Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME The Sahm rule indicates that we are in recession if it breaches 0.5%. It currently sits at 0.37% which is the highest it has been since 2003 when the economy is not in a recessionary environment. The rule has been in a clear uptrend since January. Another minor rise in unemployment may tip the …
Investors are facing a challenging market with substantial upside potential in stocks but also the highest long-term risk since 1999. Stagflation warnings have been issued since early 2023, with signs indicating a severe and long-lasting stagflationary period ahead. Central banks are trapped between inflationary and liquidity crises, exacerbated by underreported inflation and the rise of …
Bearish Bets against the Japanese Yen rise to highest level in AT LEAST the last 18 years pic.twitter.com/2qqA5nm9lx — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) May 3, 2024
In a delicate balancing act, the Federal Reserve chose to keep its benchmark interest rate steady, resisting the pressure to cut rates as the economy faces cooling growth alongside persistent inflationary pressures. As households and businesses await the central bank’s decision, the stakes are high, with implications for borrowing costs, economic activity, and the trajectory …
Housing defaults have now reached the highest level in a decade. Multi-family = Apartments This is not looking too good … 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/WLmNtorY9I — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) April 25, 2024 Purchase applications for homes continue to collapse. Exactly as zero of the "housing analysts" predicted pic.twitter.com/ZW8pMkMGv4 — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) April 25, 2024
Biden just proposed the highest capital gains tax in history pic.twitter.com/CuiDXbJum6 — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) April 24, 2024 President Biden’s Budget proposal for Fiscal Year 2025 has ignited intense debate and scrutiny, particularly regarding plans to raise capital gains rates. The proposed increase to 44.6% has drawn widespread attention, but a …
Florida’s housing market is facing a storm as price cuts hit record levels, signaling potential price drops and posing challenges for both buyers and sellers alike. Key Points: Price cuts in Florida have surged to their highest level since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In March 2024, 30.1% of all house listings in Florida experienced …
Russian Navy Strategic Broadcast “RDL” sending a T-600 “MONOLITH” (highest priority) message to submarines on VLF 18.1KHz. Note the twice Morse code XXX at the beginning of the transmission, indicating the highest priority. 🔥🇷🇺Russian Navy Strategic Broadcast “RDL” sending a T-600 “MONOLITH” (highest priority) message to submarines on VLF 18.1KHz. Note the twice Morse code …
Despite expectations of inflation tapering, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge surpasses 8%, highlighting ongoing economic strains. March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) records a significant uptick at 3.5%, the highest since September 2023, with Core CPI outperforming forecasts for four consecutive months at 3.8%. Amidst this backdrop, concerns loom over the sustainability of rising power …
by confoundedinterest17 Despite Biden’s rambling that inflation is improving, bear in mind that the inflation rate is at it highest in 50 years. Yes, it has improved from 18% in 2022 to above 10% today. A recent research paper by four noted economists, including Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary under Barack Obama and former …
Trump Media, which began being publicly traded last week, is now far and away the most expensive stock to sell short, according to S3 Partners, a leading financial data marketplace platform. Investors who wanted to borrow Trump Media shares to sell them short on Wednesday would have had to pay financing costs of between 750% …
Office Vacancy Rates expected to hit highest level in history during Q1 2024 pic.twitter.com/kU48krStdE — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 2, 2024 Rising Commercial Real Estate Delinquency Rates Delinquency rates for commercial real estate have risen during each of the past three recessionary periods, and they are currently on the rise again. This chart shows …
CRB stands for “Commodity Research Bureau,” which is a widely followed index that tracks the prices of various commodities. It includes 19 commodities in its index. Just as Powell gets dovish, the CRB index is within 1% of its highest close since August 2022. pic.twitter.com/xqYwUYZrmV — Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar) March 26, 2024
Unemployment and supply of homes are correlating higher now as well pic.twitter.com/cfgrH7wAsT — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) March 26, 2024 The real estate rollercoaster is hitting some unexpected twists and turns, with February delivering a double whammy of unsettling news. Brace yourselves: layoffs have skyrocketed a jaw-dropping 410% compared to last year, hitting levels not …
This trend raises alarm about the broader risks from interlinked dependencies. LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) – Europe’s private credit funds are increasingly borrowing from banks to boost their performance, fuelling concerns about the wider risks posed by this interconnectedness. A record 80% of new European private credit funds borrowed from banks via ‘subscription lines’ in …
Global Corporate Defaults hit highest level since the Global Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/A676mRcBI7 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) March 14, 2024 Meanwhile in US: WARNING: Credit card default rate for small lenders have just hit a new record of 7.8% These levels have never been seen since 1991 pic.twitter.com/DrCN9MF0bv — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) March 14, 2024
via NYP: President Biden unveiled his election-year budget pitch Monday, calling for $5.5 trillion in tax increases by raising rates on the wealthy and corporations — while spending $7.3 trillion on defense, federal benefit programs, affordable housing and student debt cancellation, among other proposals. The fiscal year 2025 budget — which is highly unlikely to …
by confoundedinterest17 Somehow, Biden left this factoid out of his State of The Union (SOTU) address. In February, immigrants added 1,277 million jobs while native Americans lost -420,000 jobs according to the BLS. Or maybe Biden can change his campaign motto to “Make America Great Again … For Immigrants, NOT Natives.” In February, the unemployment rate unexpectedly …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, it is the Ides of March. No, not Nikki Haley trying to sabotage Donald Trump’s campaign after Nikki got clobbered in all but two state primaries. So in a sour grapes move, Haley didn’t endorse Trump. But the Ides of March refers to the stabbing of Julius Caesar (led by Brutus). Once …
ATTENTION: Housing defaults have just hit the highest levels since 2013 This is now starting to look scary pic.twitter.com/IP2J3mCYHs — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) February 18, 2024 Home prices just saw the largest year-over-year decline, dating back to 1964: https://t.co/kn2vAsyI15 — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) February 20, 2024 Na pic.twitter.com/eBLQWa1HGM — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) February 20, 2024
by confoundedinterest17 As some fans celebrate the Kansas City Chiefs Superbowl victory over the San Francisco 49ers (the game was so much like bread and circuses from the Roman Empire except for who is being thrown to the lions), we have been distracted from the horrible state of the US economy. Just review that horrible December …
"Financial firms announced 23,238 job cuts in January, the highest monthly total in more than five years."@lizrhoffman pic.twitter.com/nRNmMCrLmF — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) February 2, 2024
Gay Dad Adopts 3 Kids, Buys Them Cock Rings, And Takes Them To Drag Shows: 🚩 “Gay dad” has his kids appear in his tiktok where they talk about him giving them c**k rings as bracelets and taking them to drag shows pic.twitter.com/1CxlVO2LaO — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) February 2, 2024 AC
In a perplexing turn of events, the tech industry is witnessing a paradox where soaring stock values on Wall Street stand in stark contrast to a surge in layoffs. January 2024 has set a troubling record, with 23,670 workers facing layoffs from 85 tech companies, marking the highest monthly figure since March of the previous …
