The just-released Chicago PMI measure has fallen to 36.3, missing the consensus forecast of 45.5 and deepening what is now a two-year contraction in Midwest business activity.
It starkly illustrates the continued dominance of services growth over a struggling manufacturing…— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) November 26, 2025
The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 36.3 in November 2025 from 43.8 in the prior month and against market estimates of 44.3. This was the 24th consecutive month with readings below the neutral 50 threshold, signaling a solid contraction in Chicago’s economic activity and the sharpest since May 2024. The sub-indexes of new orders, production and employment all declined. Meanwhile, supplier deliveries went up.