Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 25-26, 2023: “Various participants commented on risks that could affect some banks, including unrealized losses on assets resulting from rising interest rates, significant reliance on uninsured deposits, and increased funding costs.”

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20230726.htm Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations: The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period. Market participants interpreted data releases as generally demonstrating economic resilience and a further …

READ MORE

10-year yields rise above pre-SVB collapse, highest since 2009. Higher nominal yields impact corporate bonds, increasing refinancing costs. Will we see another blow-up in the next few weeks?

Real yields on 10-year Treasuries closed yesterday at the highest since 2009. pic.twitter.com/Ujfb0Lco7l — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 15, 2023 Nominal yields keep going higher and this affects corporate bonds $LQD, therefore cost of refinancing is increasing. We can expect …

READ MORE

Energy stocks are 5% below highs, indicating oil’s potential return of 48%, impacting Fed policy and financial markets. Rate hikes probability decreases, but odds of rate cuts drop, with no cuts until May 2024.

Energy stocks are only 5% away from recent highs. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe oil won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 48% return from its current levels. As a crucial contributor to …

READ MORE

Car insurance rates hit highest levels in 30 years due to more accidents, higher repair costs, bigger medical bills and increased litigation

via naturalnews: Rates of car insurance have hit highest levels in the past 30 years as cost of claims soared since the pandemic, due to more accidents, higher repair costs, bigger medical bills and increased litigation.   The Wall Street Journal reported that many insurers have experienced …

READ MORE

Federal Reserve Alert! Beige Book July 12, 2023: “many contacts reported an inability to fully pass on increased costs to consumers, which has compressed margins.” Is the ‘Greedflation’ Peak in Sight?

by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202307.htm Overall Economic Activity Overall economic activity increased slightly since late May. Five Districts reported slight or modest growth, five noted no change, and two reported slight and modest declines. Reports on consumer spending were mixed; growth was generally …

READ MORE

Nick Gerli: Rents in hard-hit cities like Austin, Las Vegas, and Phoenix are down 6% in the last year, with taxes, insurance, and interest costs rising. This could lead to forced selling in H2 2023.

Rents are dropping. 📉 Hardest-hit cities include Austin, Las Vegas, and Phoenix, where rental rates are down -6% over the last year. Meanwhile – taxes, insurance, and interest costs are up significantly. Cocktail that could mean forced selling in H2 …

READ MORE

Michal Stupavsky: ‘Buying NVIDIA shares today costs you 40 times historical annual revenues. That’s 40 years to get your money back, assuming $0 cost, 0% tax and a 100% payout ratio.’

Buying NVIDIA shares today costs you 40 times historical annual revenues. That's 40 years to get your money back, assuming $0 cost, 0% tax and a 100% payout ratio. Good luck! pic.twitter.com/tYUZc3Ito8 — Michal Stupavsky, CFA (@MichalStupavsky) June 20, 2023 …

READ MORE