Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
President Trump has been answering questions from the media for over an hour… WHERE'S KAMALA? pic.twitter.com/ro9OXczDpu — Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) August 8, 2024 https://twitter.com/_/status/1821614007553556554
Traders are now 100% certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September. There are now 93.3% odds that the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate, its key rate, will be lowered by a quarter percentage point to 5% to 5.25% in September from the current 5.25% to 5.50%, according to the …
“Emergency rate cuts” equals hard-landing recession is inevitable and already underway. No central bank has ever “emergency rate cut” itself out of a recession. https://t.co/QP44holn9s — Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) July 7, 2024 Negative growth in Full Time Work. No false positives in predicting a recession. pic.twitter.com/F7nYdUVqv0 — James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) July 6, 2024 …
In June, construction industry saw largest increase in layoff announcements per @ChallengerGray … hasn't seen a spike that large since September 2007 pic.twitter.com/6zee9KAtVf — Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 3, 2024 Continuing claims a new cycle high Approaching 1.9mm #MacroEdge https://t.co/sDxirI4NOC pic.twitter.com/Rod0M3P2mT — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) July 3, 2024 Nice little pop in job openings in …
Central banks around the world are now starting to cut interest rates. With the Bank of Canada and the ECB being the first two central banks to cut. Does that mean that the Federal Reserve might be next?
Also: Jobs data tends to lag, indicating the situation might be worse than the market currently anticipates. Paradoxically, this is bullish for the near future as the market is eager to price in the cuts. TLDR: Bad news is good news. — Phoenix Capital (@PhoenixCapitalH) December 5, 2023 Job openings/S&P500 h/t Tonight We Ride!
Homebuyer traffic has experienced a significant decline, nearly 40% since the beginning of 2023, reaching levels not seen since the 2020 lockdowns, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 1980s housing crash. What makes the situation intriguing is the recent surge in new home sales, rising by 12.3% in September, defying expectations of a decline, all …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenflation, a name for the combination of reckless Federal spending and excess monetary stimulus related to Covid, is still causing severe pain for the middle class. The massive Federal spending splurge is still working its way through the economy and causing distortions, like surging new home sales despite higher mortgage rates. Some background …
As Americans grapple with average monthly payments of $500 for student loans and $740 for new cars, resulting in the average American spending a staggering $1,240 each month just to finance a car and manage student debt, with delinquency rates expected to keep climbing. Meanwhile, the median homebuyer is spending $2,900 on monthly home payments. …
For a long time the narrative has been goods inflation is now under control, mission accomplished and services is the only dragon left to slay. Now we are starting to see rising consumer spending on goods again, leading to hotter inflation there. Historically inflation episodes often come in waves and pulses, it’s not short and …
Pride Month/Canada/Date (2023) Thu, 1 Jun 2023 – Fri, 30 Jun 2023 Turned into …. ‘June to September is Pride Season in Canada, a time to celebrate 2SLGBTQI+ people (that is, people who are Two-Spirit, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, or intersex, or who use other terms related to sexual or gender diversity) and honour …
by Chris Black We can call them new Americans or whatever, but the truth is, this is a new record for illegal border crossings. We’re on the up and up. US Border Patrol just reported the highest number of recorded illegal immigrants in history at over 260,000 this month. The full number, including unrecorded, may …
This century meaning since 2000. The early 80s were, according to most housing affordability metrics, worse than this. — Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) September 27, 2023 Homes ‘unaffordable’ in 99% of nation for average American… The typical American cannot afford to buy a home in a growing number of communities across the nation, according to common …
The number of missing and runaway children in Ohio for 2023 is nearly double that of states with similar populations, sparking panic among parents and police who in some towns can’t keep up with the number of teenagers running away. In this month alone, 45 children have been reported missing in the Cleveland area. They …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhcPhwoOXWs Investors should fasten their belts for a volatile fall as September begins. This month is historically known as the cruelest for stocks, with data going all the way back to 1928 showing that Wall Street reports significant losses and enters into “correction mode” as soon as the autumn kicks off. The Nasdaq and the …
The government wants you to get 5 shots in September… 5 🤪👇pic.twitter.com/KDYz05iOjN https://t.co/AuH1VfIePg — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 1, 2023 h/t Simian_Stacker
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, In stock market news, toilet paper manufacturers continued rallying while tech and luxury-brand stocks continued their slide to decade lows. September 1, 2025: The Federal Reserve announced that the nation’s inflation rate has finally reached its target of 3%, after seasonal and hedonic adjustments. “The brief period of modestly higher …
Bad news is good news till when? Till bad news becomes very bad news. Unemployment goes to 3.8% and the markets like it. Credit cards and subprime auto delinquencies at years high already at 3.5% unemployment. Let’s see what happens with delinquencies at a 3.8% unemployment… Payrolls rose by 187,000 in August, unemployment rate rises …
Global stock markets peaked a month ago at the end of July. Then fell for the first three weeks of August. Today, Nasdaq breadth was strongest since the market top. September will be hell. pic.twitter.com/FST2UcLsci — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 30, 2023 The FDIC is literally using the same script as 2020… They're changing the reserve …
Donald Trump and 18 co-defendants are set to be arraigned in Fulton County on September 6 in the Georgia 2020 elections subversion case. The former president is expected to enter a non-guilty plea and will be held at 9:30 a.m. ET, according to court filings. Rudy Giuliani will be the second arraignment at 9: 45 …
“Charles Schwab owes 130% of their total equity capital to short duration FHLB loans that have to be paid back soon. Total assets $350 billion… There’s your September Lehman Brothers.” Charles Schwab 📉 Probably nothing…pic.twitter.com/Bgn5i8uUHC https://t.co/S94qKp1SJV — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 21, 2023 BREAKING: Charles Schwab to cut jobs, close and downsize some corporate offices, with …
via Mike Shedlock: The United Auto Workers (UAW) contract with GM, Ford, and Stellantis will expire on September 14. The UAW demands are outright ludicrous. A strike appears likely. UAW Demands 32-hour workweek 46 percent pay raise over 4 years Right to strike over plant closures Increased retiree benefits Defined pension plan for all workers …
Gingrich earlier tonight. 'We are drifting towards the greatest constitutional crisis since the 1850s. This indictment is a desperate effort by a corrupt machine to destroy their most dangerous opponent, in a way which obliterates the Constitution."pic.twitter.com/ntUpCHxQDM — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) August 15, 2023 Gingrich goes on to urge House Republicans to cut off …
Industrial US companies are seeing their businesses in China slow down considerably. DuPont, Dow and Caterpillar have cut their sales outlook for the country into this year. https://t.co/LJ0ARJ9jMW Tesla cut prices in China again. https://t.co/tuTnwNZFSO — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 14, 2023 Everything is fine … 🔥🔥🔥 Student loan payments resume in September. pic.twitter.com/l7C34hjf10 — …
by DesmondMilesDant Caption: Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP est will update on Aug 1 which will be 3.9% up from 3.5%. Caption: Cleveland Fed suggests August cpi in September to be 3.9% but generally, it comes a % down. What this means is rates are 100% going 6% and then it upto our Jamie Dimon if …
by confoundedinterest17 So far, President Biden has drained almost 50% of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) under his Reign of Error. And regular gasoline prices are up 48% since Biden assumed the Presidency on Jan 20, 2021. We have massive caverns for oil storage that are sitting empty. Then we have the US Dollar, down -12.5% …
Total BTFP & OCE didn't drop this week. The Fed paused pulling liquidity from the banks Now that we know Bullard is leaving the Fed on Aug 14 that's the likely target week when the Fed plans to start dramatically reducing BTFP & OCE liquidity, causing the banking crisis in Sep🤫 https://t.co/lwuGir9xCj pic.twitter.com/om91NKrS9u — Financelot …
“Economists polled by Reuters expect another move of the same magnitude in July before the ECB pauses for the rest of 2023. ECB President Christine Lagarde is nevertheless expected to keep a further hike in September in play during her press conference on Thursday, and to push back against traders’ bets that the central bank …
