Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
HONG KONG — China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the second consecutive month in June, as investors pin their hopes on a key Communist Party meeting in mid-July to revive the sluggish economy. The country’s benchmark purchasing managers’ index came in at 49.5 for the month, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Sunday. The reading …
The US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) has dropped 14.7% from its peak in this economic cycle. Historically, such a decline has only occurred during recessions over the past 65 years. The index considers data from the US labor market, manufacturing sector, building permits, S&P 500, and bonds. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), designed to …
🚨 BREAKING: Pay-To-Play Scandal Involving AZ's Democrat Governor Unfolding State contractor donated $400,000 to Gov. Katie Hobbs and AZ Democrats, and got millions more in state money DCS over the course of the past year approved what amounts to a nearly 60% increase in the… pic.twitter.com/wqX1vnAuvN — Jake Hoffman (@JakeHoffmanAZ) June 5, 2024 Arizona Governor …
Unprecedented disparity emerges between French CPI and PPI, with the latter contracting to levels resembling 2008. Meanwhile, Italy experiences a decline in its inflation rate, recording a growth of 0.2% in April, below market expectations, signaling potential economic challenges ahead. A larger gap between French CPI & PPI (Y-o-Y %) hasn't been seen before. PPI …
via Mike Shedlock Economists expected ISM manufacturing to improve to a nearly flat 49.5. Instead the index fell to 47.8 from 49.1. ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM® Please consider the February 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® emphasis mine. The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in February, as the Manufacturing …
In a bold move against discrimination, Idaho legislators have introduced Senate Bill 1291, aiming to prevent companies that engage in discriminatory practices from securing contracts with the state government. The measure specifically targets those discriminating against firearms-related businesses, while also extending protection to other industries frequently targeted by discriminatory actions. If passed, Senate Bill 1291 …
S&P Global: composite PMI shows service sector expansion outpacing manufacturing contraction w/ business confidence rising and fastest private sector growth in 6 months, though still very low by historical standards – we’re basically coming off near-zero: S&P Global: composite PMI shows service sector expansion outpacing manufacturing contraction w/ business confidence rising and fastest private sector …
Recent indicators suggest a potential shift as M2 money supply contracts sharply. While inflation has been the norm in recent years, notable declines in asset prices, such as a 25% drop in used car prices and a 50% decrease in egg prices in 2023, raise questions about deflation risks. Examining historical patterns, instances of deflation …
A trader recently dropped a cool $16.7 million on about 250,000 call contracts tied to the VIX Index, betting on increased stock market volatility. This isn’t your average move – the strike price is 17, expiring on Feb. 14. With the VIX not breaking 17 since November, it’s got everyone buzzing. Seems our trader senses …
The latest report from the Federal Reserve reveals a slowdown in U.S. consumer-credit growth for October. Consumer credit expanded at a 1.2% annual rate, a significant drop from the 3% rate observed in September. October saw a total consumer credit increase of $5.2 billion, down from the prior month’s gain of $12.2 billion. Contrary to …
Houston – Houston public works and the city’s office of inspector general now -“turning over every rock” in pursuit of the so-called “bad actors” involved with handing out more than $8 million worth of water repair contracts to family members with pop-up businesses. Make no mistake, it is blatant corruption – neither the O-I-G nor …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve reminds me of The Stones’ song “Tumbling Dice.” Why? The Fed can’t tell if inflation is cooling or re-accelerating. Hence, they are just rolling dice. Let’s start with mortgage rates, a critical component of the housing and CRE markets. Mortgage rates remain up 163% since 2021, not great for housing affordability. Despite …
Japan grapples with a pivotal moment as its key inflation measure shows the first acceleration in four months, hinting at potential inflationary pressures. Simultaneously, the nation faces a persistent downturn in factory activity, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction, intensifying speculation about the Bank of Japan’s imminent pivot away from NIRP (Negative Interest Rate …
The alarming contraction in bank credit, an event occurring only once in the past 50 years, adds a foreboding dimension to the rapid depletion of the 2 trillion-dollar Reverse Repo pot. As Wall Street grapples with financing challenges for Washington’s deficits, the ominous trajectory raises concerns about the stability of the financial system. At this …
The convergence of contracting manufacturing, a downward trend in Goldman’s Capex tracker, and business inventory nearing contraction levels raises ominous parallels with past economic downturns. This alarming pattern, witnessed during the Dot Com bubble, the Financial Crisis, and the Pandemic, underscores potential challenges ahead for the economy. Manufacturing pic.twitter.com/7NYfAV8mVk — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) November …
Retail gamblers are trapped. After the best first half for Tech stocks in 40 years, institutions are dumping Tech stocks in the second half.https://t.co/It9OGJH69b Retail gamblers are trapped. pic.twitter.com/9ApQOQSKeP — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 10, 2023 Microsoft has been the most consistently dominant company of the past two decades. pic.twitter.com/7FiBWGSeS5 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 10, 2023 …
“Despite US economic activity sharply contracting, the market has been moving higher This is not the time to FOMO” Despite US economic activity sharply contracting, the market has been moving higher This is not the time to FOMO pic.twitter.com/LymLphScDd — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 5, 2023 “The labor market has begun weakening Jobless claims has …