Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Investors expect perfect growth forever and punish any miss. Retail feels real pain from tired consumers. Levi shows the warning signs for whole sector. More misses coming as spending tightens. Market punishes any slowdown even when numbers look okay. Shares drop almost 5 percent after report. Company beats analyst earnings estimates. Full year guidance raised …
PCE inflation rose to 4.1 percent annual rate in May. This up from 3.8 percent in April. Core PCE without food and energy also higher at around 3.4 percent. Energy prices main driver from ongoing Middle East issues. Real wages feel squeeze as prices outrun paychecks for many. Video from Rebel Capitalist points out this …
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index surged to 84.6 in April (way above the expected 80 and up sharply from 78.3 in March). That’s the highest reading since April 2022 and shows input costs are rising fast again, driven heavily by energy/oil prices tied to the Middle East situation. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-prices The overall Manufacturing PMI held …
by Martin Armstrong QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Are you familiar with Professor Easterbrook of Western Washington University who agrees with you and is projecting a decline in temperatures for the next three decades? It seems that those who simply claim that it has been getting warmer live in a bubble of biased news. One even said to me that it …
🇺🇸US PPI came in at 2.6% Expected – 2.7% This means core inflation is cooling down. Chance for Fed to cut interest rates goes up. — Ted (@TedPillows) November 25, 2025 Polymarket now has Fed cutting in December at 86%, big V from 20-% a week ago 👀 pic.twitter.com/pDQkswroxv — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) November 25, 2025
Heat waves rolled in early in 2025. June is already delivering record highs in many parts of the country. Your HVAC system might be strained, energy bills climbing and comfort slipping away. That’s when smart maintenance and tweaks pay off. Start with your air filter. Many homeowners use high MERV filters to block allergens, but …
"We see a housing crisis coming next." "Home prices need to come down." pic.twitter.com/zHXHKIF8lm — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 27, 2025 We have the biggest gap ever between Home Prices and Mortgage Rates in 2025. Prices are 90% above the 130-year average. Meanwhile, Mortgage Rates are right around the long-term average (6.7%). The resulting gap …
WELLS FARGO + COWEN FLAG AWS DATA CENTER LEASING PAUSE Both banks say $AMZN AWS has hit pause on some colo leasing deals—mainly international. Cowen notes hyperscale demand is cooling a bit, especially in Europe, with Amazon slightly pulling back on U.S. colocation activity too.… pic.twitter.com/aS5vN7UwnK — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) April 21, 2025
Fire breaks out at nuclear plant after Ukrainian attack – governor (VIDEO) The Zaporozhye facility has been put into cold shutdown as a precaution while emergency workers fight the blaze The Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the largest such facility in Europe, has caught fire after being shelled by Ukrainian forces, the governor of Russia’s …
Alas, looks like the US economy is cooling quicker than most analysts think. The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index has dropped to a 9-year low. pic.twitter.com/bnVdCfKfGj — David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) July 4, 2024 🇺🇸 Although FOMC minutes included some saying rates "might need to be raised", our old Fed model continues to point to a …
The pandemic left the U.S. labor market badly overheated. Reopening businesses panicked at labor shortages, paying big raises to hire. As prices shot higher, fears rose of a wage-price spiral. Recently, though, the labor market has cooled, and indeed, looks like something close to normal. Unemployment has crept up from a half-century low of 3.4% …
Supply is starting to build, which is leading to the cooling in prices. Total active listings are now 35% higher than they were at this time a year ago, according to Realtor.com. To put that in perspective, however, even after the recent growth, inventory is still down more than 30% from typical pre-pandemic levels. “Some …
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly has indeed warned that the U.S. labor market is approaching an inflection point. She emphasized that further slowing in the labor market could lead to higher unemployment. While the labor market has adjusted slowly so far, Daly cautioned that we are getting closer to a point where this benign outcome may …
By Martin Armstrong Davos man John Kerry is continuing to “pledge” for stricter regulations on behalf of the people after the United Nations climate change summit (COP28). He already committed $3 billion to eliminating coal and believes emissions could be slashed by 68% come 2050. Now, John Kerry is out to eliminate the energy we …
In a stunning move, President Biden has declared a national emergency and invoked Cold War-era wartime powers to restrict access to heating and cooling technology. Ali Zaidi, who serves as Biden's national climate advisor, said the president was "using his wartime emergency powers under the Defense Production Act to turbocharge U.S. manufacturing of clean technologies …
by DesmondMilesDant The data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 26th showed that real GDP growth in the third quarter was 4.9 percent, 0.5 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on October 25th. This suggests that inflationary pressures may be starting to build in the economy and could …
by bitkogan In a classic case of “bad news is good news” sentiment, the stock market seems to be embracing the notion that a cooling labor market could trigger interest rate cuts. However, the Federal Reserve has made it clear they’re data-dependent. As such, the Fed has not committed to implementing rate cuts that are …
via naturalnews: The global takedown of reliable and affordable fossil fuel energy is a threat to national sovereignty, energy independence, and the stability of societies around the globe. Worse, the war against fossil fuels impacts the poor and the elderly the most. As energy is rationed, as the cost of transportation, heating, and cooling is forced …
Early signs of cooling labor market. Might take time, but its happening.$TLT and $GLD back in action. Also closely look at the steepening of curve, that is the most important thing to watch now. pic.twitter.com/P52O05Lisu — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) June 8, 2023 US jobless claims mysteriously surge upon "data" revision US jobs mysteriously revised …