2023 2 days ago, the US added $275 billion in 1 day due to social security payments at the end of the fiscal year. Since the debt …
via WSJ: Americans spent more in August 5.8% YoY, far more than inflation at 4.0%. The experience economy boomed this summer. Airlines had record revenues and Ticketmaster had 18% YoY increase in ticket sales. According to the NY Fed, the share of households that said they made at least one large purchase in the previous …
https://twitter.com/_/status/1708191999701000420 https://twitter.com/_/status/1708191997272400348 ‘US politicians on Saturday struck a deal to fund the government and avoid a shutdown. Democrats and Republicans in the House of Representatives voted 335-91 on a short-term funding bill – known as a continuing resolution – according to Sky News’ US partner network NBC News. The bill would keep the government open …
US housing market affordability is, by far, at its lowest point in history. Even in the worst part of the 2008 financial crisis, affordability was ~15% BETTER than its current levels. With the recent move higher in treasury yields, we should see 8%+ mortgages within a week or… pic.twitter.com/fhfRwmMcSf — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September …
With the median mortgage payment exceeding the cost of rent by $1,000 per month and average new car payments and used car loan interest rates reaching new highs, households are feeling the strain of increasing expenses. The milestone of $1 trillion in credit card debt, coupled with record-high interest rates of 25%, underscores the growing …
Congress is not a retirement home. We need Term Limits and Age Limits NOW. People should not be dying while in Office. They are clearly not making important decisions for the people they supposedly represent. Finesteon has been in power longer then I have been alive. That is called a Dictatorship. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/09/29/dianne-feinstein-dead.html https://www.foxnews.com/politics/california-senator-dianne-feinstein-dead-90 h/t …
1. The Pentagon bill, absent Ukraine aid, cleared the lower chamber in a 218-210 vote, with two Republicans – Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) and Ken Buck (R-Colo.) – opposing it, and two Democrats – Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wa.) – joining Republicans to pass it. 2. A stand-alone bill providing $300 million in …
Analysts are repeating the same mistake made during the 2008 Financial Crisis by revising earnings upwards despite a contraction in leading economic indicators, raising major warning signals. The US is experiencing deficit spending near 10% of GDP, reaching levels last seen in 2008, yet the Fed maintains that there is no recession in sight, leading …
