Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 Can we ask the US House and Senate if they will ever return US Federal government spending to pre-Covid levels? Both US Federal government spending and public debt are up 56% since the Covid outbreak in 2020. The answer is no. Politicians thrive on Federal spending.
Lowest hiring since 2009.Payroll growth has slowed to <0.1% MoM.Openings down 25% YoY.Wage growth still sticky at 3.8%. It’s the worst mix possible — weak labor, stubborn inflation. — Shashank Sindhe (@shashank_sindhe) October 13, 2025 WTF! Hiring just hit the lowest level since 2009. Only 204,939 hires so far in 2025.That’s a 58% collapse YoY.Worse …
A powerful blast ripped through a military explosives manufacturing plant in rural Tennessee on Friday morning, rattling homes miles away and bringing emergency responders to the scene, authorities and residents said. The explosion happened at Accurate Energetic Systems near the town of Bucksnort, about 60 miles (97 kilometers) southwest of Nashville, the Hickman County Sheriff’s …
🚨US layoffs are running at RECESSION levels: US-based employers have announced 946,426 job cuts year-to-date, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. This is the second-largest total since the Great Financial Crisis. Over the last 36 years, only 4 years have seen higher layoffs. US… pic.twitter.com/SRbFzvWzjP — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) October 5, 2025 Employers across …
The FOMO lemmings drove up prices for everyone, pricing out the prudent & financially responsible from decent housing. Let them be a cautionary tale for a generation as far as I’m concerned. h/t Boo_Randy_II
The Chief of Staff of the French Army stated forces must be ready as early as tonight for high intensity warfare. Wow. — WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) October 1, 2025 The French military have boarded the Russian shadow fleet tanker Boracay. The vessel is suspected to have been involved in hostile actions towards French Security. pic.twitter.com/Gl0ZQt33EL — …
Behind the headlines about GDP growth and “resilient consumers” is a generation that cannot afford rent, cannot buy homes, and cannot build independent lives. Wages are stuck while housing costs have exploded, so millions are forced back into childhood bedrooms even as politicians brag about the economy. President Trump is delivering a Golden Age economy. …
The Fed is quietly walking a knife’s edge and everyone will feel it soon. Quantitative tightening emptied the ON RRP cushion, leaving banks exposed the same way they were in 2019, and that means every Treasury move now hits reserves directly. Marginal dollars will bounce between TGA and reserves with almost no buffer, creating shocks …
This is a shocking chart. It’s foreign owned U.S. Treasuries held by the Federal Reserve. Every drop has been a liquidity crisis. When foreign governments or banks need Dollars the Treasuries exit. It’s now lower than the depths of the 2020 crash. Remember: the Fed has only one “tool” in its “tool chest”: Money Printer …
The wave is rising. Quietly. Relentlessly. California isn’t screaming about it yet. The hospitals aren’t overflowing. Not yet. But the signals are screaming. Wastewater is saturated. Emergency rooms are ticking upward. The machinery of public health is pivoting back to pandemic posture. No press conference. No alarm bells. Just masks. Quietly reappearing. “California currently has …
So we’re near GFC on 90 day delinquencies on almost everything. The credit card and student debt are the most concerning. The mortgage numbers are fake due to loan modifications. It’s fraud basically. If the mortgage delinquencies were real they’d be near GFC highs So we’re near GFC on 90 day delinquencies on almost everything. …
Are office buildings the last prop holding banks from imploding? Small banks are hiding massive losses in CRE. Massive, like going out of business levels of losses. That's why they're kicking the can hoping they don't have to foreclose. There's nothing to foreclose on. This shit would make Lehman look like a walk in the …
Well, that was quite a surprise. We just got confirmation that inflation is picking up steam once again. That’s concerning news, because the cost of living has already been putting pressure on people nationwide. In fact, one recent survey found that 86 percent of Americans are stressed about grocery prices. But it’s not just food …
US bankruptcies are surging past 2020 pandemic levels, per Business Insider. What's going on? byu/AlphaFlipper inDegenBets In Wake of Trump Tariffs, John Deere Announces Mass Layoffs John Deere has been hit hard by President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The farm equipment manufacturer and industry bellwether just announced mass layoffs affecting more than 200 workers at three …
$PLTR might be the most overvalued stock of all times, says The Economist. It doesn’t get to be a genius to see this.$PLTR Free Cash Flow: $1.7 billion$PLTR Market Cap: $412 billion$UNH Free Cash Flow: $25 billion$UNH Market Cap: $280 billion That says something. pic.twitter.com/1vNsb13lEL — Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) August 19, 2025 1/ Howard Marks …
Consumer sentiment ≠ vibes. It’s a monthly national survey that translates household feelings into a number (1966=100). It tracks how secure Americans feel about finances, the economy, and buying conditions. Since consumer spending drives ~70% of GDP, these feelings matter. — StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) August 18, 2025 The August report was brutal: • Index fell to …
The Fed’s reacting to lagging labor data while ignoring leading inflation signals. Policy misfire incoming. JUST IN 🚨: The odds of a September rate cut have soared to over 94% pic.twitter.com/E8copNJVuO — Barchart (@Barchart) August 12, 2025 Overall US CPI moved up to 2.7% in July, the highest level since February. US Core CPI (excluding …
In July 2025, 71 large US companies filed for bankruptcy. That is the highest monthly total since the pandemic lockdown peak in 2020. June saw 66 filings, and May had 64. Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1955262243320541630 The year-to-date total now stands at 446 bankruptcies, already surpassing full-year totals for 2021, which had 405, and 2022 with 373. This …
Apparently diversification is just owning more of the same thing. It's official: The top 10% largest US stocks now reflect a record 76% of the US equity market. This has officially surpassed the previous record set before the Great Depression in the 1930s. By comparison, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, the top 10%'s share …
Canada’s wildfire season has already burned over 2.7 million hectares and displaced more than 33,000 people. “What we are witnessing is not just a series of isolated incidents, but a glimpse into a new, fire-prone reality shaped by human activities and climate change.” https://unu.edu/inweh/news/canadas-wildfire-crisis-harsh-glimpse-new-climate-reality-cascading-impacts-beyond-its The smoke crossed borders. Over 117 million people in the U.S. …
SPX historically drops 2% after similar signals since 2011 According to BofA's Michael Hartnett, #sell #signals have been triggered.– BofA FMS Cash Rule: cash as % AUM in FMS 3.9%. = sell signal…average SPX loss in following most from 15 "sell" signals since 2011 = 2%;– BofA Global Breadth Rule: 64% of MSCI ACWI equity …
S&P 500 market breadth is near the worst levels it's ever been byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
The Bank for International Settlements just dropped its annual report, and it reads like a warning label. The global economy is entering what they call a pivotal moment. Not a soft patch. Not a cycle. A structural shift. The kind that doesn’t reverse with a rate cut or a stimulus bill. Agustín Carstens, the outgoing …
Record 14 million homes set to flood market. There is a US record 14 million homes coming to market over the next 5 years (assuming no housing crash). With only 4.3 million households being formed — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 26, 2025 ALERT: US population growth has completely collapsed Reaching levels near 0% = NO …
For 20 years, China was one of largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt. They recycled trade surpluses into U.S. bonds, helping America borrow cheaply while keeping the yuan weak. It was a codependent financial marriage. But now? China is walking away. — StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) June 26, 2025 Gold is now China’s fastest-growing reserve asset …
Layoffs surge 80 percent over last year. U.S. employers announced almost 100,000 job cuts in May, up 47% from the same month last year Read more: https://t.co/eblFmoiRIQ — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 26, 2025 Massachusetts closing in on 5% unemployment is a major canary in the coal mine. https://t.co/0CAtRANQl4 pic.twitter.com/o1ErSondtS — Sold At The Top (@soldatthetop) …
Not a lot of layoffs… true… only Sep 2008 levels pic.twitter.com/PGYPmR0P04 — Michael Green (@profplum99) June 18, 2025 You’ve gotta be kidding!!! Microsoft is about to lay off another 8,000 people on July 2. That’s 14,000 jobs gone in 2 months… – Not performance cuts– Entire sales orgs getting wiped– Mid-management? Done-zo– 30% of Microsoft’s …
When everyone from your barber to your Uber driver talks stocks you know fundamentals have long been ignored. In 2025 that chatter is deafening. People brag about crypto holdings and leveraged ETFs like they built them. You see talk of FIRE dollar cost averaging and compound annual growth rates from folks still paying off student …
The headlines keep flashing red. But when you follow the money, you get a different picture. Despite a world tangled in geopolitical tension and recession warnings, foreign investors are still gripping American stocks like they know something the headlines don’t. The numbers say it all. As of June 2024, Treasury data shows foreign holdings of …
The US housing market is teetering — and buyers are running for the exits. Spooked by high mortgage rates, mounting insurance premiums, and growing fears of a shaky economy, an astonishing one in seven buyers are bailing at the last minute. In April alone, 56,000 home purchase contracts were canceled — equal to 14.3 percent …