“If liquidity goes down at all in 2025, markets will crash.”… “There is one of the greatest global refinancing needs we’ve ever seen (in 2025).”

"If liquidity goes down at all in 2025, markets will crash." "There is one of the greatest global refinancing needs we've ever seen (in 2025)."https://t.co/RhEWHGaktg https://t.co/loBTMTxtqp pic.twitter.com/C6vA0uhbMW — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 16, 2025 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1879829865047949643

A crisis is looming: Small US banks hold over 70% of $2T in CRE loans, exceeding ’06 guidance. With $1.5T CRE refinancing ahead, vacancies high, and prices falling, excessive exposure risks instability.

“JUST IN: Nearly 700 US banks now exceed the 2006 Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loan concentration guidance. What is the CRE loan concentration guidance? It’s guidance by the FDIC for the amount of exposure that small banks should have to …

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10-year yields rise above pre-SVB collapse, highest since 2009. Higher nominal yields impact corporate bonds, increasing refinancing costs. Will we see another blow-up in the next few weeks?

Real yields on 10-year Treasuries closed yesterday at the highest since 2009. pic.twitter.com/Ujfb0Lco7l — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 15, 2023 Nominal yields keep going higher and this affects corporate bonds $LQD, therefore cost of refinancing is increasing. We can expect …

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