Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The feds have criminalized political speech in order to lock up Trump supporters. ETA sentencing: Defendant Attempted to Trick Voters Into Believing They Could Vote By Text Message Douglass Mackey, was sentenced today by United States District Judge Ann M. Donnelly to 7 months in prison for his role in a conspiracy to interfere with …
from Joseph Brown: The Reverse Repo facility has seen $1 trillion drain out in just the last 6 months What happens when it runs out? Its important to remember what this account is for, and where this money came from in the first place 🧵👇🏼 When all the money printing started in 2020, this account …
The US National Debt has now increased by over $2 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended just 4 months ago. pic.twitter.com/lWiHaYW7Ht — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 5, 2023 2 days ago, the US added $275 billion in 1 day due to social security payments at the end of the fiscal year. Since the debt …
Despite the September ECB hike and warnings by President Lagarde that inflation is still much too high, the market has increasingly turned its focus to the economy, succumbing to the idea that the European economy may already have entered a recession. Nowhere better is that view being reflected in the euro, which has given up …
This liquidity strain might prompt banks to tighten lending, potentially making it more challenging for individuals and businesses to access credit. A record $870 billion of deposits have left banks over the last 18 months. This is the highest deposit flight since The Great Depression. The UAW strike, student loan payments & government employees furloughed …
With the median mortgage payment exceeding the cost of rent by $1,000 per month and average new car payments and used car loan interest rates reaching new highs, households are feeling the strain of increasing expenses. The milestone of $1 trillion in credit card debt, coupled with record-high interest rates of 25%, underscores the growing …
Since the creation of the Fed in 1913, US federal debt has on average doubled every 8-9 years. By 2036 US debt could be approximately 100T. If we make it that far lol. How do we get out of this financial mess? Neither party in DC seems able or willing to actually cut… pic.twitter.com/3evQTQdijo — …
Former President Jimmy Carter and his wife, Rosalynn Carter, made a surprise appearance in their Georgia hometown on Saturday — having largely retreated from the spotlight amid health challenges. The Carters went to the Plains Peanut Festival in what seems to have been their first outing since the announcement seven months ago that Jimmy Carter …
The U.S. government has rapidly amassed a trillion dollars in debt in three months, a significant departure from the almost 200 years it took to reach the initial trillion. It took the U.S. federal government almost 200 years to rack up $1 Trillion in debt. The latest trillion to be added took a mere 3 …
by SilbergleitJunior Hedge Funds Versus Asset Managers… If Hedge Funds Are Right We Are Screwed S&P 500 has entered its weakest 10-day period of the year – BofA By Investing.com
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics, the economic gift to big donors and a boot up the backside of middle class and low wage workers, keeps on giving. Now its homebuilder sentiment falling to 45. U.S. homebuilders are feeling pessimistic about their business for the first time in seven months, thanks to stubbornly high mortgage rates. Builder confidence in …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4&output_view=pct_1mth The Acceleration of Inflation in the Second Half Has Begun, “Disinflation” Honeymoon Terminated The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 0.63% in August from July, the biggest month-to-month increase since June 2022. Annualized, this amounts to a red-hot 7.8%. This jump comes despite the still ongoing ridiculous monthly adjustment to the health …
by TonyLiberty 50%-off summer-end sale before the market’s bottom falls off. If you remove the liquidity punchbowl, you will find more housing inventory hiding in plain sight. https://t.co/eKPhzD4nrL — Aaron Layman (@dfwaaronlayman) September 14, 2023
via mises: The Federal Reserve has officially reported a loss of $57 billion for the first six months of 2023. Quite a number! So the “Federal Reserve Banks Combined Quarterly Financial Report as of June 30, 2023” (CQFR)—a little-known document—is especially notable for its red ink. We can anticipate an annual loss of over $100 billion for …
Over 400 Athletes DEAD from Cardiac Events in a matter of months. The post 💉era will be catastrophic. pic.twitter.com/gx6l0YXbb5 — Died Suddenly (@DiedSuddenly_) September 8, 2023 h/t A Deplorable Neanderthal
via Mike Shedlock: If the Fed is taking economic clues from the Services ISM or from energy, it’s not done hiking. Manufacturing is a different story. ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM® Please consider the August 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® emphasis mine. Economic activity in the services sector …
https://t.co/HuFqOgfd2e — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 7, 2023
U.S. jobless claims fall to 216,000, lowest level since February (Bloomberg) — Applications for US unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since February, underscoring businesses’ reluctance to let go of workers. Initial unemployment claims decreased by 13,000 to 216,000 in the week ended Sept. 2, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The figure was lower …
JPMORGAN: “.. there is now a higher likelihood of a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months, the severity of which could be higher than [markets] anticipate. Risks of an interest rate shock .. are clear: consumer credit .. funding of startups .. impact on employment ..” [Kolanovic] pic.twitter.com/PvXkzsZA2Z — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September …
Ukraine has suffered heavy losses during three months of its summer counteroffensive against Russia but has failed to achieve its goals at any part of the front line, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has reported. Kiev’s forces have lost more than 66,000 troops and over 7,600 heavy weapons since launching their push in early June, …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g20/current/g20.pdf In June 2023, the total outstanding amount owed was approximately $1,850.9 billion dollars–up 14.7% from May! In the first quarter, the interest rate for new car loans was 6.4% with a maturity of 66 months financing $39,066. For used cars, 15.7% with 66 months financing at $23,537. Wut Mean?: Folks and businesses are …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Wut mean?: On the flipside, this means 66.1% of retail investors and 56.03% of institutional investors believe the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S., like that of October 28, 1929 or October 19, 1987, in the next six months is above 10%.
1970s inflation vs 2020s inflation: When you compare the inflation rates from 1972-1976, it’s almost identical to today. However, 2 years later we saw inflation spike to 11%. The peak inflation rate in the 1970s aligns perfectly with the 2022 peak. Are we about to see another… pic.twitter.com/SXwTUEdhh2 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 24, …
The CEO of NVIDIA Jensen Huang's net worth is now +$39 billion. A 225% increase in 8 months. That's likely the fastest growth rate for any billionaire in the world this year. pic.twitter.com/DSihKHFnIB — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 23, 2023
by DesmondMilesDant Only a few months left before this thing blows up. This chart shows the total loan assets funded by FHLB at $348,731,000. This is in contrast to Schwab’s current available assets at $325,993,000. To put context to how critical the situation is for Schwab, the only bank overextended to this degree was …
by ihasanemail [So I’m a Mandarin-speaking Asian dude from Texas. This is all anecdotal, so this is only my first-hand observations. Feelings are useless in trading. You a moron if you trade off a story versus hard facts.] I was in Beijing for a wedding, then was a tourist through Chengdu and Harbin and various villages …
Sometimes – you don't have to be great – you just gotta be average… pic.twitter.com/H2vpjXzWZJ — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 15, 2023 Biden called and he wants his 1980 Senate seat back pic.twitter.com/cbPod1B6ip — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 15, 2023 Nice chart Eric👍 Also, employment growth is always positive in the first 8 months of …
Bankruptcies by sector are even more concerning Consumer discretionary leads with 48 bankruptcies, a sign that consumers are feeling the pain. Industrials is next, at 46, another sign of pain from higher rates. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. pic.twitter.com/zBQBeElwpK — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 15, 2023
In 2008 the soft landing dream was alive through the end of August, 9 months into the recession.https://t.co/SkNWeYEFFu — Eventually Consistent Capital (@EventuallyCC) August 8, 2023 “Soft landing” news on @business is now higher than in 2000 and 2007. #macro https://t.co/4hl26TWkMQ pic.twitter.com/j329uSp4ch — Kantro (@MichaelKantro) August 8, 2023 Demand for bank loans in the corporate …
Brampton real estate market declines 51% in just 2 months. Spring real estate market has come and gone in Brampton. Home sales less than 400 in July (that includes homes and condos in all of Brampton). Prices have also started to drop. Detached homes in Brampton have dropped over $80,000 in average in just 2 …