Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by John-Wetter-2310 If you’re picturing a bunch of bank executives in capes, cackling maniacally as they raise interest rates, you’re not alone. The incredibly sharp rise in mortgage rates has left prospective buyers shocked. In fact, mortgage demand is at its lowest levels since 1995. Why is this happening? Two main reasons: The Federal …
by Michael If you are going to go out, you might as well do it with a bang. At the beginning of June, our national debt was sitting at $31,467,639,287,894.39. Today, it has risen to $33,442,148,619,617.43. That means that we have added almost two trillion dollars to the national debt in just three months. It is the largest …
by salvia_d We have an amazing local organic ice cream company that we have been going to for years, & the government in Canada is about to kill this small business, & others just like it. They want to control every aspect of the food supply. Here is the news release: https://www.coldcomfort.ca/breaking-news THE BIG MILK POLICE …
Makes sense, with the acceleration in credit card defaults hitting levels higher than even the 2008 Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/AA0i4w9S97 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 12, 2023 BREAKING: Delinquency rates among credit cards issued by smaller banks are the highest on record, per Apollo Group. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 12, 2023 The crashing office market will …
Despite credit rejections rising, debt levels are skyrocketing. Total US household debt just hit a record $17.1 trillion and is expected to rise again this quarter. People are using debt to "fight" inflation. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 11, 2023 At a time when …
While China has been offloading US Treasuries for 10+ years, the rate has accelerated. Both Canada and Mexico also now account for a higher % of US imports than China. It seems like the trade war is back. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. pic.twitter.com/paivr3aYSS — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September …
US records highest credit card debt level at $1.03 trillion, 4.6% increase from Q2, with 20.63% interest rate, 47% cardholders carry monthly balances, and $7,227 average debt, with Connecticut and New York having the highest. ✅ US credit card debt surpassed the one trillion dollar mark and is now at the highest level ever recorded …
Link to story : https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna99327 About 49,500 people took their own lives last year in the U.S., the highest number ever, according to new government data posted Thursday. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which posted the numbers, has not yet calculated a suicide rate for the year, but available data suggests suicides are …
by Michael It is just one thing after another. When times were normal in this country, there would be a major disaster every once in a while, but now we have reached a stage where there is literally no pause between them. Authorities are still trying to assess the damage from the historic wildfires that …
Philly Fed manufacturing index below -25 has a 100% hit rate in leading to recessions since the 1970s We’ve already hit levels as deep as -31.3 this cycle pic.twitter.com/b0oZkiqicM — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 BREAKING: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes in below expectations Expected = -10.1 Actual = -13.5 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) …
Consumers face challenges. If banks borrow short and lend long, then a large % of their payments dries up, how do they pay back their lenders in full? (they don't) That eventuality is only growing larger: pic.twitter.com/N96oHRwUBG — Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) July 13, 2023 University of Michigan consumer sentiment is levels last seen during: – …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/distressed-firms-and-the-large-effects-of-monetary-policy-tightenings-20230623.html TLDRS: Since March 2022, U.S. monetary policy has become tighter. More businesses are financially distressed now than in previous instances of tightening since the ’70s. Studies suggest that these conditions could lead to significant declines in investment and jobs in the near future. The theory is that when monetary policy gets tougher, …
In this era, market manipulation via the options market has reached unprecedented extremes: Today is quarterly opex. pic.twitter.com/XZJdj9ChtF — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 16, 2023 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1669638387911860226 BREAKING: Harvey Jones, who has been on the Nvidia, $NVDA, board since 1993, has sold nearly 120,000 shares this week, worth $48.3 million. He has sold more than $76 million …
by confoundedinterest17 61% of Bloomberg terminal respondents (including me, by the way) see Fed hikes leading to recession. Bond traders are stepping up wagers that the Federal Reserve will steer the US economy into a recession. Policy-sensitive front-end Treasuries led a selloff Thursday, while longer-date bonds lagged, a day after Fed officials indicated that they’re prepared to …
Last time this level was reached FANNIE and FREDDIE were blowing up, what about today? 🥲 — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) June 9, 2023
Call volume in $SPX continues to surge to new all-time highs Recently rising to $700B in a single day of notional value exchanged on the call side pic.twitter.com/71H6dvYdqs — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) June 6, 2023 The short vol trade (long $SVXY here) has had a nice run and is extended (outside 3 ATR Keltner …
