Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
In 2008 and again in 2020, similar steep drops in credit were quickly followed by aggressive Fed rate cuts and liquidity injections. This time, we’re seeing the same kind of credit contraction, but the Fed is still holding rates high, and there’s no sign of emergency fiscal support coming either. That’s what makes the current …
Something deeper is happening beneath the noise of the stock market highs and soft landing headlines. The economy is shifting. Not in the way central bankers talk about and not in the way financial media likes to report. This is structural. Slow. Brutal. And completely mispriced. Three deflationary forces are colliding all at once. Any …
The recent protests and unrest in Los Angeles have raised questions about their impact on prices and the economy. While some may assume that any disruption leads to rising inflation, the current situation actually points toward a deflationary bias at least for now. Here is why. When local businesses face disruptions, especially small ones, it …
April came with blood on the screen. Stocks sold off, yields surged, and the Fed kept its poker face. Retail panicked. But one group didn’t buy the dip: hedge funds. They saw the trap. Or at least they thought they did. They didn’t touch equities. Instead, they went after bonds with a vengeance. Hedge Funds …
Japan wage shock: Real wages plunge to -2.1% YoY, the worst in two years, and a deflationary disaster for the BOJ which puts a final nail in any hiking plans. If anything, BOJ should restart NIRP and boost QE (but it can't with Bessent watching its every move). pic.twitter.com/kAV3BNcQgR — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 9, 2025
A lot of talk about inflation driving gold higher, but the copper / gold ratio which is a proxy for global growth, is signaling deflationary depression. pic.twitter.com/u2hpZvZ1of — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 11, 2025 People still have no idea the decoupling is happening. Ships are no longer sending goods from China to US or US to …
2/7The FT continues: "Beijing has long fought against the “Japanification” of its economy, and has made huge investments in its high-tech, green and electric vehicle sectors with the goal of boosting long-term growth." What isn't said is that this was also Japan's strategy. — Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) November 29, 2024 4/7At the time Japan dominated …
Investors are underestimating just how behind the curve China is in stimulating its economy. Looking at the chart below, it is clear that a 5% of GDP stimulus package is the minimum needed just to prevent growth from weakening further. Investors are underestimating just how behind the curve China is in stimulating its economy. Looking …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Lest you weep for those whose phantom wealth will be drained away, recall that few win when a reserve currency dies. Labor can start earning the day after the reset, but the capital lost is gone for good. Outside the “everything’s always fine” echo-chamber, the consensus is that easily …
More disturbing news from #Germany. German #Construction #PMI cratered to 36.2 in November, approaching #COVID lows. https://t.co/rwnjssSGh5 pic.twitter.com/Xr82qi8J7y — jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) December 6, 2023 🇩🇪 The HCOB Germany Construction PMI 36.2 Lowest since April 2020!Excluding pandemic, lowest ever! Chart: https://t.co/ow763W0Jf1 #recession pic.twitter.com/8p3Nvnt1e9 — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) December 6, 2023