Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Everything was set for a big signing ceremony today, but Trump pulled the plug at the last minute because he didn’t like the idea of the government vetting models for safety. He’s obsessed with beating China and keeping the “jobs” flowing, so he’s ditching the plan that would’ve forced OpenAI and Google to let the …
⚡🇺🇸 US Air Force just kept the skies busy again today with a massive airlift surge into the Middle East… and it is not slowing down. Aircraft moving nonstop. Heavy loads. Strategic movement. This is not routine. Something big is building… and it is happening right now.… pic.twitter.com/LATrLp0vAg — Defense Intelligence (@DI313_) April 14, 2026 …
By Peter Reagan Sometimes life doesn’t space things out for you. It stacks them. A broken appliance. A medical scare. A bill you weren’t expecting. None of those things are unusual on their own – but when they arrive together, that’s when it starts to feel overwhelming. Lately, I’ve been thinking about how much the …
Yeah, GDP just falling off a cliff. pic.twitter.com/o12I4zWeDz — Derek Columbus (@columbus_derek) February 10, 2026 Goldman Sachs cuts Q4 GDP to 1.6% 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/brJug5LRqT — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 10, 2026 an overlay of 2008 & 2026… why is nobody talking about this… pic.twitter.com/oS0p2XDR2S — ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ (@hamptonism) February 10, 2026
The economy looks fine on paper while people struggle just to get by. As Statista’s Felix Richter reports below, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 9.3 million Americans reported working multiple jobs in November 2025 – the highest number ever recorded since the BLS started tracking multiple jobholders in 1994. https://www.activistpost.com/9-3-million-americans-work-multiple-jobs-to-make-ends-meet/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 FED'S …
US TREASURY LAYS OUT $125B REFUNDING PLAN The US Treasury will sell $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds next week as part of a $125 billion refunding through April 2026, raising $34.8 billion in new cash. Auction sizes for… — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 4, …
by Michael When the economy and the financial system are both greatly shaken at the same time, the consequences can be extremely painful. Most of you still clearly remember what life was like in 2008 and 2009. It was such a dark chapter in American history. But there have been other times when we have …
The $16 billion company is pushing more into the transaction side of the real estate industry, which Jeremy Wacksman calls ‘a better business to be in.’ On his Zillow account, Jeremy Wacksman has “favorited” every home he’s ever lived in, just to keep tabs. Among them: a two-story, 2,500-square-foot house with four bedrooms, 2½ bathrooms …
"As seen in PNC’s Christmas Price Index, which tracks the cost of each gift in the song “The Twelve Days of Christmas,” prices rose by 4.5% in 2025, down from 2024’s 5.4% gain." -JPMorgan AM pic.twitter.com/AKmUtyNVSf — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) December 24, 2025
Forget the Headlines The 3 Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth. The 3 month Treasury is basically the market’s closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate, so when it starts drifting meaningfully below that range, it’s the market’s way of saying, “We’re already looking past today’s rate …
by Mike Maharrey After barely rising in August, consumer debt grew modestly in September, likely reflecting growing debt stress on American households. The U.S. economy depends on consumers buying stuff. Persistent price inflation forced Americans to blow through their savings and then turn to credit cards to make ends meet. Credit card spending has slowed …
It’s not just $CMG dropping. Even fast food is dropping Wendy’s has been smashed and they probably have the best food of them all. It all comes back to the consumer pic.twitter.com/wCURBOAS19 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 1, 2025 🚨MORGAN STANLEY: THE BULL MARKET IS ABOUT TO END. Andrew Slimmon says we’re in the late …
https://twitter.com/tweet4Anna_NAFO/status/1982936867071832397 Russian businesses’ profits fell 8.3%, or 1.6 trillion rubles ($19.9 billion), in January-August, according to Rosstat. “As economic growth slows and revenues shrink, Moscow can no longer ramp up fiscal stimulus and is instead imposing austerity measures that threaten to further choke the civilian economy,” said Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at the Center …
And no magic liquidity indicator or fancy theory will change that. Major layoffs announced in 2025: • UPS: 48,000 employees • Amazon: up to 30,000 employees • Intel: 24,000 employees • Nestlé: 16,000 employees • Accenture: 11,000 employees • Ford: 11,000 employees • Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees • Microsoft: 9,000 employees • Chevron: 8,000 employees …
August hiring plans were the lowest since 2009. U.S. employers have announced 892,362 layoffs YTD, the most since 2020. Excluding COVID, this is the worst since the Great Financial Crisis. pic.twitter.com/6T7dxzZjvo — StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) October 4, 2025 It’s no wonder that the younger generations – Gen z and especially millennials are feeling much less confident …
First LA, now Dallas. These protests don’t seem to be slowing…pic.twitter.com/JnHOT6Qp65 https://t.co/nUGmDksjET — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 10, 2025
There's been no sign that government spending is slowing. If anything it's growing. pic.twitter.com/y88N4uPh8T — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 6, 2025 Trump assured there won't be cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security. He said the only government spending cuts he would not veto are for waste, fraud, and abuse, as nobody minds that. …
Fed Chair Jerome Powell: "While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected and the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth." pic.twitter.com/BiybBbBTAh — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 13, 2025
Fed Minutes (January 2025) Fed can maintain policy at restrictive level if economy strong Several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution Two participants believe risks to achieving inflation mandate outweigh risks to employment mandate Most participants judged risks to dual mandate objectives were roughly in balance Fed wants further …
Bond experts sense slowing momentum, and it’s hard to ignore the warning signs. Something’s shifting beneath the surface. Why are yields falling when the Fed is going to pause on Wednesday at FOMC? What’s the bond market seeing that we aren’t? A recession? 💀 https://t.co/UR5ugAL8IA — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 28, 2025 Those are the …
For reference, Chinese yields are already lower than during the peak of the Great Financial Crisis and the pandemic meltdown. Something huge is happening in China – and we should pay attention. 2/ pic.twitter.com/zwWT9y7jsQ — Alf (@MacroAlf) December 20, 2024 The Chinese private sector debt as a % of GDP has exploded north of 200%, …
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.4% in October and hit its lowest since March 2016. This index has not seen an increase for 32 consecutive months, the longest streak on record. The streak has even exceeded the previous records of 25 months in the 1974-1975 recession and 24 months during the 2008 …
Nvidia $NVDA only expects revenue of $37.5 billion next quarter. The growth is slowing. (*Reminder, all of these companies are using Non-GAAP instead of GAAP because it allows them to do round-trip financing 🤫) https://t.co/RTniBc6M8j pic.twitter.com/7cNDvdbNIx — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) November 20, 2024 Doesn't matter, as soon as growth evaporates the stock crashes because it's massively …
US PPI Final Demand (M/M) Jul: 0.1% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)– PPI Ex Food And Energy (M/M) Jul: 0.0% (est 0.2%; prev 0.4%)– PPI Final Demand (Y/Y) Jul: 2.2% (est 2.3%; prev 2.6%)– PPI Ex Food And Energy (Y/Y) Jul: 2.4% (est 2.6%; prev 3.0%) — LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) August 13, 2024 Futures on a tear …
by Mike Maharrey America runs on debt. And American consumers may be getting close to their credit card limits, yet another signal the U.S. economy could be teetering on the brink of a recession. (If it’s not there already.) According to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve, revolving credit cratered in June for the …
Airbnb shares dropped 14% in after-hours trading after the company reported second-quarter earnings that missed analyst expectations and warned that it’s seeing signs of slowing demand from U.S. customers. Here’s how the company did compared to LSEG estimates for the quarter ended June 30: Earnings per share: $0.86 versus $0.92 expected. Revenue: $2.75 billion versus …
by confoundedinterest17 Hot ‘Lanta! Or perhaps COLD ‘Lanta! And despite what Biden says, thiere isn’t an economic revival. Yes. everyone can see the mental decline in President Biden and he should be in a nursing home. While he vows to run for President against Donald Trump, can you imagine what he will be like in 2 years? …
by confoundedinterest17 I learn something new everyday. Like Biden yesterday claimed has was VP during Covid (uhm, Covid was in 2020 and Biden left the office of VP in 2017). But nothing gets in the way of Biden and a good story! Like his whopper that he inherited 9% inflation from Trump (even CNN fact-checked …
ASHINGTON — The Biden administration is discussing using weaponry sales to Israel as leverage to convince the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to heed longstanding U.S. calls to scale back its military assault in the Gaza Strip, according to three current U.S. officials and one former U.S. official familiar with the discussions. At the …
It's not just you: YouTube is slowing down your PC if you have AdBlock installed by making your CPU sweat, likely as part of its draconian war on ad blockershttps://t.co/1npHLw8F9r. — EndGameWW3 🇺🇸 (@EndGameWW3) January 15, 2024 AdBlock users have been reporting widespread performance issues with the extension enabled on YouTube, and while suspicion justifiably fell …