Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
This started as U.S. vs Iran… now it’s slowly turning into a U.S. vs China situation, and that’s where things get risky. Follow the oil and it makes sense. China depends on Hormuz for ~40% of its oil and 30% of LNG, so it’s not sitting back. They’ve already sent warships from Djibouti, parked destroyers …
It comes directly from Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in an interview with NBC News. He said: “We are waiting for them.” Iran is ready for a U.S. ground invasion. https://time.com/7382836/iran-us-israel-war-trump-araghchi-ground-invasion-cease-fire/ Araghchi told NBC News that Iran is prepared for a U.S. ground invasion and is expecting it. https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-foreign-minister-interview-rcna261920 🚨PENTAGON SENDING THOUSANDS OF ADDITIONAL MARINES …
👇📌TLDR: For those short on time: * Life insurers hold more junk debt than 2007 subprime bonds * Private credit defaults hit 5.8% as fund values drop * Treasury basis trade leverage reached $1.4 trillion * Hedge fund leverage sits at the highest level ever recorded *… — Sagzee (@IAmSagzee) February 13, 2026 WARNING: SOMETHING …
AI Data Centers are becoming the new Subprime Housing market. Banks are packaging up risky loans and selling them off to other investors. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance Data center debt has exploded due to the AI boom, with $25.4 billion in US secured debt issued in 2025 alone, marking a 112% increase from 2024’s $12 billion. Since …
Truflation has been arguing that inflation is a non-problem and calling for the Fed to cut rates (below). But their latest readings are flashing a yellow to red flag on inflation. August 4th is labeled. It was 1.65%. Today it is 2.31%, a considerable increase of 0.66% in less than a month. And, as the …
Link to article:https://t.co/DaTG9QsIvo — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) August 20, 2025 It's official: The US has now seen 446 LARGE bankruptcy filings in 2025, officially +12% ABOVE pandemic levels in 2020. In July alone, the US saw 71 bankruptcies, marking the highest single-month total since July 2020. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread) pic.twitter.com/xIAbg4v3Lu …
Businesses are eating 64% of tariffs right now. We know that. But according to Goldman, by October this will drop to only 8%, with consumers eating 67%. Nice one in @SamRo's note this morning. pic.twitter.com/vvWgG39mwS — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 17, 2025 Even the goat is bearish 🐐 pic.twitter.com/lIqSb7eHwv — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August …
🇺🇸 SEN. MULLIN: I DON’T BUCKLE UP BECAUSE OF CARJACKING "I'm not joking when I say this. I drive around in Washington, D.C., in my Jeep, and yes, I do drive myself. And I don't buckle up. The reason why I don't buckle up, and people can say whatever they want to, they can… https://t.co/QR7uHm44eC …
Hedge funds are buying more homes and using tricks like seller financing to sell them again. This lets them avoid traditional loans and keep control over the property. They often sell to buyers who can’t qualify for normal mortgages because of bad credit or unstable income. These buyers sign contracts with high interest and big …
Investors channel 2021’s reckless mania again… WSJ article over the weekend saying that profitless junk stocks have been fueling this entire rally since April:https://t.co/SdspyMwcve"Shares of unprofitable companies have outperformed since early April, and investors are now speculating like it’s 2021" One of the stocks… pic.twitter.com/KXAtpep8IN — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 7, 2025 Carvana has pulled off …
Musk-Trump feud sinks company cash plans The 12.5% yield on xAI's $3B Notes signals high risk, down from a $20B cash raise, amid financial strain post-Musk-Trump spat. xAI's $33B X Corp buy (plus $12B debt) & Memphis turbine issues & pressure. No profit, 3-4 mo cash burn suggest market doubt. https://t.co/Ld3I22UuEw — The Coastal Journal …
Funds still underwater after 2016 bets, private equity risk eclipses public markets… – Yale is withdrawing $6 billion from private equity. But according to them, there's nothing to read into that, so they claim. – Private equity continues to underperform publicly listed equities across every major time horizon: one year, three years, five years, …
Surely an industry with over 60% subprime loan stackers can’t go wrong (Source: Jan ’25 CFPB Report) byu/-DeBussy- inwallstreetbets https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-research-reveals-heavy-buy-now-pay-later-use-among-borrowers-with-high-credit-balances-and-multiple-pay-in-four-loans/ CFPB report reveals nearly 2/3 of BNPL borrowers are subprime as Klarna moves to DoorDash h/t -DeBussy-
Brad Lander’s decision to divest from government bonds is both politically motivated and financially reckless. With the state already sinking under massive debt, New Yorkers are facing a retirement nightmare. NYP: NYC Comptroller Brad Lander accused of ‘divesting’ pension funds from Israel It’s a tale of two investment strategies. New York City Comptroller and mayoral …
President Trump made it clear during his presidential campaign that tariffs will be a part of his policy-making. He has followed through on that. But tariffs are very risky business. Yes, you can get lucky with them being a political tool at times. But tariffs can also turn… pic.twitter.com/wcEr7HYHXy — Ron Paul (@RonPaul) February 3, …
History suggests the recent uninversion of the 10y-2y chart portends a recession to begin soon…. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CyYI Rest of world going down fast as we speak. look under your desk. will drag US down. decoupling is fantasy. The government funded distractions always hit when they're about to crash markets — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 2, 2025 Locals …
MSTR’s latest BTC buy shows Saylor’s strategy relies on 2 things: “numbers go up” and exciting the less sophisticated herd. MSTR issued $561mm of stock between Dec 16-22. And bought $561mm of BTC at $106,662 – and he’s already lost 10% on that latest BTC buy over the weekend.… pic.twitter.com/QHdcjlzcW1 — Novacula Occami (@OccamiCrypto) December …
U.S. regulators have approved a nonstop stock exchange to begin operations in the country, which is expected to boost overnight liquidity available to traders. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in Washington on Sept. 18, 2008. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images “24 Exchange announced today that it has received approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission …
Interesting video from The Wall Street Journal on co-branded credit cards. “From Apple and Goldman Sachs to Bilt and Wells Fargo, high-profile credit card partnership missteps reveal how risky these deals between brands and banks can be. Almost 30% of adults own co-branded credit cards as customers can earn different rewards like discounts or free …
A 60-year-old German man has likely been ‘cured’ of HIV, in a medical milestone only achieved by six other people, doctors have announced. The man is believed the have undergone a stem cell transplant, once known as a bone marrow transplant, after he developed leukaemia, a type of blood cancer. Primarily a cancer treatment, stem …
So, pensions some how ended up with alot of the toxic assets… I wondered how that happened 🤔 pic.twitter.com/ASolJRvQmH — Tuggernuts (@Tuggernuts009) June 16, 2024
What is the worst mistake a trader can do? Doubling down on a trade going south What are $JPY carry traders doing? 🙈 Btw I’d love to see those “Mark to Markets” claiming 18% on JPY carry trade in 2023 Narrator: and be guaranteed they aren’t using their own money to do that… https://t.co/HDJbYeaDf7 pic.twitter.com/DSFspryx8n …
And what happens when home values go down? No way to refinance and no way to sell without coming up with tons of cash out of pocket. In the last crash, it took over ten years for home values to recover. pic.twitter.com/f881uraBO0 — Mike Roberts (@MyHECM) May 17, 2024 In a shocking move that could …
TL:DR: Big banks are hiding risky investments off their books, just like they did before the 2008 crash. This could cause another financial crisis. Banks like JPMorgan Chase have trillions of dollars in risky investments they don’t report on their main financial statements. Regulators are worried and want the banks to set aside more money …
Obvious lie. Fauci flip flops during Congress grilling: Ex-White House doctor ducks more than 100 questions about Covid and admits he approved risky Wuhan coronavirus research proposal without reading it House GOP said Fauci’s pandemic policies full of drastic and systemic failures He ‘backtracked’ on past claims his agency never funded gain of function abroad …
The U.S. narrowly avoids recession through exorbitant fiscal spending, raising questions about the sustainability of such measures. The ideological divide on economic policies, particularly Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), sparks debates on the feasibility of high fiscal deficits, leaving a lingering uncertainty about the future of economic stability. Exorbitant fiscal spending is probably the main reason …
A crisis looms over China as alarming signs of economic distress emerge. Despite official claims, the job market’s true fragility is exposed by online listings and household surveys, painting a grimmer picture. Adding to the ominous scenario, China is contemplating unsecured loans for real estate developers, marking an unprecedented move with potentially catastrophic consequences. As …
“It would be a slow, grinding, months-long task to reduce them entirely, and probably the digging will go on as the [Israeli army] tries,” said Richard Outzen, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Turkey and senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a defence policy think tank. While few know the full extent of …
by TonyLiberty Relying 100% on Social Security is very risky. The average monthly Social Security benefit in 2022 is only around $1,800 — This provides an income of $21,600 per year, which is below the federal poverty level. Social Security is facing a long-term funding shortfall, with reserves expected to run out by 2035. Benefits …
