Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: “We’re 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant …
Australia's welfare bill could exceed the size of New Zealand's entire economy in just a few years https://t.co/bn8RUpbmhv — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) April 9, 2026 Australia is heading toward a welfare blowout so large that Commonwealth social spending could soon rival, or even surpass, the entire economy of New Zealand. Government figures show welfare spending …
It’s not just the war that is pushing interest rates up. The debt is unsustainable and we soon won’t be able to service it. It’s irresponsible. https://t.co/WRKQ08YVob — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) March 25, 2026 Total U.S. obligations exceed $136,200,000,000,000. FIVE times U.S. annual GDP. "America is facing a fiscal catastrophe. The reckoning, long deferred, is becoming …
Bank of America just dropped a massive warning that U.S. growth stocks hover in a bubble bigger than the dot‑com crash. A recent note shows about 37 % of the S&P 500 is tied up in ten firms alone, near the highest level ever recorded and edging into record territory. The average P/E for those top names clocks …
Source: https://backlinko.com/reddit-users Assuming this is true, what is your guess about how many of these 400 million users are real people? h/t DerpyMistake
Job cuts remain elevated this month, even accounting for temporary re-hiring imposed by judges, >112K cuts this month#MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/4thThM2DnC — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) March 19, 2025
Michael Burry: The moment your interest payments exceed tax revenue, your country officially becomes a Ponzi scheme. pic.twitter.com/rTMsSWVAwK — TFTC (@TFTC21) March 19, 2025
Fires raging across the Los Angeles area entered their fourth day, killing at least ten people, forcing the evacuation of 180,000 residents, and destroying more than ten thousand structures. Preliminary estimates place damages and economic losses up to $150 billion. As of Friday morning, five fires are burning across the LA County area. The largest, …
by confoundedinterest17 Here is Biden/Harrisnomics in one chart! Treasury (interest) payments are growing faster than other government outlays and a larger than the entire Defense outlays. Leading outlays include Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security. Here is Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen symbolically gorging on a foot-long sub. No one spends like unelected government bureaucrats!
Tucker Carlson’s scathing expose reveals how credit card companies exploit Americans with hidden fees, driving them into debt. Senators Vance, Marshal, and Hawley lead the charge for change with the Credit Card Competition Act, aiming to alleviate the burden on consumers. Meanwhile, alarming spikes in delinquency rates at major issuers like Discover Financial signal economic …
🚨 The American Healthcare System Is Being Overwhelmed By Illegal Migrants “Hospitals in sanctuary cities right now, New York City, Denver, San Diego, Chicago, Boston, tell us that they’re at risk of collapsing financially due to the overwhelming number of illegal migrants… pic.twitter.com/bir38w2FgH — Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) April 3, 2024 https://twitter.com/raymo_g/status/1730252756496064681
Interest payments on $34 trillion US national debt will exceed DEFENSE spending this year – as legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones says a ‘debt bomb’ set to go off in US Interest payments on the US national debt will eclipse defense spending in 2024, grim new projections show. Federal debt is at a historic high, …
https://www.ft.com/content/a02cb631-8ae4-4ac2-be45-edfa776ed75f The world’s corporate sector has been hit by a wave of bankruptcies occurring at a double-digit pace unseen in decades, the Financial Times reported on Monday, citing data from national statistics offices. Business insolvencies in the US saw a year-on-year surge of 30% in the 12 months through September, while in Germany, the EU’s …
A quarter of 40-year-olds in the United States have never been married, according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by the Pew Research Center. As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, this marks the highest figure since the data first started being published back in 1900, and a major leap from the 6 percent low of 1980. You will …
The Prime Rate is now 8.5%, the highest since it hit 9% in 2001. Prime hasn't exceeded 10% since the 1980s. Many loans are set at prime plus a premium. From 2008 to 2022 Prime was mostly 3.5%. The record high was 19.5% in 1981. I believe that the high this cycle will exceed 20%. …
Since the creation of the Fed in 1913, US federal debt has on average doubled every 8-9 years. By 2036 US debt could be approximately 100T. If we make it that far lol. How do we get out of this financial mess? Neither party in DC seems able or willing to actually cut… pic.twitter.com/3evQTQdijo — …
by betsharks0 Maybe Joe will forgive all auto loans.
So far, Q2 profits from S&P 500 companies are down about 8% from a year ago, according to a blend of reported results and consensus estimates. But 80% of companies have so far topped Wall Street profit expectations, a slightly higher rate than average. https://t.co/I9Hmwd7io6 — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) July 28, 2023
by confoundedinterest17 How badly has Bidenomics and generally Federal spending has crippled the US? An example. The interest on US Federal debt is approaching $1 TRILLION (and Biden/Democrats REFUSE to cut any spending, not that Republicans are much better). To show up how messed up this is, the EU’s defense budget (remember Ukraine?) is far …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Liabilities and Capital Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury -76.292 billion as of 7/5/2023. Let’s talk about the Fed’s cumulative losses, in fewer than 9 months, are GREATER (-76.292 billion, so far vs $76 billion) than what was remitted to the U.S. Treasury for ALL of 2022… https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW Remember, the Fed …
by BoatSurfer600 Borrowers with expiring fixed-rate or tracker mortgages face difficulties, with some saying they will be forced to sell their homes via theguardian For Steven, a media consultant from Guildford, and his wife, the remortgaging nightmare is only beginning. “People like me can’t sleep at night – it’s horrendous,” he says. “The mortgage for …
by scott_jr Used car loan-to-value ratios increased to 125 in the first three months of this year from 104 for the same period in 2021 Negative equity, or the amount that debt exceeds a vehicle’s value, has ballooned in recent years, with some consumers stepping into car dealerships $10,000 underwater. Vehicle values are expected to …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: Memorandum from the Division of Economic and Risk Analysis My understanding is figures 9 and 10 outline the daily market participants’ gross positions in securities exceeding 7% and 10% of the security’s market capitalization. On average, 65 participants exceed the 7% threshold daily, and 46 exceed the 10% threshold. The highest recorded numbers …
BREAKING: Median asking rent for a US home rises 1.4% in May to $1,995/month. Meanwhile, the average new car payment is now $800/month. On top of this, the average American is paying $430/month in credit card debt. This means the average person is now paying $3,225/month for… — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 12, 2023 …
by confoundedinterest17 Well, not really unexpected since the housing sentiment index for home builders was above 50 yesterday. But with The Fed pausing rate hikes, housing starts are soaring! US housing starts unexpectedly surged in May by the most since 2016 and applications to build increased, suggesting residential construction is on track to help fuel …
