Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
via Mike Shedlock Let’s investigate Fed Fund Futures and rate cut expectations. The above chart is adapted from May and June CME Fedwatch Futures. The next Fed meeting is on May 7. As of March 23, the market thinks there is only a 22.1 percent chance of a single quarter-point cut. But if we further out …
Steepest drop since September 2008. pic.twitter.com/8lMdk43vdb — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 16, 2024 China’s retail sales rose by 3% in November from a year ago, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Monday, missing the forecast of 4.6% in a Reuters poll. That marked a sharp slowdown from 4.8% growth in the previous month. Retail sales in October …
The unemployment level is now higher than where it was when the Fed cut rates (September). pic.twitter.com/epNpEKuaSt — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) December 9, 2024
A new technology to continuously place individual atoms exactly where they are needed could lead to new materials for devices that address critical needs for the field of quantum computing and communication that cannot be produced by conventional means, say scientists who developed it. A research team at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National …
by confoundedinterest17 Rolling into Cleveland to the lake. NEW YORK, NOVEMBER 26, 2024: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the September 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices recorded a 3.9% annual gain in September 2024, a slight deceleration from the previous annual gains in 2024. …
The U.S. has added $104 billion in debt in just one day, bringing the total to $655 billion in a little over five weeks since September 26. This alarming pace suggests an annualized rate of nearly $6.8 trillion if the trend continues, showcasing an accelerating fiscal dominance that borders on absurdity. As of October 2024, …
BREAKING: Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo fell by $50B to $155B for the first time since 2021. Normally when this money market fund liquidity leaves RRP it goes into U.S. Treasuries, driving yields down. Instead the U.S. 10 year yield rocketed to 4.365% this week. BREAKING: Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo fell by $50B to $155B for …
I work for an oil and fuel distributor and things have been slowing down rapidly with all industries we serve — Oliver Cromwell (@__Wait_for_it_) October 30, 2024 BREAKING: US layoffs jumped by 160,000 in September, to 1.83 million, the second-highest in 4 years. pic.twitter.com/V0BrIOnFzo — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 30, 2024 Sources U.S. Bureau …
by confoundedinterest17 Jackson Browne appartently knew that the Biden/Harris economic recovery would run out of gas as soon as Federal spending started to slow down. The US economy is running on empty. Evidence? The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.28 in September from –0.01 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used …
by confoundedinterest17 We are in the jungle. And its a bungle in the economic jungle. Existing home sales disappointed (yet again) in September, declining 1.0% MoM (vs expectations of a 0.5% MoM rise). August’s 2.5% MoM drop was revised up to a 2.0% MoM drop, but still left existing home sales down 3.5% YoY… Source: Bloomberg Total sales …
by confoundedinterest17 SF Woman. That is my name for Kamala Harris, the ultimate political changeling, taking full credit for the economy, then trying to distance herself from Biden. As the US economy continues to contract. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.5% in September 2024 to 99.7 (2016=100), following a 0.3% …
by Mike Shedlock Housing continues to slowly weaken and completions surge relative to starts and permits. Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 2.9 percent below the revised August rate of 1,470,000 and is 5.7 percent below the September 2023 …
Gold and US debt are highly correlated. We know for a fact that US debt is only going one way. pic.twitter.com/QSNmE35l87 — In Gold We Trust (@IGWTreport) October 8, 2024 Pressure at the 2,600 level for gold as the XAU/USD trades at 2,617.48. Fundamental indicators still support the yellow metal 🪙 as both Central Banks …
“Stellar NFIB Sep report showing an economy steaming ahead at full throttle. Max uncertainty – highest on record, higher than during COVID Ease of hiring – Sep major easing vs August completely at odds with NFP – As easy as Dec 19 (Smalls are largest private employers in US) % planning capex spend down 5 …
by Mike Shedlock BLS math is often peculiar. This month is a real doozie. Four charts. Data from the BLS Household Survey, chart by Mish Private vs Government Employment Notes Data is from the Household Survey as is the Unemployment Rate The BLS says wage and salary government employment rose by 785,000 The BLS says …
by confoundedinterest17 It turns out that Powell’s “emergency” 50bps rate cut was – drumroll – another major policy mistake by the Fed. Or it is Presidential election interference by The Biden/Harris Administration giving Cacklin’ Kamala as talking point? Moments ago, the BLS reported that at a time when prevailing consensus was for jobs to continue their recent downward slide …
G7 countries debt-to-GDP ratios in 2024: United States: 123% United Kingdom: 104% Italy: 139% France: 112% Japan: 255% Germany: 64% Canada: 105% ⚠️GLOBAL ECONOMY IS DRIVEN BY A MASSIVE DEBT BUBBLE⚠️ G7 countries debt-to-GDP ratios in 2024: United States: 123%United Kingdom: 104%Italy: 139%France: 112%Japan: 255%Germany: 64%Canada: 105% What is the long-term solution here? pic.twitter.com/sgA2qMfR4A — …
View post on imgur.com https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence Consumers’ view on the economy tumbled in September, falling by the largest level in more than three years as fears grew about jobs and business conditions, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The board’s consumer confidence index slid to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, the biggest one-month decline since August …
More good news: A nice bounce in consumer sentiment in September, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. People are noticing lower prices and cooling inflation: 1-year Inflation expectations are down to the lowest since 2020. pic.twitter.com/u8KupQHMRu — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 13, 2024 1. Highest consumer sentiment since May 2. Lowest 1-yr …
30-Year Treasury Yield fell below 4% for the first time this year 🚨 pic.twitter.com/giQ4QczZtV — Barchart (@Barchart) September 11, 2024 Risk appetite has deteriorated sharply in September to its lowest for nearly two-and-a-half years pic.twitter.com/mdIHyhEb5t — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 11, 2024 BREAKING 🚨: Crude Oil Hedge Funds are now the least bullish on …
by Michael The UN wants much more control over global affairs, and “the Pact for the Future” which is scheduled to be adopted during “the Summit of the Future” that will be held on September 22nd and 23rd will go a long way toward making that a reality. But even though “the Summit of the …
September 26, 20073:36 PM EDTUpdated 17 years ago WASHINGTON, Sept 26 (Reuters) – U.S. inflation pressures are easing and the economy should manage a soft landing, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said on Wednesday. “The latest data reinforce the impression of an economy in which growth remains moderate and inflationary pressures are likely to …
We are just getting started… h/t IAmNotAnEconomist
Semiconductor stocks are leading benchmarks across Asia lower following a drop in US equites after Nvidia Corp. suffered a record-setting $279 billion rout. The US Justice Department sent subpoenas to Nvidia and other companies as it seeks evidence that the chipmaker violated antitrust laws. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-03/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?embedded-checkout=true Nvidia down 2% in premarket trading after plunge that wiped …
By Martin Armstrong Be mindful that we may see even gold make a high as we head into the first week of September. There appears to be disturbing signs in many markets as we head into the week of September 2nd. We have governments realizing that they are losing power, and as they do, they …
🚨 Put/Call ratio & open interest for September 20 is a little concerning Russell 2000 $IWM https://t.co/buJtj5dl0Y pic.twitter.com/nYYGEFR4hV — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 25, 2024 👆 https://t.co/Q2l9ujkH9C — Gratke Wealth, LLC (@GratkeWealth) August 25, 2024 US #consumers 📉 👀https://t.co/5m70bcS1WE pic.twitter.com/uOIeZFs6MD — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) August 22, 2024 USA #consumer 📉 👀https://t.co/pwFKFvxhNa — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) August …
Financial volatility. Recession conditions. Lower growth and inflation. The rate cuts are still coming. So, that means interest rates around the world are about to go…UP? The fundamentals haven’t changed – the calendar has. AC
by Mike Shedlock I suggest the latter. The market expectation is the former. Let’s discuss the case for a half-point. Image from CME Fedwatch, annotations by Mish. Market Expectation for September There is currently a 43.5 percent chance of a 50 basis point cut in September. The odds were 53.0 percent yesterday and 69.0 percent …
by TonyLiberty Fed chief Powell to set table for September rate cut at Jackson Hole, but jobs data will set the size Oh yay. Only 2.9% higher than the 4.5% increase last year and the 8.8% higher increase the year before and the 3% before. So we are only 21% higher than 4 years ago. …
