Moody’s recession model hits 49%, the last time it sat this high outside of an actual recession was September 2007. The Fed’s worst nightmare is getting worse. System looks stable until it doesn’t, 2008 veteran warns blind spots can hide the next crisis

BREAKING: A recession model that has predicted every single US downturn in 80 years just hit 49%. The threshold is 50%. Every time it has crossed that line, a recession followed within 12 months. No exceptions. And the data behind …

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US labor nightmare: Hiring is at its lowest level since 2009, inflation refuses to budge and credit card delinquencies are also at GFC levels

Lowest hiring since 2009.Payroll growth has slowed to <0.1% MoM.Openings down 25% YoY.Wage growth still sticky at 3.8%. It’s the worst mix possible — weak labor, stubborn inflation. — Shashank Sindhe (@shashank_sindhe) October 13, 2025 WTF! Hiring just hit the …

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