Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
On Tuesday, April 14, at the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong, CEO Georges Elhedery said something on live Bloomberg television that should have detonated every energy desk on earth. It did not. Because nobody is reading what it actually means. “The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, …
Crazy to think that money supply is expanding this aggressively even as global central bank balance sheets have been contracting. We’ve seen a $10T increase in global money supply in just the past 12 months. Now imagine what happens once central banks inevitably need to expand their balance sheets again — which, in my view, …
The Big Short wasn’t about 2008. It was about every earnings call you’re watching right now. 2006: lenders bragged about profits while delinquency rates exploded. 2025: – Corporates brag about “AI revenue” but hide costs. – They brag about “stable headcount” but bury workforce hollowing. – They brag about “strong balance sheets” but roll silent …
Link to article:https://t.co/PjjGEIgPNo — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) August 28, 2025
The only thing these companies will be mining in a year is Chapter 11 paperwork. WSJ Small companies are pouring billions into bitcoin and lesser-known cryptocurrencies — raising big questions about risk, regulation, and what could go wrong if the market turns. — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) July 26, 2025 We have eclipsed peak insanity. In …
Drivers across Florida and even the country report alarming paint‑peeling problems on their cars. There are thousands of complaints from owners saying sheets of paint, not just small chips, are flaking off, exposing bare primer. “My daughter’s hood basically just flaked completely off, probably maybe 10% of the paint was left on it. And then …
Earnings are set to disappoint, and it’s not just about outlooks. The damage is already done. Some are wondering why the Russell 2000 is getting hammered while tech stocks are the focus of the pullback. Others debate whether earnings themselves will be bad or if only guidance will suffer. The answer is simple: both are …
Schedule for deceitful q4 reporting/ 2024 :$C Jan 15th $GS Jan 15th $JPM Jan 15th$WFC Jan 15th$BAC Jan 16th — Meyers.™ (@Meyers__MD) December 26, 2024 Trump is being handed a ticking time bomb. Janet Yellen has left his administration with $7 trillion of debt to refinance in 2025 alone. This comes as the 10yr bond …
TL:DR: Big banks are hiding risky investments off their books, just like they did before the 2008 crash. This could cause another financial crisis. Banks like JPMorgan Chase have trillions of dollars in risky investments they don’t report on their main financial statements. Regulators are worried and want the banks to set aside more money …
via Douglas French The wordsmiths at the Federal Reserve wisely omitted the line about a “sound and resilient” banking system in its statement on January 31. That same day shares of New York Community Bank plunged when the bank announced a loss of thirty-six cents per share when analysts expected earnings of twenty-seven cents a share for …
ECB Balance Sheet QT: -€1.77 Trillion from Peak, now down to €7.07 Trillion. Shed 43% of Pandemic QE Assets Quantitative tightening (QT) powers along in the euro area. Total assets on the ECB’s weekly balance sheet plunged by another €75 billion over the week, to €7.07 trillion, the lowest level since December 2020. The ECB …
From the WSJ: A surge in interest rates likely worsened unrealized losses on bonds and loans held by U.S. banks in the third quarter, further straining their balance sheets as they face pressure to pay more to keep depositors. Unrealized losses were a key cause of Silicon Valley Bank’s failure in March, which spurred other …
For CMBS, it’s 2007 Right now is the bargaining stage for CRE—assets quietly being liquidated to meet redemptions, balance sheets tidying up, the industry stoically battening the hatches All trying not to panic Dry powder? Yes But there’s a storm on the horizon https://t.co/y6jVEw3C1k — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) July 17, 2023 Fun Fact: Egg prices …