Consumer pessimism at current levels last showed up during recessions like 2008 and the early 1980s. The gap between sentiment and economic data also looks like a typical pre-recession signal.

American consumers have NEVER been this pessimistic about the economy: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 49.8 in April, the lowest reading EVER in over 70 years of polling, with declines occurring across all income levels, ages, and political affiliations. This comes as gasoline prices posted the largest monthly jump in pump …

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The Fed just admitted the job market won’t recover for years. They now expect higher unemployment through 2027. Fed model divergence flashes pre-recession warning, chart mirrors 1989, 2001, 2008 before hard pivots

Kinda puts this into a different perspective now huh? Same thing with me talking about $UNF and $MAN. All kind of adds up. pic.twitter.com/PJuiYoEVOt — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) June 18, 2025 This chart is a clear warning shot to those still clinging to the idea of a “soft landing.” Every time the modeled Fed Funds …

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