Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
When the fortress starts building a moat against $120 oil, the narrative has flipped. Iran War Risks Oil Price Shocks: Dimon JPMorgan CEO warns of sticky inflation, higher interest rates amid geopolitical tensions. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that the war in Iran poses a significant risk of oil and commodity price shocks, potentially …
Iran may be activating sleeper cells outside of the country, according to an alert that was intercepted by the US. The encrypted communications, believed to have come from inside Iran, was sent as an ‘operational trigger’ for ‘sleeper assets,’ according to ABC News. Sleeper cells are agents or terrorists planted in countries who blend in …
The $16 billion company is pushing more into the transaction side of the real estate industry, which Jeremy Wacksman calls ‘a better business to be in.’ On his Zillow account, Jeremy Wacksman has “favorited” every home he’s ever lived in, just to keep tabs. Among them: a two-story, 2,500-square-foot house with four bedrooms, 2½ bathrooms …
Joseph Schnitt, Deputy Chief at the DOJ’s Office of Enforcement Operations, was caught on hidden camera saying the agency plans to redact every Republican name from the Epstein files while leaving Democratic names intact. “They’ll redact every Republican or conservative person in those files, leave all the liberal, Democratic people in those files, and have …
via notayesmanseconomics: After looking at China a couple of days ago it is again time to look East to Nihon this time. We can start with the latest economic news. TOKYO — Japan’s economy grew an annualized 1.0% in the April-to-June quarter from the previous three months, according to preliminary government figures released Friday, avoiding …
The U.S. just announced a 15% tariff hike on Japanese imports. This comes two weeks after Trump declared a “massive” trade agreement with Japan on July 22, calling it “maybe the largest deal in history.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/22/trump-trade-deal-japan-tariff-imports/85331747007/ The July 23 agreement was supposed to lock in a 15% baseline tariff and prevent a threatened 25% hike. …
Typical $60K household left with just $500 a month after bills. This time, there’s no big event — no crash, no panic. Just a grind: Rents up 30% Groceries + utilities up 20–25% Insurance +40–60% Credit card APRs above 22% Costs are up — and nothing’s coming down. — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) August 5, 2025 …
Ghislaine Maxwell was moved from a low-security federal prison in Tallahassee, Florida to the minimum-security Federal Prison Camp in Bryan, Texas. This transfer followed a two‑day meeting with Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, who asked about about 100 individuals linked to Epstein’s network.“We can confirm Ghislaine Maxwell is in the custody of the Federal Bureau …
Salazar’s bill is a betrayal of Trump’s mandate. The Dignity Act rewards illegal entry with legal status—$7K fines and “merit-based reentry” are just amnesty dressed in bureaucratic jargon. Enforcement isn’t negotiable. ICE must deport, not process paperwork. Every dollar spent… — Watch DOGE (@dogeai_gov) July 16, 2025
China’s economy is in deep trouble, and it’s hitting even the fancy luxury brands hard. LVMH, the big-name luxury giant, just warned that demand for their high-end stuff is tanking in China. People there aren’t buying the glitzy bags and watches like they used to, consumer… — The American Flea (@TheAmericaFlea) May 22, 2025
They say inflation is cooling. The market claps. Yields dip. And just as quickly, they climb right back up. Over and over again. It is not confusion. It is the new reality. And many still do not get it. Soft inflation used to mean celebration. It meant the Fed could cut, the economy was easing …
South Korea is bailing out small businesses. China is injecting $80B into its banking system. Factories are furloughing workers. Bond markets are collapsing. The Bank of Korea froze, paralyzed by “uncertainty,” but will be forced to cut rates again. The PBOC — despite trying to exit emergency measures — was yanked back in, flooding the …
Tell me again about that “Soft Landing” – how the Economy is getting stronger…. US Capacity Utilization is declining – currently at 76.8%. So… why would businesses be hiring people with this capacity utilization? Tell me again about that "Soft Landing" – how the Economy is getting stronger…. US Capacity Utilization is declining – currently …
What have we learned from the market this Fall? There are 2 paths forward for Real Estate and both are painful: 1. Higher rates, stagnant market, layoffs, prices grind flat or down 2. Lower rates that come when the economy collapses, not because the Fed waves a magic wand — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) December 20, …
Unemployment has accurately followed Labour differential data each and everytime since the 80s. “Labour differential” refers to the difference in labor costs between two regions, industries, or types of workers. It’s used to compare wages, productivity, or work conditions, especially when companies are deciding where to set up operations. Cost difference: How much cheaper or …
The savings rate — the amount of money people are putting away as a percentage of disposable income — has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, per Axios: pic.twitter.com/0wrWhnHP6x — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 13, 2024 U.S. housing affordability is worse than the peak of the 2006 housing bubble After a modest improvement in …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, When everyone finally leaves the La-La-Land casino and abandons the fairy tale, household wealth held in stocks is a fraction of what it was in the heady days of hot hands rotating into the next hot sector. The reason why a “soft landing” is a fairy tale straight out …
Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us, If people have learned anything from the past few years of Ivy League elites and TV talking heads feeding them economic predictions, I hope they finally understand that the “experts” are usually wrong and that alternative analysts have a far better track record. Whenever establishment economists make a a …
Global economy’s glide to ‘soft landing’ gets bumpy as bond yields jump WASHINGTON, Oct 6 (Reuters) – Rocketing U.S. government bond yields that have led to a global jump in borrowing costs are raising new risks for economic policymakers hoping to lower inflation without triggering a major crisis. The world’s finance officials, who will gather …
via realinvestmentadvice: The Fed’s “soft landing” hopes are likely overly optimistic. Such was the context of the recent #BullBearReport, which discussed the long record of the Fed’s economic growth projections. To wit: “However, there is a problem with the Fed projections. They are historically the worst economic forecasters ever. We have tracked the median point of the Fed projections since 2011, …
2/ Recent market dynamics show a consensus for the "soft landing" narrative, spurred by a strong consumer base and a resilient labor market But, a deeper dive reveals emerging consumer weaknesses & the pivotal role H2 2023 should play in the unemployment landscape — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 28, 2023 4/ Indeed, compared to the …