Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
CNBC “I firmly believe that nothing is more transient than a supply shock, and we can, we can look through that, because before the Iranian conflict began, core inflation was coming down,” Bessent told CNBC’s Joe Kernen from the sidelines of President Donald Trump’s summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. “So I think core …
Fed Governor Stephen Miran: “If you close that border and you have negative net migration — and there’s been reports thus far that 1.5 million migrants have left the US just in the first half of the year — that’s gonna have a very disinflationary effect. And so I’m expecting quite a lot of disinflation.” …
You can just feel the disinflation…..🙄🙄🙄 pic.twitter.com/dGKW6MrNOm — Reggie Hammond (@markymark740338) May 2, 2025
While politicians across the globe keep pushing the narrative of fiscal responsibility, the bond market knows the truth: these governments are drowning in debt, and their economic recovery is little more than a façade. Bond markets do not believe the disinflation and deficit reduction messages of European and Japanese governments pic.twitter.com/PIVNPaMUBu — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) …
Interest rate futures now show a base case of Fed rate cuts being paused until June 2025. The decision to pause cuts appears to be largely uncontested by Fed officials. PCE inflation data Friday is huge. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 29, 2025
"China is the most imbalanced economy in the history of the world. They are in a severe recession/depression. They may have -4% disinflation." -Scott Bessent https://t.co/k6Xv3ZGedR pic.twitter.com/KSXl2zBwX8 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 16, 2025 🚨The drop in China's government bond yields has been biblical: Ongoing property crisis, deflation, youth unemployment, falling demographics, massive debt, and low …
Five year trend shows geopolitical risks create a floor, but long-term supply-demand trend is weak due to manufacturing weakness pic.twitter.com/NSn9PlR8OH — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) October 7, 2024 “This morning, yields on the U.S. 10-year bond soared over 4%. This continues a non-stop rise in yields following the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut on September …
BREAKING 🚨: Gasoline Gasoline at its lowest price since 2021 ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/haxWbzL6WA — Barchart (@Barchart) September 9, 2024 Disinflation has broadened. via BofA Juneau pic.twitter.com/IB5f6kWZOU — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) September 9, 2024 All commodities (obviously ex-Gold) pricing in a hard landing? Performance since 20th May which was the high for many of them (mainly copper) …
"Don't take disinflation for granted." https://t.co/zDYfsNGVyS via @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/ak9sbU311w — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) July 18, 2024
Global Disinflation trend is ending.. It was never going to last forever, but it does mean Rate Cuts are going to be a harder sell. pic.twitter.com/7bhrPjuI3l — Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) May 30, 2024 If the rate of inflation stays high (above target) or the pace of disinflation disappoints vs the central bank’s central forecasts, or …
via notayesmanseconomics: Firstly let me wish you a happy Chinese New Year for tomorrow. It has not been the best of periods for the Chinese economy as the property crisis has rumbled on. We can look at events via this mornings monetary data. At the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was …
So much for "rapid disinflation"…. via Morgan Stanley pic.twitter.com/wL8R1vh0RU — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 22, 2024 Still wild to think that food prices were much more stable prior to 1971, and then they took off 🚀 pic.twitter.com/cwYtGcrcoX — GrainStats 🌾 (@GrainStats) January 23, 2024
by qtrinh3 CNBC: Wholesale inflation rose 0.5% in September, more than expected The producer price index (wholesale price) is up 0.5% month to month. Beating the expected 0.3% rise MoM for September. CPI this Thursday will be bad as well (trust me bro). However, the US10Y is down yesterday and today. This is NOT because …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4&output_view=pct_1mth The Acceleration of Inflation in the Second Half Has Begun, “Disinflation” Honeymoon Terminated The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 0.63% in August from July, the biggest month-to-month increase since June 2022. Annualized, this amounts to a red-hot 7.8%. This jump comes despite the still ongoing ridiculous monthly adjustment to the health …
via notayesmanseconomics: We start the economic week with one of the wonders of the modern world, which is how China can produce its Gross Domestic Product or GDP numbers only 17 days after the end of the particular quarter. By contrast my own country the UK has switched to a slower production of quarterly numbers …
by Chris Black Today, we saw June headline CPI tumble to 3% YoY (year-over-year), down from 4% in May (https://t.me/marketfeed/416509) and 4.9% in April (https://t.me/marketfeed/404852). Could June, at 3%, be the inflation floor, where June of last year at 9.1% was the inflation peak? BofA notes that, unless the MoM (month-over-month; change per month) CPI …
What Fintwit sees: Powell successfully bringing us disinflation What the Average American sees: Everything is still way too expensive pic.twitter.com/OQ8yZDLOPO — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) July 12, 2023 CPI heat map. Additionally, they have changed the way this metric is calculated, in an effort for it to APPEAR to be better. pic.twitter.com/6DccZPmuoX — Wall Street Mav …