Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
China’s economy is in deep trouble, and it’s hitting even the fancy luxury brands hard. LVMH, the big-name luxury giant, just warned that demand for their high-end stuff is tanking in China. People there aren’t buying the glitzy bags and watches like they used to, consumer… — The American Flea (@TheAmericaFlea) May 22, 2025
Crazy to think that despite the huge divergence between the S&P 500 and gold, their ratio is still back at its 1929 peak levels. pic.twitter.com/J08CsXt7m9 — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 11, 2025
Trump calls off reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Doubles down on tariffs with China, now with a 125% tariff. Continues to impose a 10% tariff on the rest of the world. Despite the pause, the U.S. remains the highest tariff industrialized country. pic.twitter.com/Ue4g1a1gRb — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 9, 2025 cant say earnings don't matter …
by confoundedinterest17 Wow! Gold just had its best quarterly performance since the 1980s! Meanwhile, the volatility of gold ETFs remains subdued.
Interest rate futures now show a base case of Fed rate cuts being paused until June 2025. The decision to pause cuts appears to be largely uncontested by Fed officials. PCE inflation data Friday is huge. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 29, 2025
by confoundedinterest17 One reason that US home prices remain high (and unaffordable for many) is The Federal Reserve (aka, The Green Slime). Former Fed Chair (and Biden’s Treasury Secretary is no Luciana Paluzzi, the Italian beauty from the James Bond film Thunderball. Yellen is just a far-left economic hack. Look at the Case-Shiller national home price index …
Here's one of my objective measures to value #gold; it’s undervalued. Like 1974 & 1980, gold won’t be overvalued until red line crosses blue line, which is presently $10,902 (assumes #CentralBanks have in their vaults the gold they claim to own; so fair value probably higher). pic.twitter.com/1HCgJmL2ni — James Turk (@FGMR) January 14, 2025 Fair …
Supply chain stress is higher right now than it was in the peak in the 2021-2022 reopening bottlenecks. Inflation is not contained. pic.twitter.com/QPFdLwlCMP — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) January 11, 2025 ShadowStats says real inflation is over 10%. Official CPI? Just 2.7%. The truth is in your grocery bill, not the government report. — GoldSilver HQ …
by confoundedinterest17 We are all riders on the Biden housing storm. Existing-home sales have finally started to improve on a seasonally adjusted basis after a three-year decline. Cause? Raging home prices combined with higher than normal mortgage rates. Home prices are up 35.4% under Biden while conforming 30Y mortgage rates are up 148%.
It is the more accurate measure of real inflation Not CPI — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) December 31, 2024 📌 Performance Investors regard gold as both a hedge against inflation and a strategic asset during geopolitical uncertainty, having proven to be the most effective safeguard against major geopolitical events since 1973👉 https://t.co/Lu9xTiGXkK h/t @SoberLook #gold #spx …
https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1873188277186118063 This cop needs to go to jail How you gonna do that to an old man? https://t.co/Jus0njCJdK — Hodgetwins (@hodgetwins) December 29, 2024
AMH owns a rental community by my neighborhood…just googled who owns AMH…this is what came up 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/DhJwvt02wD — SamJ❤️🇺🇸💙 (@SamJuneau) December 11, 2024 Robert F Kennedy Jr. breaks down how BlackRock gets away with lying saying they “don’t purchase single family homes” in America When you get outbid buying a home by an “LLC …
Current #eurozone spread blow-out should not be read through lens of 2012 #eurocrisis. Unlike in 2012, swap spreads of all sovereign bonds (incl. germany) are moving in same direction = rising basis for #eurozone as a whole. This pattern is closer to #GFC style liquidity crisis.… pic.twitter.com/OBsziN45gx — 🏳️🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦 (@PatrickKrizan) December 3, …
Today on @SundayFutures with @MariaBartiromo, guest host @JackieDeAngelis spoke with FCC Commissioner @BrendanCarrFCC about social media censorship. @FoxNews pic.twitter.com/GJFsBKbKiY — SundayMorningFutures (@SundayFutures) December 1, 2024
Wait, this was weeks ago?! Why the media blackout?? Anyways, bizarre gruesome details emerge from 911 call: “In roughly 90 seconds of emergency call recordings released by the Daily Mail on Tuesday, a dispatcher tells peers about a request to respond to a female “locked in an oven in the bakery” at a Halifax, Nova …
by confoundedinterest17 To quote Freddie King, the US is going down. Longer-term inflation jumped to their highest since June 2008, according to the latest UMich Sentiment survey, while short-term inflation expectations dropped to four year lows… Housing sentiment (buying conditions for housing) remains depressed under Biden/Harris “Reign of (economic) error.” Here is a picture depicting the …
NEWS: INFLATION 2.6% CORE 3.3% Inflation is not under control & still running wild through the economy as things like: shelter 🏠is up 5%Transportation 🚗 is up 8% Food 🥖 is up 4% pic.twitter.com/sbL4RhR4Yo — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) November 13, 2024 US Core CPI has been above 3% for 42 straight month, the longest …
A University of Michigan student from China faces criminal charges after allegedly casting a ballot illegally. According to Michigan’s Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit, the non-citizen student registered using his student ID and residency documents, falsely claiming U.S. citizenship to vote in Michigan. His ballot, cast at an early …
DJT is more popular than Kamala Harris. People care more about what Trump has to say than what word Kamala has to say. How are the polls showing the race is a dead heat? Her popularity is entirely manufactured by the media. ‘Call Her Daddy’ is the second most popular podcast in the world. h/t preetshahi
Notice the set-up. One of these two central banks' balance sheets is growing…and it isn't the Fed. The People's Bank of China has increased its balance sheet by $560 billion in four months. That is a 9.4% jump. Feel free to ignore it. pic.twitter.com/3toz8nvh8Z — Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) October 19, 2024
by confoundedinterest17 Perhaps Harris/Walz should adopt the Imperial March from Star Wars as their theme song. Between Biden/Harris uncontrolled immigration disaster helping to destroy New York City, Harris’ statement that she won’t do anything differntly from Biden/Harris is alarming. The NY Empire survey crashed from +11.5 to -11.9 – the lowest since May. That is the biggest MoM drop …
According to a report from Der Spiegel on October 13, 2024, Ukraine is contemplating a shift in its approach to the war with Russia. The government is discussing the possibility of temporarily suspending its objective of fully restoring its territorial integrity, given that over 20% of the country remains under Russian occupation. These deliberations reflect …
AI mentions remains high but dipped lower Goldman pic.twitter.com/HjEpPQUCcw — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 11, 2024 Physics is more fun I guess. Physics is 😎 🆒️ pic.twitter.com/OfGOPBv28o — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 11, 2024
by confoundedinterest17 Communications breakdown! As Harris wordsalads her vision of the economy saying small businesses are the backbone of the US economy, but small businesses aren’t feeling it. Small business optimism remains below 100 at 91.5. Perhaps the themesong of Harris/Walz should be “economy breaker.” Or former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown’s livin’, lovin’ maid.
The Yen Carry Trade Is Not Unwound and Should Concern Everyone "…Knowing what’s left after the summer selloff is a challenge in part because no one is keeping track. There’s no trading floor or regulator. No one publishes a league table. It’s a strategy, not a product, so… https://t.co/EJio9HfFKX pic.twitter.com/dumVOLtQns — kristen shaughnessy (@kshaughnessy2) October …
via Gloom Boom Doom: For the last few months, I have been going after work (that is for me around 3 am in the morning) to a rather unique place in the world, which to my knowledge only exists in Chiang Mai. It is the Muay Thai Loikroh Boxing Stadium, which consist of an elevated boxing …
Telegram billionaire Pavel Durov was apprehended by police as he landed at an airport on a private jet near Paris on Saturday evening amid a probe into the state of organised crime conducted through the messaging programme. The arrest has brought attention to Durov’s vast network of global contacts, including government officials, and the criminal …
The United States manufacturing sector remains in deep contraction when it should be soaring. via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/W3bL4wFEVs — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) August 15, 2024
The rate at which inflation is increasing slowed to 2.9% in July, but it’s still increasing. Here’s inflation under Biden/Harris compared to Trump. This is how working- and middle-class Americans experience inflation & it’s still ugly. pic.twitter.com/cPIf3B26yE — Andy Puzder (@AndyPuzder) August 14, 2024
As of now, there hasn’t been a record number of bankruptcies among companies with assets above $50 million. The Bloomberg Bankruptcy Index, which considers both the size and number of bankruptcies, remains relatively low. This suggests that while smaller companies, particularly in the mortgage and real estate sectors, may be struggling, larger financial institutions have …