Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
TIMECODES 00:00 Introduction: The Next Economic Crisis 00:37 Understanding Past Crises and Patterns 01:11 The Hedge Fund Collapse of 1998 02:26 How Long-Term Capital Management Failed 04:13 The Birth of Future Bailouts 05:08 From Hedge Funds to Banks: 2008 Crisis 06:07 How the Repo Market Fueled the Meltdown 07:17 Taxpayers Absorb the Cost 08:16 2020 …
https://twitter.com/MacroNatures/status/1975539158727991798 I mean…. How could anybody POSSIBLY have seen THIS coming? 🙄 Salt Bae suffers record loss as diners lose appetite for £600 steaks https://t.co/HX7hC4xOiV — Grant Williams (@ttmygh) October 8, 2025 See this is one of my key charts…. To say that we definitely have a SLOWDOWN – Unemployment Level is UP – Short …
The dollar’s purchasing power has collapsed 87% since 1970. Breaking out again from a rising wedge on the hourly. pic.twitter.com/iPD7rgYiaK — Sheppo (@VVeThePeople) September 30, 2025 Overnight gains are accelerating: Silver prices are now up +63% YTD, gold prices up +46% YTD. This makes precious metals one of the best performing asset classes for 2-straight …
Bitcoin's fate lies with the Nasdaq. Won't be long. pic.twitter.com/uZRMxlNhNE — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 9, 2025 Zooming out: over the past month the 10Y-2Y spread has bull-steepened +9 bps and the 10Y-3M +15 bps. In modern history, a sharp bull-steepening following a deep inversion has only occurred heading into recessions, making this one …
The housing market didn’t collapse. It was looted. The 2008 crash wasn’t a failure. It was a transfer. The Fed absorbed $2.7 trillion in toxic mortgage-backed securities from its bankster accomplices, dumped the fallout onto taxpayers, and called it stability. “The Fed still holds about $2.7 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, down only slightly from its …
The penalty is real. The tariffs are live. At 12:01 a.m. EDT, the Trump administration doubled duties on Indian goods, jumping from 25% to 50% and hitting more than half of India’s exports to the United States. The White House cast the move as punishment for India’s continued purchases of Russian oil, framing every barrel …
Markets cheered, but the message was hawkish. Powell didn’t promise cuts. He didn’t hint at September. He made the Fed’s caution sound like reassurance. That’s not dovish. That’s tight policy, carefully cloaked. “Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment are to the downside — a challenging situation,” Powell said. Stocks …
The S&P 500 keeps climbing to new highs while the transportation index, which tracks trucking, shipping, and freight companies, has started to stall out. That matters because transports are tied directly to the real economy, if goods aren’t moving, demand is slowing, and it usually shows up there first. In the past, these two have …
What’s next? Human baby farms mass producing babies? https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/china-worlds-first-pregnancy-humanoid-robot China firm plans world’s first pregnancy humanoid robot using artificial womb The innovation uses artificial amniotic fluid and nutrient delivery via hose, replicating natural gestation, now to be integrated into humanoid robots Jijo Malayil A Chinese tech firm is racing to deliver what could be the …
BREAKING: President Trump accuses Nancy Pelosi of insider trading. pic.twitter.com/HtWMIsDJoh — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 9, 2025 Trump calls Pelosi a “disgusting degenerate.” Says her husband “beat every hedge fund in 2024.” Blames “INSIDE INFORMATION.” https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/trump-accuses-pelosi-insider-trading Pelosi’s 2024 return: +54% Trump’s crypto wallet: +900% Pelosi’s trades: Apple, NVIDIA, Palo Alto Networks Trump’s trades: MAGA …
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now 30% of their total assets, the most in history 🚨 Probably Fine? pic.twitter.com/ILr70bCct7 — Barchart (@Barchart) August 3, 2025 Berkshire Hathaway’s cash is now 30% of its total assets, the highest in its history. The company holds $344 billion in cash because it sees few good places to invest. …
BREAKING:British Farmers including TV pundit Jeremy Clarksons Farm have been infected with Bovine Tuberculosis. Farmers are concerned as this comes after their herds were vaccinated with Bill Gates injections. Farms in the UK & France are seeing mass slaughter of Cattle. pic.twitter.com/NBkkM99RNP — The White Rabbit Podcast 🐇 (@AllBiteNoBark88) August 1, 2025 Jeremy Clarkson’s farm …
$100B exits Canada since February. 🚨BREAKING – INVESTORS CONTINUE TO FLEE CANADA – STATS CAN Both Canadian and International investors continue to move their money out of Canada with almost 100 billion dollars having left Canada since Feb. …. 90% of the money is moving to the USA. pic.twitter.com/udqQSxTpxN — Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@Tablesalt13) July 17, …
by David Haggith The congressional budget bill has become the most bloated bill to ever waddle and slide through congress. Donald Trump tries to lead his “Big Beautiful Blob” on a journey from Congress to the Offal Orifice for signing. “Big Beautiful Bill” can’t stop growing. This pile of pork that required two pallet boards …
This market is running on fumes. There is no solid floor beneath it. No wave of earnings. No surge in demand. No real liquidity. It is all built on guesswork, misplaced optimism, and the fear of missing a rally that never had a base to begin with. The Fed keeps everyone waiting. But waiting for …
The bond market is fighting Trump: Despite countless efforts to calm yields, they keep rising. The 10Y Note Yield is now up +35 bps in May alone, back at 4.50%. As trade deals are announced, rate cuts are being priced out, giving Powell more of a reason to not cut rates.… pic.twitter.com/7LCuywFqMK — The Kobeissi …
They have made it nearly impossible to see straight. Every headline is a trap. Every soundbite is a lure. And as Americans argue over identity, pronouns, or who gets to use which bathroom, the country beneath their feet quietly erodes. This is not a coincidence. It is the plan. While people scream at each other …
$NVDA from plus 4% to red Never gonna let it rip without the insiders load https://t.co/4eWgQtG1aZ — John Trades MBA (@JPATrades) April 14, 2025 $AAPL keeps fading. wow. — Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) April 14, 2025 Last week, the Monday panic gap down was the low of the week. It's highly likely that today's panic gap higher …
“JPMorgan today lowered its price target on Amazon $AMZN to $220 from $270 while maintaining its Overweight rating JPMorgan lowered its price target on Google $GOOGL to $180 from $220 while maintaining its Overweight rating JPMorgan lowered its price target on $META to $610 from $725 while maintaining its Overweight rating JPMorgan lowered its price …
$SPY people believe that the 2007 Great Financial Crash was a large surprise (below) But it was anything but a surprise. The moving averages were textbook. Clear tests of support, followed by a rejection from below twice and then Lehmans collapsed. What sometimes clouds… pic.twitter.com/2LaGy1a0z3 — The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) April 2, 2025 Tech and …
The president’s comments deflect attention from other controversies. And they freeze the field of potential successors who might steal the spotlight from a lame duck. President Trump cannot run for a third term as president, barring changes to the Constitution. But that has not stopped him from openly flirting with the idea. He has floated …
On Saturday the Ukrainian leader bragged that Ukraine is now holding long range missiles that can reach Moscow. Again, Zelensky does not want peace. The Daily Mail reported: Volodymyr Zelensky has revealed Ukraine has successfully combat tested its new domestically-produced Long Neptune missile with a range of 621 miles. This puts Russian capital Moscow within …
Germany’s economy is struggling, but the DAX keeps soaring to fresh all-time highs. How? It’s a blatant disconnect from reality. Manufacturing is in decline, energy costs are crippling industries, and consumer sentiment is weak—yet the market marches higher. This isn’t growth; it’s artificial inflation propped up by central banks and corporate buybacks. At some point, …
A federal judge on Tuesday revised the restrictions on access to the Treasury’s payment system. As previously reported, corrupt Obama Judge Paul Englemayer on Saturday issued an ex parte Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) forbidding all of Trump appointees, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, from accessing Department of Treasury data in response to a lawsuit filed …
Costco’s stock price is a gravity-defying spectacle, but the laws of parabola always win. A grocery store, no matter how beloved, should not be trading at a P/E of 62. That’s not sustainable; that’s euphoria. Every bubble looks justified until it bursts, and when reality sets in, valuations will find their way back to sanity. …
Interest rate futures now show a base case of Fed rate cuts being paused until June 2025. The decision to pause cuts appears to be largely uncontested by Fed officials. PCE inflation data Friday is huge. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 29, 2025
Economic data keeps surprising to the downside!! Citi Surprise Index 👇 pic.twitter.com/DPdKUV0ji2 — James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) December 29, 2024 They are currently 10 million Americans who are delinquent on their student loans. On January 1, they are going to start seeing their credit scores deteriorate. Not a good outcome for consumer credit growth! pic.twitter.com/IjOZy4tos1 …
Reverse repo surges $72BN to $268.7BN for year-end window dressing. Funding market spreads already had blown out to 3 month highs amid spike in repo tightness pic.twitter.com/wyBoMBEPN8 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 27, 2024 The Federal Reserve's emergency Bank Term Funding Program dropped to $5 billion this week. It'll be $0 in January. pic.twitter.com/md8wCxDkVv — Financelot …
"Ottawa Sharpens the Axe" Thousands of federal public servants brace for potential layoffs as Ottawa targets $15.8B in budget cuts. 🪓 pic.twitter.com/IsYAPpTBoa — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) December 24, 2024 1/ RE/MAX predicts a 5% national price increase in 2025, with GTA real estate maintaining its strength. But numbers alone don't tell the full story. Let’s peel …
