Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Full-time jobs fell 514000 in June. Now at 133.66 million. Lowest level since December 2024. This marks third consecutive monthly drop. Total decline hits 1.01 million. Official summary: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Full PDF report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Strong consumers do not flee bulk stores for bargain bins. Small business employment shrank again in December according to Paychex. We will get a clearer picture once we get the ADP and payroll data later this week. pic.twitter.com/KmzIqUJ6fG — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) January 6, 2026 Riddle me this. If the US consumer is so strong …
by Waiting_for_Exit “You’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy” – From Davos Summit 2016 I see people searching for big foot or looking to find lizard people and laugh my head off. The greatest conspiracies, the most deviant acts, the most merciless massacres are all being done in front of the whole world because the …
by Michael It is starting to look a lot like the Great Recession again. I thought that the pace of layoffs in 2024 was bad, but it has just exploded here in 2025. Vast numbers of good paying jobs are being ruthlessly eliminated, and competition for any decent jobs that are still available has become …
by Michael The employment numbers for the month of August were just released, and they are horrible. Sadly, they have now been horrible for several months in a row, and many economists are warning that conditions will get even worse during the months ahead. Other than during the early days of the pandemic in 2020, …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The ISM report for August reads like mild stagflation. ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM® Please consider the August 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® by Susan Spence, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management®. “In August, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly …
by Michael Have the official employment numbers finally achieved peak fakeness? We just got another perfect example of why so many of us have completely lost faith in the fake figures that government bureaucrats have been feeding us. For months we were told that employment was booming, but now we are being told that just the opposite is …
by Michael What in the world just happened to the job market? The unexpectedly bad numbers that have just come in have truly been a shock to many of us. Yes, we knew that conditions were getting worse during the early stages of this year. In fact, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has …
As an employment lawyer who represents fired employees, I get an interesting preview as to how the economy is doing. It's bad, folks. — Kathryn Marshall (@Lawsome_) June 5, 2025 Tons of mass terminations. — Kathryn Marshall (@Lawsome_) June 5, 2025 Translation-our customers are broke now that student loan repayments have resumed. pic.twitter.com/IutBGdM6TQ — Cherrygarciafan. …
We already know where this is going. We’ve been in a recession for probably at least a year (if not more) under Biden. As soon as Trump gets into office, they’ll reveal the real numbers and blame Trump for the recession. Don’t let them lie! 🚨US PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT IS IN A RECESSION🚨 US private …
by Mike Shedlock The strange jobs reports continue as the divergence between jobs and employment widens again. Data from the BLS, chart by Mish Please consider the BLS Employment Report for November. Jobs vs Employment From September 2020 through early 2022, nonfarm payroll job gains and full time employment changes tracked together. Starting around March of 2022, …
Lost in the payroll mess, the ISM (manu) dropped to fifteen-month low not far off it. Worst part of it is how employment has dropped off during the summer, more evidence aligning with payrolls, hiring, layoffs, nominal incomes, etc. Firms have been cutting back production, trimming hours, reducing headcounts, and backlogs are still declining at …
⚠️US FOOD INFLATION IS BACK⚠️ Food prices rose by 0.4% in Sep, the biggest jump since February 2023. 5 out of the 6 major grocery store food group prices increased with eggs jumping as much as 8.4%. Over the last 4 years, food prices SKYROCKETED 22.5%👇https://t.co/OAcZin2MlG — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) October 15, 2024 Rising …
BREAKING: The number of people working MULTIPLE jobs in the US hit 8.66 million in September, a new record. This is ~300,000 above the peak seen before the pandemic and ~600,000 above the 2008 peak. Furthermore, the number of part-time jobs has jumped by ~3 million over the… pic.twitter.com/znOOEMR6Ln — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October …
by Mike Shedlock BLS math is often peculiar. This month is a real doozie. Four charts. Data from the BLS Household Survey, chart by Mish Private vs Government Employment Notes Data is from the Household Survey as is the Unemployment Rate The BLS says wage and salary government employment rose by 785,000 The BLS says …
Back to the slowing of the economy. The speed in which inflation is collapsing is astounding. I think you’re going to see a dovish Powell on Friday. The market has been telling us this the past 6 trading days. The honeymoon of falling inflation won’t last long though. https://t.co/9R1GXzHMLe — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 21, …
by Mike Shedlock ADP data shows year-over-year payroll growth is negative 88,000 for small corporations sized 20-49. Trends are negative in all but very large corporations. Data from ADP, chart by Mish I created some new charts today from a download of the ADP National Employment Report for July. Year-Over-Year Payroll Growth Key Points Trends are very …
This is several years old, but the trend is clear. More females in the workforce, less males in the workforce (participation rate%). Plus they just added millions of immigrants into the country seeking jobs. pic.twitter.com/6HyJapaaFK — floridanow1 (@floridanow1) July 10, 2024
The number of unemployed Americans is approaching 7 million#MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/0VysBJ5m6N — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) July 5, 2024 🇺🇸 US full time employment -1.551 million YoY. 𝗜𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆! pic.twitter.com/KXWlzWRDoc — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) July 5, 2024 US unemployment rate for June is now 4.1%, above expectations of 4% — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 5, 2024 JUST IN: …
via notayesmanseconomics We have seldom been in a time where there has been so much confusion and uncertainty about the US economy. We came into 2024 with the Conference Board leafing indicators having suggested a recession on the cards and then saw that annual economic growth had been around 3%. More recently the two surveys …
WARNING: Trucking employment has been collapsing This is a precursor to recessions since 1991 pic.twitter.com/QwxGaAGIZO — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 13, 2024 US ECONOMY: UNEMPLOYMENT 📈 📈 Initial claims up nearly 20% since January to 242,000! 📈Continued claims up 6.4%, reaching 1.82 million. Economic pressures persist, underlining the need for support. Stay informed and stay …
Recent economic updates from the U.S. paint a bleak picture, stirring deep unease among investors. The latest indicators, including the sharp decline in the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, signal a worrisome underperformance reminiscent of the tumultuous trends observed in 2019. This downturn in economic sentiment comes at a precarious moment, with all eyes fixed on …
Stan Druckenmiller on Bidenomics: “If I was a professor, I’d give him an F. Treasury is still spending like we’re in a depression. We have 7% budget deficits at full employment… it’s unheard of.” pic.twitter.com/YTs0EgLkjF — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 12, 2024 Whether it’s a Democrat or Republican in office we overspend. Regardless of whether or …
United States Employment Cost Indexhttps://t.co/ctIxwn2OIh pic.twitter.com/pqibeiF878 — TRADING ECONOMICS (@tEconomics) April 30, 2024 U.S. labor costs surged beyond forecasts in the first quarter, climbing 1.2% amid a boost in wages and benefits, reinforcing early-year inflation concerns. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) uptick may influence Federal Reserve deliberations as it navigates monetary policy amidst mounting price …
As economic indicators flash warning signs, the Sahm Rule and Goldman Sachs McKelvey indicator converge to declare the onset of recession since October 23, 2023. With employment outlooks turning bleak, early business surveys hint at a downturn in both manufacturing and services sectors for April, casting a shadow over the trajectory of the economy. Amidst …
🇺🇸 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Expectations minus Present Situation -77.2 Leading indicator for #recession! Chart: @LizAnnSonders pic.twitter.com/nYsQcGlMBq — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) March 27, 2024 As economic indicators send warning signals, analysts are keeping a close eye on the pulse of the trucking industry. The latest data points to a downturn in the number of …
via Mike Shedlock Questions about foreign workers came up yesterday on Twitter. The numbers are from the BLS. US and Foreign Born Employment Data from the BLS chart by Mish Since the data is not seasonally adjusted, it’s important to compare numbers to the same month a year ago. I also added pandemic lows for …
via Mike Shedlock US-born employment is lower now than it was in January of 2020. Foreign-born workers make up over 100 percent of the employment gains. The Center for Immigration Studies reports Compared to 2019, All Employment Growth Has Gone to the Foreign-Born Comparing the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2023 shows …
Recent revelations suggest unconventional practices within the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), where students associated with the Black Caucus of Federal Aviation Employees were allegedly given secret code words for their resumes. This practice aimed to fast-track their applications to the front of the line. Even more astonishing is the claim that individuals could be prioritized …
I’ve been laid off from my job as a columnist for the LA Times today, with 100 of my best colleagues. It’s a dark day. I was the only Latina columnist for the opinion desk. Trump is looming & I’m author of Hatemonger. If you're hiring, I’m at jeangue619@gmail.com — Jean Guerrero (@jeanguerre) January 23, …