Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Employee wellness consultant GoodShape reports a faster increase in days lost per employee for 21-25-year-olds between 2019 and 2022, with early 20s missing about eight work days annually. Gen Z workers face challenges due to a weakening economy, soaring rents, and high borrowing costs. Days lost per employee increased at a faster clip for 21 …
American workers facing financial hardships are increasingly tapping into their retirement accounts, with hardship withdrawals surging by 30% last year. As a result, one in six workers now has an outstanding loan on their retirement, significantly impacting average 401k balances and raising questions about the sustainability of consumer borrowing, especially as “Buy Now Pay Later” …
via phys.org: A behavioral economist at the University of Bath in the U.K. has found evidence linking higher levels of unwarranted financial optimism with lower levels of cognitive ability. In his study, published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Chris Dawson surveyed thousands of people in the U.K. about their economic outlook and compared their responses …
Safety Shot Inc. is introducing a groundbreaking beverage to swiftly squash a buzz. The “Safety Shot” is crafted to accelerate alcohol detox and promptly plummet blood alcohol content (BAC) in record time. The company says the beverage, created by industry experts and patented, is slated for a direct-to-consumer launch in December 2023. According to Safety …
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. h/t ChampionshipUsed9855
German PPI is contracting at recessionary levels… pic.twitter.com/gzdKkB17od — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) November 20, 2023 🇩🇪 Germany weighs suspending 'inflexible' debt brake as coalition cracks show German Economy Minister Robert Habeck on Monday criticised sticking to what he called the country's "inflexible" debt brake and took a swipe at Finance Minister Christian Lindner on prospective …
by theSilverVigilante As of September 30, 2023, the federal “debt held by the public” (herein, “debt”) stood at $26.3 trillion, or about 98 percent of projected GDP. The “public debt outstanding” of $33.2 trillion often cited in media is largely misleading and not relevant for assessing economic impact; about $6.8 trillion of that amount is …
The convergence of contracting manufacturing, a downward trend in Goldman’s Capex tracker, and business inventory nearing contraction levels raises ominous parallels with past economic downturns. This alarming pattern, witnessed during the Dot Com bubble, the Financial Crisis, and the Pandemic, underscores potential challenges ahead for the economy. Manufacturing pic.twitter.com/7NYfAV8mVk — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) November …
There are now almost two dozen children with reported adverse effects linked to applesauce pouches that have high levels of lead. The 22 children impacted live across 14 states, with the state of residence for one of them being unknown. There are recalls for four products related to the illnesses: Recalled WanaBana apple cinnamon fruit …
https://www.ft.com/content/4ec10c1b-a365-483f-8566-e2ff47435dd5?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev “Conglomerate offloads more than $5bn worth of US and international shares” “The company sold more than $5bn worth of US and foreign stocks in the third quarter, according to results released on Saturday. The sales lifted Berkshire’s divestments of listed shares to nearly $40bn over the past year.” h/t WildcatBlue
by j_stars Is this why the treasury had to borrow 782 bill from the fed this quarter and the next because nobody is showing up for the bond auctions?
Nearly 50% of American parents say they’d prefer their kids not enroll in a 4-ear college, per WSJ. Read more: https://t.co/8bDNxah8l6 — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 29, 2023
Even with $9t in stimulus, MASSIVE welfare programs for homeowners to avoid foreclosure, 3 years of not having to pay any bills (including your mortgage) Foreclosures have already returned to 2005 levels. Terrifying pic.twitter.com/8ggF7WShPG — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 19, 2023
Reuters (via MSN) NEW YORK (Reuters) -Consumer Reports said on Wednesday it had found “concerning” levels of lead and cadmium in a third of various chocolate products it tested recently, and called on Hershey to reduce the amounts of heavy metals in its chocolate. The non-profit consumer group said 16 of the 48 products from …
Global Supply Chains continue to function well and are no longer a valid excuse justifying above-average inflation. pic.twitter.com/Tt2AT8AxG6 — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 24, 2023
by confoundedinterest17 Back in red? As US fiscal policy deteriorates further thanks to endless Federal spending (not to mention seemingly endless wars under Biden and Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama), we are seeing pain in the bank lending business. Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan lending standards is tightening (blue line) to levels typically seen in recessions. …
It seems likes short term bond are being oversold, maybe in favor for longer ones since a recession might trigger Fed rates to drop, causing a consistent increase in value for longer durations. Of course this might not happen or I might just be wrong, so take it with a grain of salt. h/t …
Cities like Phoenix on the brink of recording all-time high eviction numbers, as a growing number of apartments resort to desperate measures, including offering three months of free rent, amidst an unprecedented construction boom. The housing rental market is absolutely FUCKED. We've been reporting cracks in vacancy rates for over 6 months. Its ugly, we're …
With burgeoning credit card debt, soaring interest payments, and rates not seen since the Financial Crisis, a breaking point looms closer. The consumer is on thin ice as US personal savings rate has collapsed This indicator has dropped from record highs in 2020 to levels last seen during the Financial Crisis To make things worse, …
As Americans grapple with average monthly payments of $500 for student loans and $740 for new cars, resulting in the average American spending a staggering $1,240 each month just to finance a car and manage student debt, with delinquency rates expected to keep climbing. Meanwhile, the median homebuyer is spending $2,900 on monthly home payments. …
Gold to hit record levels in 6 different major currencies. EuroBritish PoundChinese YuanAustralian DollarsJapanese YenKorean Won The US dollar is the next one in line. pic.twitter.com/Ili2oKEBxd — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 19, 2023 Gold is starting to sniff that some sort of yield curve control measure is inevitable. The government can't keep exponentially worsening …
The Nasdaq’s return compared to US Treasuries is now at a record high, surpassing levels seen during previous bubbles and indicating a significant gap between equity and bond returns. So many unsustainable metrics out there right now. This also underscores the significant outperformance of the S&P 7 to the remainder of the index. Markets are …
Corporate bankruptcies in 2023 are now at the same levels seen during the 2020 pandemic. We are also seeing the highest number of bankruptcies since 2010. Needless to say, many companies are feeling the pain. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 16, 2023 via dailymail: …
by TonyLiberty Mortgage demand drops to the lowest levels since 1996 as interest rates hit 8%. Mortgage applications for home purchases are down 22% compared to a year ago. Rising rates are pushing more potential homebuyers out of the market but the Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising interest rates to fight inflation. …
Delinquency rates on credit card loans and auto loans are rising. But delinquency rates on mortgages as near all time lower. Why? Because so many mortgages are locked-in to low rates. Truly a unique time. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 11, 2023
From a government spending perspective, the increasing tensions between Israel and Hamas arguably carry an even greater significance. Unlike the Russia-Ukraine war, the recent conflict will likely receive bipartisan support for additional military aid due to Israel's strong… pic.twitter.com/gbvZW5MqKq — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 9, 2023 Winners: Weapon-makers: Lockheed Martin (LMT) gains +8.93% General …
The 10-year note yield is skyrocketing and now at 4.63%, its highest since June 2007. Since last week’s Fed meeting, the 10-year note yield is up 35 basis points. Since the last Fed rate hike in July, the 10-year note yield is up 60 basis points. Interest rates on just about… pic.twitter.com/7bsPQk30ma — The Kobeissi …
Zerohedge sees a bounce any time:https://t.co/o2rER2lXOH What they don't realize is that today the stock / bond ratio reached a new all time extreme. Never a worse time to own stocks. pic.twitter.com/cajdfONS0y — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) September 25, 2023 The only consistently reliable BOTTOM indicator for the past several years has been the put/call ratio. There …
via foxbusiness: Pharmacy giant Rite Aid is negotiating terms of a bankruptcy plan that could see a significant number of its more than 2,100 drugstores permanently close, according to a report. People familiar with the company’s talks with creditors told the Wall Street Journal that Rite Aid has proposed to close as many as 500 …
by AC I predict that by the end of January 2024, after retail sales from holiday spending posts lethargic consumer spending, companies will begin slashing millions of jobs causing wide-spread mortgage defaults. REO and foreclosures will flood the real estate market as real estate investors rush to liquidate their inventories forcing listing prices way down, …