Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Median family income in the US increased from $10,000 in 1971 to $106,000 today, a 10x increase. However, the median cost of homes increased from $25,000 to $445,000, a 17x increase. And the median cost of cars increased from $3,600 to $50,000, a 14x increase. The median cost of college increased from $2,900 a year …
They’re LYING to you, rate cuts are actually BAD… Well, in the short term they are. The biggest crashes in history didn’t happen before the Fed pivot. They happened after it. 1970s? Fed cuts → stocks nuked. 2000 dot-com? Fed cuts → -51%. 2008? Fed cuts → -58%. Even the early 2020s saw the same …
Authored by Lau Vegys via InternationalMan.com, Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, recently gave the clearest signal yet that the Federal Reserve’s so-called “quantitative tightening” is about to end. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia recently, Powell said: “Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat …
New Generation Of Industries Emerges In Texas As Rare Earths Race Ignites https://t.co/smU839P6Om — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 21, 2025 Major oil companies are drilling in East Texas again, but not for oil. This time, they’re after lithium for batteries and other rare elements. Chevron and Halliburton announced East Texas projects this summer. Exxon has acreage …
$NFLX needs to pivot fast on this one. Why any company takes any political risk with content defies belief. You can’t win. 50% of the country will hate your beliefs and ban you no matter what you say politically. https://t.co/tEOKGpU0u3 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 2, 2025 Netflix 40% drop coming. pic.twitter.com/7WNovr0QMg — The Great …
Cold beer on a Friday night? Maybe non-alcoholic. Only 54% of drinking-age Americans consume alcohol today, according to a recent poll from Gallup, the lowest proportion since the survey began in 1939. Even those who do drink are partaking less, by a factor of nearly half. The US is drinking less, and cultural connotations around alcohol …
The Defense Department is quietly reshaping its AI strategy. Behind the scenes, officials are testing new systems to reduce reliance on outside vendors like Palantir Technologies. The shift comes despite Palantir’s recent $795 million contract boost for its Maven Smart System, which now totals $1.3 billion through 2029. That expansion was approved in May 2025, …
What’s going on here is likely a sign of rising global stress. The sharp drop in the 10 year Treasury yield alongside a spike in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) points to a flight to safety and a scramble for dollar liquidity. Normally, falling yields would weaken the dollar but when both move in opposite …
$DJT is down 10% on news it will raise $2.5 billion to buy Bitcoin. Maybe the markets don't have the appetite for yet another Bitcoin treasury company. Also, how can Trump's company front-run the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, using taxpayers' dollars to pump up what he bought first? — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 27, 2025 Trump …
The market no longer believes the Fed: Since the "Fed pivot" began in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have more than DOUBLED. In fact, markets now see +3.3% inflation over the next 2 years, the highest since March 2023. Has the Fed lost its credibility? https://t.co/cNVD32IqbR pic.twitter.com/KWjK2LekQM — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 29, 2025
For years, tech has felt like the safest bet, the untouchable giant. But maybe the real opportunity is in the places most are too cautious to explore. Over the past decade, the fund has maintained an average annual return close to its long-term target of 4%. However, Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, …
https://finviz.com/ It's begun .. pic.twitter.com/LPPK8arfBz — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 18, 2024 I cannot wait to see this pig in an actual recession pic.twitter.com/0PeFOiX8GA — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) December 18, 2024 As we said in May 2024 when this clip was taken, this is the 2024 version of "inflation is transitory.” Fed Chair Powell …
BY DAVID HAGGITH The numbers may be fake, but they have plunged a dagger into the back of the Powell pivot fantasy Photo by Reza Hasannia on Unsplash A scorching-hot jobs report finally woke up a few bond vigilantes today to recognize they have priced bonds on the wrong side of history. With so many jobs supposedly added to the …
BREAKING: December CPI inflation rate RISES to 3.4%, above expectations of 3.2%. Core CPI inflation fell to 3.9%, above expectations of 3.8%. This is the 33rd consecutive month with inflation above 3% and first jump since September. Can the Fed really pivot right now? — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 11, 2024 Breaking down the …
BY DAVID HAGGITH The maniacs got their heads chopped off this week. Ah for yesteryear when the Fed and Treasury were both certain inflation was merely “transitory.” Today, what became more transitory was the fantasy that the Fed is about to pivot on high interest because its fight with inflation is nearly over. One reason …
BY DAVID HAGGITH Photo by Torsten Dederichs on Unsplash It is funny how Zero Hedge admitted it was wrong. They did it by admitting everyone else was wrong who got tied up in the latest mess of pivot mania without mentioning that they were caught up in it themselves. In fact, they were practically championing the mania, rather than criticizing it as …
Public domain photo courtesy of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System From Peter Reagan at Birch Gold Group For the last two years, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been maintaining a moderate stance on raising rates to combat a historic wave of red-hot inflation. (Although initially, the Fed didn’t start raising rates fast enough). But something has …
Interest rate futures indicate expected rate cuts from March 2024, with a growing chance of cuts starting in January. Three weeks ago, markets anticipated an additional rate hike and cuts in June 2024; now, there’s a 2% chance of an extra hike and five expected rate cuts in 2024. Despite these market shifts, Fed Chair …
by Michael During the summer, many of the experts repeatedly assured us that the U.S. economy would be able to avoid a recession, but now reality is setting in. Credit conditions continue to tighten, home sales are falling, credit card losses are exploding, stores are closing all over the country, and the number of bankruptcies …
by Ainslie_Bullion Short squeeze in Bond market imminent A short squeeze has been touted in the bond and treasury market for the last 5 months since 1.2 million was reached on the US 10 Year, with hedge funds continuing their bearish bets. The positioning has in fact grown to a record short position. Short positions …