Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
As Retail Awakens to Inflation, Bond Yields Have More to Go US yields are set to rise due to retail investors hedging against inflation. Bond rallies will be short-lived with a downward trend for Treasuries. After experiencing steady inflation for years, both professional and retail investors are adjusting to the new inflationary reality. With inflation …
Great chart, Stephane!!! Liquidity squeeze in most important financial asset – US Treasuries – worsens. A major market accident becomes more and more likely – watch the Repo market!!! https://t.co/sC7am5uzdZ — 🏳️🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦 (@PatrickKrizan) October 23, 2023 If you're going to cause a crisis, now is the time to do it. https://t.co/hWhNv3iVMI — …
China is trying to keep kicking the can down the road, but their collapsing property market, and their dropping exports due to recession, is going to put their economy in a pullback that will take years to recover from. Corporations are also pulling out of China which is reducing foreign investment, income and jobs. CCP …
Yes sir we are https://t.co/SioCV8HIqX — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) October 1, 2023 Is another U.S. credit downgrade coming, followed closely by this? 👇🤫 https://t.co/jOp80yIEUn — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 1, 2023 They don't just hike to 5.5% and then the system collapses in the next trading session. It takes a while for the "deflationary smack" to …
Sounds right until it isn't! Problem is that the faster bonds sell off the greater collateral hit and impairment to Global #liquidity https://t.co/6GW0EYopoj — CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes (@crossbordercap) September 26, 2023 #recession … #StockMarket Bubble edition#Leverage 📉 #MarginCall 📈 https://t.co/nig1oqQvQ8 pic.twitter.com/FmkeTm30lS — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) September 26, 2023 #recession … Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition$DXY …
by Chris Black Investors take for granted that securities dealers will exchange cash for financial assets on demand, but that expectation can only be met in benign conditions. The on-going deluge of debt securities impacts interest rates, but also makes liquidity relatively scarce as private sector buying power is limited while debt issuance is, at …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program hit a NEW all time high–the 15th consecutive week above $100 billion! What we are reviewing: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed light on the recent uptick in borrowing due to an attempt to offset the initial …
BREAKING: Truist plans ‘sizable’ layoffs; target of cuts uncertain https://t.co/S94qKp2qzt — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 11, 2023 Banks in the US just saw their biggest weekly deposit outflows since the collapse of SVB. Total bank deposits (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) plunged by $70 billion last week alone. This puts bank deposits at their lowest levels since …
Banks are tightening lending standards consistent with levels that have ALWAYS led to a recession Buckle up pic.twitter.com/OjXqe4OpZN — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 4, 2023 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1698498854453227530 The current yield curve inversion is at the same level as 1928. Let that sink in. pic.twitter.com/zEEaqCMETP — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 4, 2023
Kevin O’Leary warns chaos is about to begin for US economy: ‘Wake up and smell the roses’ “We have a crisis emerging. … I’m talking about companies with five to 500 employees, which represent over 60% of our economy,” O’Leary said. “If you’re in the S&P 500, you have no trouble financing your business. You …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program hit a NEW all time high–the 13th consecutive week above $100 billion! What we are monitoring: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed light on the recent uptick in borrowing due to an attempt to offset the initial …
via CNN: Hong Kong/London CNN — Country Garden warned Wednesday that it could default on its vast debts as it reported a loss of 51.5 billion yuan ($7 billion) for the first six months of the year. The company, which was China’s largest residential developer last year, said it had been caught off guard by …
Treasury Yields Reach Highest Since 2007 Amid Elevated Rate Fears: Rising Real Yields Reflect Firmer Economy and Higher Deficits; 10-Year Yield Surpasses 4.34%, Marking Highest Level Since Financial Crisis The US bond-market selloff resumed Monday, driving 10-year yields to a 16-year high, as the persistently resilient economy has investors positioning for interest rates to remain …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program hit a NEW all time high–the 11th consecutive week above $100 billion! What we are monitoring: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed light on the recent uptick in borrowing due to an attempt to offset the initial …
by DesmondMilesDant Goldman Sachs Blames Zero-Day Options for Fueling S&P 500 Selloff Options speculation was the reason the market got run up in the first place, not sure why they are surprised when it also drives it down. FINRA ‘discipline’ Alert! Between July 2018 & September 2021, Goldman Sachs failed to report, or inaccurately reported, …
The bearish curve steepening we feared is fast becoming reality. The impact on risk assets occurs less through the textbook arbitrage channel and more via negative effect on collateral and hence on #liquidity @au_shareplicity @johnauthers https://t.co/VuMvsqnJQ4 — CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes (@crossbordercap) August 14, 2023 It's not the height of rates that destroys the economy but …
Assets in money market funds have hit a record $5.5 trillion. With yields above 5%, this trend should continue. pic.twitter.com/gpRrtgBjoL — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 3, 2023 Bear Stearns Collapse March 16, 2008Lehman Brothers Collapse September 15, 2008 Silicon Valley Bank Collapse March 10, 2023******************* Collapse September 15, 2023 🤫pic.twitter.com/kfdPWKxt1dhttps://t.co/qBMYgTkITR https://t.co/VqtC8XyGSu — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Table 1 (PDF) | Table 2 (PDF) | Charts (PDF) Wut Mean?: Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Lending: Banks tightened standards for C&I loans to businesses of all sizes. All loan terms for C&I loans, like rate spreads, premiums on riskier loans, credit line costs, and many others, were tightened. Both large and other banks tightened C&I lending …
Bank of England set to incur £150bn loss from bond sales after interest rate rises Higher interest rates will force the Bank of England to make a loss of £150bn from the sale of bonds bought to shore up the UK’s financial system over the last 14 years – an increase from a £100bn deficit projected in …
by WarrenBuffe Community Banks to Face Margin and Earnings Pressures in 2023 – Rising Rates and Liquidity Crunch Shift the Landscape for US Banks https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/community-banks-margins-earnings-squeezed-by-liquidity-crunch https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/liquidity-pressures-put-funding-in-the-crosshairs-at-community-banks
M2 deepest declineEVER pic.twitter.com/8xwBf4NZQN — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 17, 2023 This is fine.
by Tom McClellan Later this year, there is going to be a big liquidity problem hitting the financial markets. And if you can believe the legacy media, it is all due to climate change, since these days they think that any weather phenomenon is proof of climate change. And our story starts out in California. …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program is on the increase again! What we are monitoring: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed light on the recent uptick in borrowing due to an attempt to offset the initial shrink in M2 and dip in deposits. …
With the YTD rally, the $SPX has decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time since pre-2020. pic.twitter.com/bVzH3QxeuN — David Marlin (@Marlin_Capital) July 19, 2023 Bulls think it's March 2020 all over again. The shock will be extreme. pic.twitter.com/MoYrThQTb6 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 19, 2023 "Load up" pic.twitter.com/usGHEu6hKJ — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 19, …
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! The global credit correction has arrived. Or as Bill Paxton said in Twister, “It’s already here!” The question is, how far into the economy will it extend? US Gross Domestic Income YoY is still growing strong at 4.5%, but shrinking really fast as Fed monetary stimulypto wears off. S&P Global Ratings’ Credit Cycle …
That's the week. We have now entered the pre-FOMC silent period. 96% probability of July rate hike. Peak earnings. Lowest liquidity period of the entire year. Nothing can go wrong now. pic.twitter.com/TEXdXB3q2w — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 14, 2023 Anyone who buys this chasmic gap between the wealthy and everyone else deserves what's coming. This impending …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program is back on the increase! What we are monitoring: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed light on the recent uptick in borrowing due to an attempt to offset the initial shrink in M2 and dip in deposits. …
