Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The situation gets even tighter as we approach the March 15 corporate tax deadline. Historically, this triggers another massive spike in the TGA as cash moves from private bank accounts (reserves) into the Treasury’s vault. If you think a -$74B net drain is bearish, wait until the corporate tax receipts start hitting the ledger mid-month. …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01649108.pdf This shows wilfully and intentional violation of the Epstein File Transparency Act and both should be charged in inherent obstruction. They’ll likely be given immunity as they were just “following orders”. h/t Stimul8ed
And there is even a tawdry little connection between Epstein and Bitcoin back in its early days. by David Haggith Enjoy the swim! If all the crashing sounds from crypto, stocks and the US dollar have you feeling worn out, grab a cup of coffee—and maybe a second cup—because one of our stories today says …
💥BREAKING: 🇺🇸 BofA CEO warns that interest-bearing stablecoins could drain $6 trillion from U.S. banks. Crippling lending and sending borrowing costs soaring. Translation: banks are insanely afraid of crypto. pic.twitter.com/LhUJ15os2F — Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) January 16, 2026 Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said his bank will be “fine” if stablecoins become a larger part …
Wow, look what is replacing the once booming timber & oil mining county. Data centers that will stress the power grid and divert the water resources. “Mingo County, West Virginia, was once thriving, but the coal industry’s decline left it one of the poorest counties in the US. Now, multiple data centers could be built …
In the sewer business, they say a good flush beats a full house. This one isn’t a good flush. It’s the other kind that fills your house with a stinking mess you have to live with. by David Haggith Adam Taggart, in his interview below with Freightwaves’ Craig Fuller, says Fuller’s take on the economy sounds stagflationary, …
A woman says she was “shocked” when she was fined £150 for tipping the remnants of her coffee down a road gully in west London. Burcu Yesilyurt, who lives in Kew, said she thought she was acting “responsibly” when she poured out a small amount of coffee from her reusable cup down the drain rather …
This isn’t a question of ‘paper hands.’ The O/N RRP is now fully drained – something we haven’t seen since it surged in 2021. Thus, unless the Fed abruptly abandons QT & reverts to QE, US liquidity is going to contract for the 1st time since 2022. And the last time that happened, @Bitcoin collapsed …
Yes — and how would the Fed have rolled off a chunk of its US Treasury holdings since 2022, if not for the drain of the RRP? And even more importantly, now that the RRP is drained… who or what is going to finance the massive issuance/refinancing of UST bond coming our way?? pic.twitter.com/B5RjRno403 — …
More data: The NASDAQ appears to correlate roughly 70–80% with changes in the Fed’s discount window usage—markets tend to rise when liquidity rises and fall when it’s pulled back. pic.twitter.com/rjmIWWKCuW — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) May 22, 2025
1/5 So, the @federalreserve has allowed inflation expectations to become COMPLETELY unhinged, yet again, which means, soon, a surge in inflation is coming to a grocery "shelf" near you/me. Yet, instead of the folks who "have a voice" demanding to know why J. Powell… pic.twitter.com/D7OvkfZsYD — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) April 29, 2025 3/5… phenomenon (i.e., …
OpenAI is rolling out these so-called “agents” that could cost anywhere between $2,000 and $20,000 a month. And let’s be clear: this pricing is absurd. Let’s just take a moment to think about this—how in the world are AI agents supposed to replace human jobs, potentially revolutionize industries, and yet cost more than a yearly …
This market is close to breaking point. There is now so much leverage that futures-implied equity financing costs are at the same spread to SOFR as during the height of the GFC. And Japan is about to suck a couple hundred billion of levered balance sheet out of US money markets. And this is not …
Members of President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team are drawing up a list of military officers to be fired, potentially to include the Joint Chiefs of Staff, two sources said, in what would be an unprecedented shakeup at the Pentagon. The planning for the firings is at an early stage after Trump’s Nov. 5 election victory …
⚠️BREAKING: FED #BTFP 📉 •Federal Reserve Bank Funding program is down -40% from its summer high to $102 Billion • In the same time Frame the #nasdaq is down -8% The BTFP should drain down another $50 billion in Q3 pic.twitter.com/IoaFTDyDxk — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) August 1, 2024 The anticipated trend suggests that the …
The #BTFP is currently being drained as banks have to pay back their loans. This is now draining liquidity out of the markets. Here is what it means going forward and why the bank stocks have not fully crashed yet: The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) allows banks to borrow… pic.twitter.com/rxD21yDYhJ — The Coastal Journal …
The share of people who withdrew from their 401(k) for financial emergencies surged to a record high in 2023 as Americans looked to counteract rising prices and shrinking paychecks, according to The Wall Street Journal. Around 3.6% of 401(k) participants at investment manager Vanguard Group pulled money from their account, compared to 2.8% in 2022 …
by DAVID HAGGITH Photo by Eric Muhr on Unsplash Evidence of a severe recession that has already begun continues to build, and the cause is clear. As you can see in the following graph, money supply fell again in October and its “growth” has, during the Fed’s current quantitative tightening (QT), gone negative, since the end of …
They’re removing money from the system: TGA filling is just one of many liquidity drain factors the market is currently facing 1) Powell QT in full force,down ~50B in a wkdown ~100B in last 2 wks + more coming 2) TGA liquidity drain 3) stronger $$&4) higher rate indirectly drain the liquidity 5) super bearish🦃 …