Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
First monthly decline since 2022. Fixed asset investment dropping 4.1 percent. Manufacturing and real estate sectors struggling. Industrial output showing slight improvement. Domestic consumption remaining extremely fragile. Internal demand failing to keep pace. Structural headwinds intensifying across major sectors.
The just-released Chicago PMI measure has fallen to 36.3, missing the consensus forecast of 45.5 and deepening what is now a two-year contraction in Midwest business activity.It starkly illustrates the continued dominance of services growth over a struggling manufacturing… — Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) November 26, 2025 The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 36.3 in …
M2 money supply is a key indicator of liquidity It represents the total amount of money in circulation Expanding M2 money supply = Increasing liquidity Contracting M2 money supply = Tightening liquidity — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 25, 2025 The NASDAQ Composite is up more than 1% for 4 straight days. In the past 30 …
As said before: German economy is and has been strongly focused on export. Currently Germany is losing two of his three biggest export markets (USA and China) while the latter also became a huge competitor on international markets in the last two decades… What else should happen to German economy under these circumstances? Especially since …
BREAKING: The median duration of unemployment in the US rose to 10.5 weeks in November, the longest in 3 years. At the same time, the average unemployment duration rose to 23.7 weeks, the highest since April 2022. Both metrics have been now rising at the pace previously seen at the onset of the last 4 …
by confoundedinterest17 Not a great sign for the mighty US economy. This morning, the flash PMI for manufacturing printed at 47.8. Three straight months of print below 50 means … contraction. Do I say contraction?
Only need it to contract another $4-5 trillion so we can afford things again. pic.twitter.com/SPu4jtzqGy — Tim Cronin (@Brenin8787) September 23, 2024
The United States manufacturing sector remains in deep contraction when it should be soaring. via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/W3bL4wFEVs — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) August 15, 2024
Starting in 2021, we saw a decline in a measure of the U.S. money supply called the M2 money supply. M2 includes cash in circulation, deposit accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit. It’s basically all the easily accessible money in the country. By 2022, amid tightening policies from the Federal Reserve, year-over-year growth in the M2 …
Japan's Jul flash composite PMI shows return to expansion though manufacturing remains in contraction; they are so laden w/ unbelievable debt loads that any attempts to prop up their currency are crushing their economy – this is where the US is headed, so take heed… pic.twitter.com/fsmz1z7Dif — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 25, 2024 Lower …
via Mike Shedlock The Manufacturing ISM was in contraction for 16 months went positive for a month and is contracting again for two months with order backlogs falling for 20 months. ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM® Please consider the May 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® emphasis mine. Economic …
#recession … #GFC2 US #manufacturing edition KC Fed leading index of new orders falls further into contraction 📉 👀 https://t.co/eiEe2sKxk3 pic.twitter.com/Jus16lkISa — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) May 23, 2024
via Mike Shedlock The ISM manufacturing index is back in contraction after a one month reprieve, but prices expand sharply. It’s a bad mix. ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM® The April 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® looks dismal except for production. The U.S. manufacturing sector dropped back into …
The probability of an outright contraction keeps getting higher and higher with each successive release. Ford projecting a *30%* decrease in commercial chassis orders: What this means: If you're ordering fewer chassis, you're likely producing fewer vehicles. But 30% is a big number. Image below is a layoff notice (WARN) filed by one of Ford's …
M2 money supply is contracting for the FIRST time since the 1930s ht g.o.t. pic.twitter.com/saWAj4OSoS — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) January 14, 2024 In the intricate web of economic indicators, a disconcerting picture emerges, suggesting a looming period of stagnation. The M2 money supply is contracting for the first time since the 1930s, a historical …
NEW – U.S. manufacturing performance slipped further into "contraction territory" in December as demand conditions weakened. pic.twitter.com/S18SRkzlmg — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 2, 2024 US Manufacturing Sector Slump Accelerates In December: Orders Down, Prices Up US Manufacturing saw only two months in 2023 that were not in contraction and ended on a decidedly poor note with …
by confoundedinterest17 The Empire (State) Strikes Out! Contraction (or economic slowdown) is hitting New York State! After three strong ‘beats’ in a row, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey crashed back into contraction, well below expectations in December (from +9.1 to -14.5, +2.0 exp). The drop takes the measure from ‘expansion’ at 7-month-highs to ‘contraction’ at 4-month-lows… …
The convergence of contracting manufacturing, a downward trend in Goldman’s Capex tracker, and business inventory nearing contraction levels raises ominous parallels with past economic downturns. This alarming pattern, witnessed during the Dot Com bubble, the Financial Crisis, and the Pandemic, underscores potential challenges ahead for the economy. Manufacturing pic.twitter.com/7NYfAV8mVk — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) November …
As gold in Japan inches closer to another record-breaking high, the economic woes persist, with the country’s economy contracting at its most rapid annualized quarterly pace in two years during the third quarter. This juxtaposition underscores the prevailing economic challenges and the continued appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. Gold …
Financial markets are sounding the alarm bells as the M2 money supply experiences unprecedented levels of contraction. Notably, this is the first time in U.S. history that Treasuries have recorded three consecutive years of losses. The concern deepens with reports of a substantial rally in U.S. bonds last week, primarily driven by hedge funds that …
Corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. have surged by 30% over the past year, signaling the end of the easy money era and a sobering wake-up call for companies. Good Morning Everyone! Corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. rose by +30% over the past 12 months. "We're already on track to double the mega bankruptcies compared to …
The situation is getting serious as banks are experiencing one of the sharpest declines in lending activity ever recorded. This means they’re not lending money as readily as before. At this rate, we might be heading towards a “credit event,” which essentially means a big problem in the world of credit and lending. Moreover, banks …
Canadian Inflation Climbs to 4.0% in August, Driven by Soaring Gasoline Prices – Bank of Canada Pauses Rate Hikes Amid Economic Contraction In August, Canada experienced a notable inflation rate surge, reaching 4.0%, primarily attributed to the steep rise in gasoline prices. This rapid increase in consumer prices has raised concerns about the overall economic …
Is the US in recession already like Germany? Latest jobs numbers weren't encouraging at all (even before revisions). In fact, that weakness is starting to look like other significant data suggesting more than possible contraction. HAPPY LABOR DAY? pic.twitter.com/ijCik2ZYb2 — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) September 4, 2023 Staggering figures reveal 1.2MILLION US-born workers lost their …
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index plummets to -20 in July, signaling sharp contraction in the regions mfg activity. pic.twitter.com/98y7PpgAn1 — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) July 27, 2023 Kansas Fed Composite Index edges up to -11 in July from -12 in June, but don't be deceived by modest gains. The economy remains entrenched in weakness. Beneath the surface, …
But even Services report points to severe contraction in economic activity: – Employment 53.3 (last 54.0)– Export orders 45.3 (48.6)– Price Pressure 60.4 (60.5) pic.twitter.com/zkpiC4vTQM — Mario Cavaggioni (@CavaggioniMario) July 24, 2023 WOW! #Germany's Manufacturing #PMI plummeted to 38.8, which points to outright #recession.Services held above 50.So, is this time different, and will Germany's self-inflicted …
Retail gamblers are trapped. After the best first half for Tech stocks in 40 years, institutions are dumping Tech stocks in the second half.https://t.co/It9OGJH69b Retail gamblers are trapped. pic.twitter.com/9ApQOQSKeP — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 10, 2023 Microsoft has been the most consistently dominant company of the past two decades. pic.twitter.com/7FiBWGSeS5 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 10, 2023 …
by BoatSurfer600 Source: Sagar Singh LinkedIn Labour market still remains hot as shortages loom. The stagflation is upon us in Europe. pic.twitter.com/Nyt39eG6JV — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) June 28, 2023 Remember 2008? It’s happening again! Some European countries are exhibiting activity similar to the 2008 GFC. The cyclical sectors of the economy are facing a …
by confoundedinterest17 Sweet Home Chicago? The Chicago Business barometer printed at 41.5, still in contraction as M2 Money growth evaporates. living la vida Biden! Meanwhile, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve remains inverted at -105 basis points.
“The German Yield Curve is the mot inverted its been in over 31 years. This may signal an impending recession. Also the German economy: -6.1% Inflation -Contraction in PMI from May to June -GDP forecasted to fall in Q2” Source: https://t.co/kognkNxLL6 — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) June 27, 2023 “WSJ: Germany has become a drag …